Out of Step

The report finds that China is driving the growth of the global coal fleet, adding 42.9 GW between January 2018 and June 2019 while the rest of the world's capacity decreased by 8.1 GW. This growth is largely attributed to a provincial permitting surge between 2014 and 2016, which created a pipeline of projects that the central government has struggled to restrict. Despite a recent slowdown in new proposals and permits, China has 147.7 GW of capacity either under construction or likely to be revived. The report concludes that to keep global warming well below 2°C, China would need to reduce its coal capacity to 600 GW or less by 2030, a target that contradicts industry proposals to increase the national coal power cap to between 1,200 and 1,400 GW by 2035.

• Between January 2018 and June 2019, China increased its coal fleet by 42.9 GW, whereas countries outside of China decreased their total coal power capacity by 8.1 GW, meaning China is effectively driving the overall growth of the global coal fleet.
• China has a significant amount of coal capacity in the pipeline, with 121.3 GW under active construction and an additional 26.4 GW under suspension that are likely to be revived, totaling 147.7 GW.
• The current surplus of coal projects resulted from a permitting surge from September 2014 to March 2016 when provincial authorities were given approval power, leading to a pipeline of 245 GW of new projects.
• Central government restrictions imposed in 2017 on 169.5 GW of coal capacity have been largely ineffective; by July 2019, 83.9 GW (49%) of that restricted capacity had advanced in permitting, construction, or commissioning.
• There has been a sharp decline in new coal activity since the 2014-2016 boom, with newly proposed capacity falling by 80% and DRC permits for new construction dropping by 98% between the 2015-16 and 2018-19 periods.
• Industry groups are proposing to raise China's coal power cap from 1,100 GW to between 1,200 and 1,400 GW by 2035, which the report argues is incompatible with the Paris agreement.
• To align with IPCC scenarios for holding warming well below 2°C, China would need to reduce its coal power capacity from 1,027 GW to 600 GW or less by 2030, requiring an average plant retirement age of 17 to 21 years.

APA

Shearer, C., Yu, A., & Nace, T. (2019). Out of Step. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/Out-of-Step-English-final_11.pdf

Chicago

Shearer, Christine, Aiqun Yu, and Ted Nace. Out of Step. Global Energy Monitor, 2019. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/Out-of-Step-English-final_11.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Shearer |first1=Christine |last2=Yu |first2=Aiqun |last3=Nace |first3=Ted |title=Out of Step |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |date=November 2019 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/Out-of-Step-English-final_11.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{shearer2019out, author = {Shearer, Christine and Yu, Aiqun and Nace, Ted}, title = {{Out of Step}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2019}, month = nov, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/Out-of-Step-English-final_11.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }