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Population, Resources and Political Violence: A Sub-National Study of India 1956-2002
The study finds that sub-national analysis provides stronger support for the resource scarcity-conflict nexus than global studies. Specifically, organized armed conflict is more likely in Indian states with scarce productive land and declining agricultural wages. Youth bulges are a consistent predictor of all three forms of political violence, with the risk of armed conflict increasing further in states with high male-to-female ratios. While linguistic fractionalization and Hindu relative growth are linked to armed conflict, and religious heterogeneity and non-Hindu majorities are linked to riots, the study finds little evidence that rural inequality or urban growth rates drive political violence.
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Document type: Research paper