Climate change, natural disasters and post-disaster unrest in India

The study finds that climate-related natural disasters in India have a conditional and generally weak relationship with violent conflict. While disasters can increase the risk of politically motivated violence in areas with low literacy (low development), they are associated with an increased risk of riots in areas with higher literacy. However, the author concludes that these statistical relations are not substantively large enough to suggest that post-disaster violence is a major problem in India, as the direct damages from disasters likely dwarf the damages from ensuing unrest.

• Climate-related natural disasters can increase the risk of riots and politically motivated violence, but this effect is conditioned by the level of development, proxied by literacy rates.
• For riots, the risk increases as the level of development (literacy) increases, contradicting the hypothesis that violence is highest at low levels of development.
• For politically motivated violence, the risk is highest in populations with low literacy levels and decreases as development increases.
• Among different types of disasters, floods show a stronger link to the occurrence of riots than other climate-related events.
• Storms have a positive and statistically significant relationship with politically motivated violence, though the practical impact on the frequency of events is small.
• The overall statistical significance of the findings does not translate into substantively large changes in predicted violence rates.
• The author argues that the direct human and property damages caused by natural disasters in India are likely far greater than the damages caused by any subsequent post-disaster unrest.
• The study observes a real increase in climate-related disasters in India over the analyzed period, while geological disasters remained stable, suggesting the increase is not merely due to better reporting.

APA

Slettebak, R. T. (n.d.). Climate change, natural disasters and post-disaster unrest in India. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5d79953d-09a1-4f7c-a1c6-c08d93f88da8/Climate Change Natural Disasters and Post-Disaster Unrest in India.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Slettebak, Rune T. Climate change, natural disasters and post-disaster unrest in India. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5d79953d-09a1-4f7c-a1c6-c08d93f88da8/Climate Change Natural Disasters and Post-Disaster Unrest in India.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Slettebak |first1=Rune T. |title=Climate change, natural disasters and post-disaster unrest in India |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5d79953d-09a1-4f7c-a1c6-c08d93f88da8/Climate Change Natural Disasters and Post-Disaster Unrest in India.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{slettebakndclimate, author = {Slettebak, Rune T.}, title = {{Climate change, natural disasters and post-disaster unrest in India}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5d79953d-09a1-4f7c-a1c6-c08d93f88da8/Climate Change Natural Disasters and Post-Disaster Unrest in India.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }