Out of Step

This report by Global Energy Monitor analyzes the growth of China's coal-fired power fleet between 2018 and 2019, contrasting it with a global trend of coal capacity reduction. It examines the impact of a provincial permitting boom (2014–2016), the subsequent failure of central government restrictions to stop construction, and the incompatibility of China's projected coal capacity with IPCC climate targets for limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.

• Between January 2018 and June 2019, China's coal power fleet grew by 42.9 GW, while the rest of the world's coal power capacity decreased by 8.1 GW, meaning China is effectively driving the overall growth of the global coal fleet.
• China has a significant amount of coal capacity under development, with 121.3 GW under active construction and 26.4 GW under suspension but likely to be revived, totaling 147.7 GW.
• A permitting surge from September 2014 to March 2016, caused by the delegation of authority to provincial leaders, added approximately 245 GW of projects to the pipeline. Central government restrictions imposed in 2017 on 169.5 GW of capacity have been largely ineffective, as 83.9 GW (49%) of that restricted capacity advanced in development or were commissioned by July 2019.
• While construction of existing projects continues, new proposals have slowed significantly since the 2014–2016 boom. Newly proposed capacity fell by 80% (from 42.7 GW in 2015–16 to 8.5 GW in 2018–19) and DRC permits for new construction dropped by 98% (from 126.4 GW to 2.6 GW) over the same period.
• Industry groups are proposing that China increase its coal power capacity cap from 1,100 GW to between 1,200 and 1,400 GW by 2035 to maintain grid stability and meet demand.
• To align with IPCC scenarios for holding global warming well below 2°C, China would need to reduce its coal power capacity from 1,027 GW to 600 GW or less by 2030. This would require an average retirement age of 17 to 21 years for its coal plants.
• If China expands its coal capacity to 1,200–1,400 GW by 2035, its coal power generation alone would exceed the total global limit determined by the IPCC to keep warming well below 2°C, even if all other countries phased out coal entirely.

APA

Shearer, C., Yu, A., & Nace, T. (2019). Out of Step. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/Out-of-Step-English-final_11.pdf

Chicago

Shearer, Christine, Aiqun Yu, and Ted Nace. Out of Step. Global Energy Monitor, 2019. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/Out-of-Step-English-final_11.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Shearer |first1=Christine |last2=Yu |first2=Aiqun |last3=Nace |first3=Ted |title=Out of Step |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |date=November 2019 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/Out-of-Step-English-final_11.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{shearer2019out, author = {Shearer, Christine and Yu, Aiqun and Nace, Ted}, title = {{Out of Step}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2019}, month = nov, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/Out-of-Step-English-final_11.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }