Fresh carnations or all thorn, no rose? Non-violent campaigns and transitions in autocracies

The authors argue that non-violent direct action is more effective at undermining autocracies and significantly more likely to lead to democratic transitions than violent conflict. Using a multinomial logit model for the period 1900-2004, the study finds that non-violent campaigns substantially increase the probability of democratization, particularly when the state has a high proportion of democratic neighbors. Conversely, violent direct action is less effective at destabilizing regimes overall and makes transitions to new autocracies relatively more likely. The research suggests that non-violence promotes power dispersion and elite defection, whereas violence tends to centralize power and justify further repression.

• Non-violent direct action significantly increases the probability of a transition to democracy compared to autocratic survival.
• Violent direct action is less effective at undermining autocracies than non-violent action and is more likely to result in the emergence of a new autocratic regime.
• The likelihood of a transition to democracy following non-violent dissent is strongly influenced by the regional context, specifically the number of democratic neighboring states.
• Non-violent campaigns are theorized to be more effective than violent ones because they can mobilize larger populations, lower barriers to participation, and increase the costs of government repression.
• Non-violent movements are more likely to lead to democracy because they disperse power among a diverse coalition of actors, whereas violent conflict tends to centralize power and polarize the environment.
• The presence of democratic neighbors not only increases the baseline probability of democratization but also reduces the likelihood of a transition to a new autocracy.
• Regime age acts as a consolidation factor; autocratic regimes that have been in power for a shorter duration are more likely to fall.

APA

Celestino, M. R., & Gleditsch, K. S. (n.d.). Fresh carnations or all thorn, no rose? Non-violent campaigns and transitions in autocracies. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/afe85131-a749-4ba6-866e-57a43fa4668f/Fresh carnations or all thorn no rose Nonviolent campaigns and transitions in autocracies.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Celestino, Mauricio Rivera, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. Fresh carnations or all thorn, no rose? Non-violent campaigns and transitions in autocracies. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/afe85131-a749-4ba6-866e-57a43fa4668f/Fresh carnations or all thorn no rose Nonviolent campaigns and transitions in autocracies.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Celestino |first1=Mauricio Rivera |last2=Gleditsch |first2=Kristian Skrede |title=Fresh carnations or all thorn, no rose? Non-violent campaigns and transitions in autocracies |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/afe85131-a749-4ba6-866e-57a43fa4668f/Fresh carnations or all thorn no rose Nonviolent campaigns and transitions in autocracies.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{celestinondfresh, author = {Celestino, Mauricio Rivera and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede}, title = {{Fresh carnations or all thorn, no rose? Non-violent campaigns and transitions in autocracies}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/afe85131-a749-4ba6-866e-57a43fa4668f/Fresh carnations or all thorn no rose Nonviolent campaigns and transitions in autocracies.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }