Population, Resources and Political Violence: A Sub-National Study of India 1956-2002

The study finds that sub-national analysis provides stronger support for the resource scarcity-conflict nexus than global studies. Specifically, organized armed conflict is more likely in Indian states with scarce productive land and declining agricultural wages. Youth bulges are a consistent predictor of all three forms of political violence, with the risk of armed conflict increasing further in states with high male-to-female ratios. While linguistic fractionalization and Hindu relative growth are linked to armed conflict, and religious heterogeneity and non-Hindu majorities are linked to riots, the study finds little evidence that rural inequality or urban growth rates drive political violence.

• Sub-national analysis of India provides more support for the resource scarcity and conflict scenario than recent global studies, suggesting that national aggregates may fail to capture local population dynamics that drive low-intensity conflicts.
• Organized armed conflict in India is positively associated with high rural population density relative to productive land and long-term declines in agricultural wages.
• The risk of political violent events increases when high rural population density interacts with either high rural population growth or low agricultural yields.
• Youth bulges are the only demographic factor statistically associated with an increased risk of all three forms of political violence: armed conflict, political violent events, and riots.
• The impact of youth bulges on armed conflict is particularly pronounced in states with a high proportion of males relative to females.
• Hindu-Muslim riots are more likely in states with high religious heterogeneity, those with a non-Hindu majority, and in cases where youth bulges coincide with high urban inequality.
• Differential growth rates between religious groups have a limited impact; while high relative growth of the Hindu population increases the risk of armed conflict, it does not increase the risk of less organized political violence.
• Contrary to some resource scarcity theories, rural inequality (measured by the GINI coefficient) and urban population growth rates do not appear to increase the risk of political violence in India.
• Linguistic fractionalization is associated with a higher risk of organized armed conflict.

APA

Urdal, H. (n.d.). Population, Resources and Political Violence: A Sub-National Study of India 1956-2002. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d022b83d-1128-4b31-a2c3-d188014a3f99/Population Resources and Political Violence A Subnational Study of India 1956-2002.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Urdal, Henrik. Population, Resources and Political Violence: A Sub-National Study of India 1956-2002. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d022b83d-1128-4b31-a2c3-d188014a3f99/Population Resources and Political Violence A Subnational Study of India 1956-2002.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Urdal |first1=Henrik |title=Population, Resources and Political Violence: A Sub-National Study of India 1956-2002 |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d022b83d-1128-4b31-a2c3-d188014a3f99/Population Resources and Political Violence A Subnational Study of India 1956-2002.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{urdalndpopulation, author = {Urdal, Henrik}, title = {{Population, Resources and Political Violence: A Sub-National Study of India 1956-2002}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d022b83d-1128-4b31-a2c3-d188014a3f99/Population Resources and Political Violence A Subnational Study of India 1956-2002.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }