Search Climate Insights Directory

The document introduces a new integrated modelling framework to assess the simultaneous impacts of agricultural systems on climate change and human health. Using data from 2014–2018, the model estimates global emissions of methane, nitrous oxide, and ammonia, while quantifying deaths associated with dietary risks, malnutrition, obesity, and air pollution. The results are consistent with previous independent studies, suggesting the model can be used to evaluate agricultural strategies that balance food demand with the minimization of health and climate impacts.

The report argues that stopping the expansion of fossil fuels is insufficient to meet the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement; instead, an active wind-down of existing production is required. It proposes specific annual decline rates for coal (9.5%), oil (8.5%), and gas (3.5%) between 2021 and 2030. The authors conclude that this transition is technically feasible because global solar and wind potential could meet primary energy demand more than 50 times over, ensuring 100% energy access without risking energy security.

The document analyzes the potential volume of CERs eligible for transition to NDCs based on different restriction criteria. It finds that the total supply potential for reductions in or after 2013 exceeds 4 billion CERs without restrictions, but this figure drops significantly depending on whether registration dates or crediting period start dates are used as cut-offs.

The research evaluates future food security using the FEEDME model, incorporating IPCC climate scenarios and Shared Socio-economic Pathways. The findings suggest that while climate change affects crop yields, population growth is the primary driver of undernourishment prevalence, with rapid population growth correlating with the worst food security outcomes.

The document introduces the LEAP-IBC tool, which quantifies the co-benefits of reducing greenhouse gases and short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) on public health and air quality. Applying this framework to Bangladesh's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and National Action Plan to reduce SLCPs, the study finds that full implementation by 2030 would significantly reduce emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, black carbon, and PM2.5, leading to a decrease in ambient PM2.5 concentrations and the avoidance of approximately 112,000 premature deaths.

The study compares three socio-economic scenarios (SSP1-3) across three models (IMAGE, GLOBIOM, and PLUMv2) to evaluate the impact of cropland expansion on biodiversity and carbon storage. It finds substantial variation between the nine projections, with the choice of model explaining a greater proportion of the variance than the scenario used. IMAGE and GLOBIOM project the highest impacts on carbon and biodiversity, while SSP1 projects the lowest, though still significant, impacts.

The study models the impact of climate change and mining on the Chindwin River, finding that future climate scenarios are likely to reduce streamflow and associated metal loading, while identifying specific river segments with the highest concentrations of arsenic, mercury, and iron.

The paper finds that removing fossil fuel subsidies across 26 modeled countries leads to an average 6% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, which increases to 13.2% if combined with a 10% energy tax and reinvestment in renewables and energy efficiency. Globally, the removal of these subsidies is estimated to reduce emissions by 6.4% to 8.2% by 2050. The study highlights that governments save an average of USD 93 for every tonne of CO2e removed through subsidy reform, with total cumulative fiscal savings across the 26 countries reaching USD 2.56 trillion by 2030.

This research paper assesses the impact of removing consumer fossil fuel subsidies by 2025 across 26 countries, finding a simple average GHG emission reduction of 6% by 2030 compared to business as usual. The study argues that while FFSR alone is insufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals, combining it with a 10% energy tax and reallocating 30% of savings into renewable energy and energy efficiency could increase average reductions to 13.2% by 2030. It highlights that FFSR is a cost-effective tool, saving governments an average of USD 93 per tonne of CO2e removed. The paper also reviews the regressive nature of fuel subsidies and advocates for 'subsidy swaps' toward sustainable energy and social safety nets, noting that only 8% of current NDCs explicitly include FFSR.

The study finds that accelerated leaf senescence is the primary mechanism by which ozone pollution reduces crop yield, rather than direct impairment of photosynthesis in un-senesced leaves. It concludes that the Phytotoxic Ozone Dose (POD), based on stomatal O3 flux, is a more accurate predictor of physiological response than 24-hour mean concentrations or AOT40.

The document argues that Alberta's proposed methane regulations are weaker than federal rules and will fail to meet the province's 2014 pledge to reduce oil and gas emissions by 45% by 2025.

The research examines the sensitivity of electric vehicle (EV) adoption to battery costs, finding that EVs only achieve a significant global market share of 15% or more when battery costs drop to 100 $/kWh or less. While battery costs have fallen faster than previously estimated, the transport sector remains a more challenging area for greenhouse gas emission reductions compared to other sectors.

The study estimates that tropospheric ozone significantly reduces global yields for soybean, wheat, rice, and maize, with the highest losses occurring in regions already stressed by pests, heat, and nutrient deficiencies. It advocates for integrating ozone tolerance into crop breeding programmes and altering management approaches to close the 'ozone yield gap'.

The study argues that current national climate plans are insufficient and would necessitate disruptive changes after 2030. By implementing a global roll-out of regional regulatory policies across energy, transport, buildings, industry, and land use, global CO2 emissions could be reduced by an additional 10 GtCO2eq by 2030. While these policies are less disruptive than immediate global carbon pricing, they result in higher economic impacts, suggesting they should complement rather than replace carbon pricing to achieve the Paris goals.

The paper demonstrates the application of Sida's Multidimensional Poverty Analysis (MDPA) framework within the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) tool to identify inequalities in water access and land distribution in Colombia's Campoalegre Watershed. Findings reveal significant data gaps for rural areas, infrastructure capacity shortages in urban centres, and a strong correlation between small landholdings (microfundios) and an inability to meet basic food needs.

The report estimates that Agro-Manitoba has the potential to sequester between 1.3 and 3 megatonnes of CO2e per year. It evaluates six practices: wetlands, forestry, riparian buffers, minimum tillage, perennials, and cover crops, using both a maximum one-year snapshot and a 30-year cumulative approach. The analysis highlights that while cover crops and wetlands offer the highest sequestration potential, forestry and riparian buffers provide significant rates despite smaller land areas. The findings are aligned with the province's Growing Outcomes in Watersheds (GROW) program, suggesting a strong policy basis for incentivizing these practices to offset emissions from Manitoba's agricultural sector.

The document presents the CRAFTY-Sweden model, which simulates future land use and ecosystem services in Sweden. Findings suggest that socio-economic changes and owner behavior have a greater influence on land-use change than climatic effects on productivity. The model predicts an increase in timber harvesting and a decoupling between the supply and demand of forest ecosystem services.

The study developed a WEAP system model for the Quiroz-Chipillico watershed in Peru's Piura region to address the lack of understanding regarding hydrological processes in tropical páramo wetlands. By simulating various scenarios based on stakeholder input, the model assesses river headflow, reservoir levels, and downstream water demand. The findings indicate that while climate variables like temperature and precipitation influence water production, land use changes are expected to be the primary driver of hydrological responses in the páramo and their subsequent downstream effects.

This research paper describes a 2012 re-assessment of LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) model results concerning CO2 and SO2 emissions within the Strategic Environmental Assessment of the Estonian National Energy Sector Development Plan until 2020.

The document argues that agricultural management is overly driven by food production, leading to a decline in the ecosystems it depends on. It advocates for an ecosystem-based approach to food security and introduces semantic meta-modelling as a tool to integrate various models and quantify trade-offs between crop yields and regulating services like water quality and climate regulation. Using a case study in the Basque Country, the authors demonstrate that informed farming practices, such as adjusting manure application and reducing tillage, can significantly reduce emissions and nitrate leaching without necessarily compromising winter wheat yields.