Disaggregated determinants of aid: Development aid projects in the Philippines

The paper finds that while low Human Development Index (HDI) levels predict aid for excluded group-majority provinces, overall aid distribution is significantly biased in favour of the politically dominant Christian lowlanders. Previous exposure to armed conflict increases the likelihood of new projects only in Christian-majority provinces, and previous disaster exposure is a weak, sometimes negative, predictor of aid across all provinces.

• Domestic political alliances are a stronger predictor of aid distribution than objective need, with provinces receiving more projects as the share of the population belonging to the politically dominant group, the Christian lowlanders, increases.
• The relationship between development need and aid is conditional on political affiliation; low Human Development Index (HDI) levels significantly predict aid inflow specifically in provinces where excluded groups are the majority.
• Exposure to armed conflict increases the likelihood of receiving new aid projects, but this effect is limited to provinces inhabited by the politically dominant group.
• Previous exposure to rapid-onset natural disasters is not a substantial predictor of aid distribution and may even be weakly associated with a lower likelihood of receiving new projects.
• The findings suggest that the Philippine government exercises significant discretion over the distribution of multilateral aid, often rewarding political supporters regardless of the donor's stated priorities regarding disaster mitigation or conflict-affected populations.

APA

Rosvold, E. L. (n.d.). Disaggregated determinants of aid: Development aid projects in the Philippines. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1f616c5b-0e22-444f-9c9a-fe9e0aa31e4c/Rosvold-2019-Development_Policy_Review.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Rosvold, Elisabeth L. Disaggregated determinants of aid: Development aid projects in the Philippines. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1f616c5b-0e22-444f-9c9a-fe9e0aa31e4c/Rosvold-2019-Development_Policy_Review.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rosvold |first1=Elisabeth L. |title=Disaggregated determinants of aid: Development aid projects in the Philippines |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1f616c5b-0e22-444f-9c9a-fe9e0aa31e4c/Rosvold-2019-Development_Policy_Review.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rosvoldnddisaggregated, author = {Rosvold, Elisabeth L.}, title = {{Disaggregated determinants of aid: Development aid projects in the Philippines}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1f616c5b-0e22-444f-9c9a-fe9e0aa31e4c/Rosvold-2019-Development_Policy_Review.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }