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The document outlines the existential risk posed by the approximately 12,000 nuclear warheads held by nine nations. It explains the physics of fission and fusion weapons and analyzes the catastrophic effects of detonations, ranging from immediate blast and radiation deaths in urban centers to global climate disruption. The guide highlights the instability of 'launch on warning' postures and the potential for 'nuclear winter' and ozone depletion, arguing that even regional conflicts would cause global famine and societal collapse.

The project utilizes paleotempestology—analyzing sediment cores from lagoons, stalagmite isotopic records, tree rings, and corals—to reconstruct past tropical cyclone activity. Key findings indicate that higher sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic correlate with increased hurricane activity, with notable peaks during the Medieval Warm Period (AD 900-1100) and since 1980. The research also identifies an inverse phase relationship in hurricane landfalls between Central America, the Eastern Caribbean, and the US East Coast, suggesting that the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical anticyclones are critical drivers of coastal risk. Additionally, the study expanded its scope to the Pacific coast of Mexico, identifying an extreme event in Baja California Sur approximately 500 years ago.

The project utilizes paleotempestology—analyzing coastal lagoon sediments, stalagmites, tree-rings, and corals—to reconstruct past hurricane activity in the Caribbean and Mexico. Key findings link increased hurricane activity to warmer sea surface temperatures and specific climate patterns like the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The research identifies peaks in activity during the Medieval period (AD 900-1100) and since 1980, while also noting an anti-phase relationship in landfall activity between Central America and the eastern Caribbean/U.S. East coast. Additionally, the study assesses coastal vulnerability in the U.S., noting millions of people live in low-elevation areas.

The June 2021 heatwave in British Columbia was the deadliest disaster in the province's history, resulting in 619 heat-related deaths. The report estimates the economic value of these lost lives at 5.5 billion CAD using the value of a statistical life. Key vulnerabilities identified include a lack of mechanical cooling in residential and public buildings, inadequate urban canopy, and institutional failures in emergency coordination and early warning systems. Economic impacts extended to agriculture, where producers lost at least 25 million CAD in revenue, and the labor market, with significant productivity losses. Future projections suggest that without adaptation, heat-related hospitalizations could reach 6,000 per year by 2030, and annual heat-related deaths could average 1,370 by 2030. The report recommends prioritizing mechanical cooling, urban greening, updating building codes, and improving the precision and lead time of weather warnings to three days.

This report by CPI/PUC-Rio uses an atmospheric transport model to demonstrate that deforestation in the Amazon rainforest reduces rainfall in Mato Grosso. A counterfactual analysis of the total deforestation of indigenous territories in the Xingu River Basin suggests a 7% reduction in average annual precipitation, with more severe impacts during the dry season. The study highlights the critical role of protected forest areas in sustaining agricultural productivity, hydroelectric power generation, and urban water supplies.

The report highlights that California's water system is engineered for historical conditions that no longer apply due to climate change. It identifies critical shifts in the state's hydroclimate—including declining snowpack, more extreme precipitation events, and increased volatility between wet and dry years—that threaten the viability of surface reservoirs and groundwater aquifers. The authors argue that while the data to plan for these changes is available, state and local agencies are underprepared, often relying on outdated operational rules or proprietary models. The report recommends updating the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), developing new hydrologic operations models, and increasing collaboration between climate scientists and water managers to prevent wasted investments and exacerbate inequities between well-resourced and vulnerable communities.

The report finds that China is driving the growth of the global coal fleet, adding 42.9 GW between January 2018 and June 2019 while the rest of the world's capacity decreased by 8.1 GW. This growth is largely attributed to a provincial permitting surge between 2014 and 2016, which created a pipeline of projects that the central government has struggled to restrict. Despite a recent slowdown in new proposals and permits, China has 147.7 GW of capacity either under construction or likely to be revived. The report concludes that to keep global warming well below 2°C, China would need to reduce its coal capacity to 600 GW or less by 2030, a target that contradicts industry proposals to increase the national coal power cap to between 1,200 and 1,400 GW by 2035.

The workshop brought together institutional, academic, and local stakeholders to analyze climate risk scenarios for the Manuripi and Madre de Dios basins. Participants identified a high-risk scenario for the Cobija region involving a 3 °C temperature increase and a 30% reduction in precipitation, which could lead to a 70% to 90% drop in Brazil nut production. The proceedings outline proposed adaptation strategies, including environmental education, forest enrichment, and the diversification of non-timber forest products, to build resilience within the reserve's management plans.

The analysis concludes that while Hurricane Harvey was an extremely rare event, global warming increased the intensity of its precipitation by approximately 15% and made such an event about three times more likely. Observational data and climate models indicate a trend of increasing extreme precipitation along the US Gulf Coast, often exceeding the standard Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. The study emphasizes that while the storm's rarity makes it difficult to attribute its existence to climate change, the increased rainfall intensity contributed significantly to the flooding in Houston, which was further exacerbated by urban development and subsidence.

The analysis finds that February 2017 was the second warmest February on record for the contiguous United States, with temperatures 3.1°C above the 1981–2010 normal. By combining historical observations with CMIP5, HadGEM3-A, and Weather@Home model ensembles, the study concludes that the probability of such a warm event has increased more than threefold due to human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. While the 2017 event had a return period of approximately 12 years in the current climate, it would have been a 1-in-160-year event around 1900. Projections suggest that by 2050, temperatures like those seen in February 2017 will be 'completely normal', occurring roughly every three years.

The analysis found that while human-induced climate change slightly increased the probability of the 2016 record-breaking heat in Rajasthan, the effect was not statistically significant. The study suggests that the warming effect of greenhouse gases in India is being partially offset by the cooling effects of aerosols and increased irrigation. Despite the lack of a strong temperature trend, the combination of high heat, pollution, and humidity is increasing the health risks and mortality associated with heat waves.

The document analyzes the trade-offs between Lesotho's water exports via the Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP) and its domestic needs for water, agriculture, and industry. Using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system, it finds that while climate change introduces uncertainty in precipitation, strategic investments in the Polihali Dam and the Lesotho Lowlands Water Supply Scheme (LLWSS) can simultaneously secure water transfers to South Africa and improve domestic water and food security.

The forests of the Rocky Mountains are facing a 'triple assault' of tree-killing insects, wildfires, and heat and drought, all amplified by human-caused global warming. Bark beetle outbreaks killed trees on 46 million acres between 2000 and 2012, while large wildfires have increased in frequency and intensity. Iconic species like whitebark pines, quaking aspens, and piñon pines are in catastrophic decline. Projections suggest that if emissions continue unchecked, average regional temperatures could rise by 10°F by the end of the century, potentially replacing conifer forests with shrublands or grasslands. The report advocates for risk assessment, stakeholder engagement, managing for resilience, increasing agency capacity, addressing community vulnerability, and deep reductions in heat-trapping emissions.

The project uses proxy data—including coral, stalagmites, tree-rings, and coastal lagoon sediments—to analyze past Caribbean hurricane activity and its relationship with sea surface temperatures and climate patterns. Initial findings indicate that higher hurricane activity before AD 1550 and after 1750 correlates with warmer sea surfaces, with peaks occurring during the Medieval period (AD 900-1100) and since 1980. The study also highlights the role of the Intra-Americas Low-Level Jet (IALLJ) in affecting storm strength and notes significant population vulnerability along the U.S. coast.

The document assesses the Chindwin River Basin in Myanmar, highlighting the impacts of climate change, deforestation, and mining on water quality, biodiversity, and livelihoods. It details the transition of local communities from river-based to groundwater-based water use and argues for an integrated, bottom-up approach to water governance through the Chindwin River Basin Organization (RBO).

This report outlines a national strategy for the United States to transition to a clean energy economy to mitigate global warming. It proposes a combination of energy efficiency, renewable energy, and a cap-and-trade program to achieve significant emissions reductions. The analysis emphasizes the necessity of meeting specific targets by 2020 and 2030 to avoid the most severe climate impacts, while highlighting the potential for these transitions to spur economic growth and job creation.

The study investigates a severe drought in southern Madagascar (the Grand Sud region) between July 2019 and June 2021, which contributed to a major food security crisis. Analysis of observational data and climate models indicates that the event was a 1-in-135 year dry event, but its likelihood was not significantly increased by anthropogenic climate change. The findings suggest that natural variability remains the dominant driver of such droughts in this region, aligning with IPCC projections that perceptible changes in drought may only emerge if global mean temperatures exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The report also highlights that the humanitarian impact was severely compounded by extreme poverty, poor infrastructure, and the COVID-19 pandemic.