Ethnic inclusion, democracy, and terrorism

The research argues that ethnic terrorism declines when governments implement accommodation strategies, such as granting political power or regional autonomy to marginalized groups. Using a dataset linking the Global Terrorism Database to the Ethnic Power Relations project, the authors find that moves away from active discrimination significantly reduce the expected number of terrorist attacks. While transitions to democracy generally reduce ethnic terrorism, the effect is heterogeneous, with some Asian countries showing increased activity. The study also notes that while overall terrorism declines after accommodation, attacks by splinter groups may increase as hardliners reject settlements.

• Ethnic terrorism is strongly associated with political exclusion; more than two-thirds of all terrorist attacks in the sample were carried out by politically excluded ethnic groups.
• Moves away from active discrimination against an ethnic group lead to a statistically significant reduction in the number of expected terrorist attacks.
• Political inclusion—defined as having a monopoly, being dominant, or being a partner in power-sharing or regional autonomy—is associated with fewer terrorist attacks compared to excluded groups.
• Transitions to democracy generally reduce ethnic terrorism, but this effect is not universal; in some Asian countries, such as Indonesia, Nepal, and the Philippines, terrorism increased after transitions.
• Accommodation can create internal divisions within ethnic groups, leading to an increase in attacks by splinter groups even as overall terrorism declines.
• The historical record of Western Europe, specifically cases like the FLNC in Corsica and the IRA in Northern Ireland, supports the claim that political concessions and autonomy reduce the appeal of violent separatism.
• The authors estimate that without the moves toward accommodation observed in their data, there would have been approximately 1,800 additional predicted terrorist attacks, an increase of over 60%.

APA

Gleditsch, K. S., & Polo, S. M. T. (n.d.). Ethnic inclusion, democracy, and terrorism. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/440dd590-d2c4-4bba-9548-c3a7bce30382/Ethnic Inclusion Democracy and Terrorism.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Sara M. T. Polo. Ethnic inclusion, democracy, and terrorism. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/440dd590-d2c4-4bba-9548-c3a7bce30382/Ethnic Inclusion Democracy and Terrorism.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gleditsch |first1=Kristian Skrede |last2=Polo |first2=Sara M. T. |title=Ethnic inclusion, democracy, and terrorism |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/440dd590-d2c4-4bba-9548-c3a7bce30382/Ethnic Inclusion Democracy and Terrorism.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gleditschndethnic, author = {Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Polo, Sara M. T.}, title = {{Ethnic inclusion, democracy, and terrorism}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/440dd590-d2c4-4bba-9548-c3a7bce30382/Ethnic Inclusion Democracy and Terrorism.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }