Future cropland expansion, biodiversity and carbon storage modelling

This research paper by the Stockholm Environment Institute evaluates the uncertainties in projections of future cropland expansion and its subsequent impact on biodiversity and carbon storage. By comparing three socio-economic scenarios (SSP1-3) across three models (IMAGE, GLOBIOM, and PLUMv2), the study finds that the choice of model influences results more than the chosen scenario, highlighting a need for improved accuracy in land-based modelling to better prioritise the protection of carbon-rich and biodiverse areas.

• The study compared three socio-economic scenarios (SSP1-3) across three specific models—IMAGE, GLOBIOM, and PLUMv2—to assess impacts on biodiversity metrics and direct carbon loss from soil and biomass resulting from cropland expansion. The results indicated substantial variation among the nine projections, with little overlap between them.
• Among the scenarios, SSP1 is projected to have the least impact, though significant impacts are still expected. The IMAGE and GLOBIOM models project the highest impacts on biodiversity metrics and carbon storage, driven by both the location and the extent of cropland expansion.
• The analysis reveals that the choice of model explains a greater proportion of the variance for all used carbon and biodiversity metrics than the socio-economic scenarios do, underscoring the necessity of increasing the accuracy of land-based models.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2020). Future cropland expansion, biodiversity and carbon storage modelling. https://www.sei.org/publications/future-cropland-expansion-biodiversity-and-carbon-storage-modelling/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Future cropland expansion, biodiversity and carbon storage modelling. 2020. https://www.sei.org/publications/future-cropland-expansion-biodiversity-and-carbon-storage-modelling/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Future cropland expansion, biodiversity and carbon storage modelling |date=27 January 2020 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/future-cropland-expansion-biodiversity-and-carbon-storage-modelling/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2020future, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Future cropland expansion, biodiversity and carbon storage modelling}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2020}, month = jan, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/future-cropland-expansion-biodiversity-and-carbon-storage-modelling/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }