Future cropland expansion, biodiversity and carbon storage modelling

The study compares three socio-economic scenarios (SSP1-3) across three models (IMAGE, GLOBIOM, and PLUMv2) to evaluate the impact of cropland expansion on biodiversity and carbon storage. It finds substantial variation between the nine projections, with the choice of model explaining a greater proportion of the variance than the scenario used. IMAGE and GLOBIOM project the highest impacts on carbon and biodiversity, while SSP1 projects the lowest, though still significant, impacts.

• There is significant variation and little overlap across the nine projections resulting from the combination of three socio-economic scenarios (SSP1-3) and three models (IMAGE, GLOBIOM, and PLUMv2).
• The IMAGE and GLOBIOM models project the most severe impacts on biodiversity metrics and carbon storage, driven by the location and extent of cropland expansion.
• The choice of model has a larger influence on the variance of biodiversity and carbon metrics than the socio-economic scenario, highlighting a need for improved accuracy in land-based models.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2020). Future cropland expansion, biodiversity and carbon storage modelling. https://www.sei.org/publications/future-cropland-expansion-biodiversity-and-carbon-storage-modelling/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Future cropland expansion, biodiversity and carbon storage modelling. 2020. https://www.sei.org/publications/future-cropland-expansion-biodiversity-and-carbon-storage-modelling/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Future cropland expansion, biodiversity and carbon storage modelling |date=27 January 2020 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/future-cropland-expansion-biodiversity-and-carbon-storage-modelling/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2020future, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Future cropland expansion, biodiversity and carbon storage modelling}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2020}, month = jan, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/future-cropland-expansion-biodiversity-and-carbon-storage-modelling/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }