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The 2026 Hormuz crisis, triggered by a US-Israel war with Iran, is projected to increase Türkiye's energy import bill by $14 billion by the end of 2026. This increase is driven by a 50% surge in Brent crude oil prices and a 45% rise in European gas prices. Türkiye's high import dependence—95% for natural gas, 83% for crude oil, and 60% for coal—makes its economy structurally vulnerable to global price shocks. Road transport is the largest contributor to the energy bill, accounting for nearly one-third of the total in 2025. The report suggests that transitioning to electric vehicles and heat pumps could permanently lower import costs, noting that 1 million electric cars could save $900 million annually and a 10% transition to heat pumps in homes could save $1 billion annually.

Europe is facing a significant demographic shift characterized by declining working-age populations and increasing old-age dependency, which is expected to create tighter labour markets and labour shortages by 2050. While this trend may stunt GDP growth and complicate investment, it provides an opportunity for trade unions to increase worker bargaining power and revitalize their membership, particularly by organizing the expanding care sector.

RMI advocates for the reassessment of planned coal-fired power plants, particularly in low-and-middle-income countries, given the falling costs of renewables and storage. The briefing provides a framework for identifying candidate plants for reconsideration based on their conception date, sunk costs, and evolving grid needs, suggesting that solar paired with battery energy storage (BESS) often offers a more competitive levelized cost of energy (LCOE) than new ultra-supercritical coal plants.

The document asserts that climate disinformation in Europe is an industrialised threat that distorts public debate, delays clean energy investment, and weakens crisis response. It highlights a failure in regulatory enforcement across the EU and UK, noting that while instruments like the Digital Services Act exist, they are unevenly applied. The authors advocate for limiting algorithmic amplification of misleading content and increasing media scrutiny to protect the conditions necessary for collective climate action.

The report outlines a framework for federal agencies to optimize the delivery of energy incentives through three core principles: strategic planning, resource management, and communications. It suggests that agencies narrow their priorities, delegate decision-making, and involve industry early in program design to accelerate the commercialization of energy technologies. Specific recommendations include streamlining the application process for grants and loans, tailoring community benefit models to local needs, and providing transparent, phased guidance for tax credits to increase investor certainty.

The report argues that renewable energy infrastructure for mining can serve as 'horizontal linkage' to provide energy access and economic benefits to surrounding communities. It recommends that governments integrate these investments into local content policies and plan for long-term resilience through skills development, inclusive training, and mine closure planning to ensure benefits persist beyond the life of the mine.

The report warns that climate change is increasing the probability of simultaneous crop failures in major global breadbaskets, which could trigger food price spikes, social unrest, and geopolitical instability. Using France, Germany, and India as examples, it projects significant increases in crop failure risks by 2040 and highlights how extreme heat undermines both agricultural yields and the labor and infrastructure necessary for food security. For Europe, these failures could be exploited by Russia through hybrid warfare and disinformation, while destabilizing import-dependent NATO and EU partners. The authors recommend that NATO and the EU integrate food security into resilience frameworks, protect agricultural aid, coordinate trade responses to avoid export bans, and increase investment in climate-smart agricultural R&D.

India is uniquely positioned to produce cost-competitive sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) using a power-and-biomass-to-liquids (PBtL) pathway. By combining low-cost green hydrogen—enabled by plummeting solar and battery costs—with abundant agricultural residue, India can produce SAF that is more cost-effective and has lower carbon intensity than competing technologies like HEFA, ATJ, BtL, and PtL. Analysis indicates that a 2030 PBtL project could produce SAF at costs 40% lower than recent fossil jet fuel prices, with parity potentially reached in the 2030s. Beyond decarbonization, this approach reduces dependence on crude oil imports (currently 90% of supply) and mitigates severe air pollution caused by open-field residue burning, which is linked to 44,000 to 98,000 premature deaths annually. The brief recommends government support through first-of-a-kind demonstration projects near Delhi, Pune, and Mumbai airports, the use of trade policies to access EU and UK markets, and the implementation of incentives based on the social cost of carbon and avoided health costs from air pollution.

The report argues that a just energy transition in Africa requires the concurrent development of non-fossil fuel revenue sources and employment to avoid destabilising public finances. Focusing on Angola, Senegal, and Tanzania, it identifies alternative sectors such as renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, mining of critical minerals, and tourism. It recommends the adoption of Just Transition Investment Plans (JTIPs), the implementation of 'sunset policies' to end new fossil fuel licensing, and the use of fossil revenues as a temporary financing mechanism for green industrialisation. The report specifically advocates for strict conditions on any remaining gas use, including a ban on export-oriented LNG and a requirement to ringfence 50% of revenues for renewable energy.

The report examines how natural infrastructure, such as wetlands and small naturalized dams, can be optimized to improve water quality in the Canadian Prairies. Using data from the De Salaberry project (2019-2023), the authors demonstrate that hydraulic retention time is the primary driver of phosphorus reduction. They argue that standard design practices, which prioritize flood mitigation, often overlook quantifiable water quality benefits. The document recommends integrating dynamic treatment models into planning to target phosphorus hotspots and optimize outlet structures to increase the time water remains stored before release.

The study finds that Canadian municipalities spend millions annually managing single-use plastic (SUP) waste, though specific costs are often undertracked. Plastics comprise approximately 15% of both garbage and recycling streams by weight. The report highlights significant data gaps for items like vaping devices and tampon applicators, which are frequently found in wastewater screenings but rarely in solid waste audits. Environmental analysis shows cigarette butts are the most abundant SUP by count, while bottles and cups dominate by mass. A critical economic finding is the potential risk to Canadian agriculture, where microplastic pollution could lead to annual crop production value losses between CAD 0.5 and 2.16 billion. To address these issues, the authors developed a Plastic Waste Cost Calculator for local authorities and recommend transitioning to volumetric waste measurements and establishing a universal flushability standard for wipes.

The study evaluates the financial and environmental burden of eight common single-use plastics in Canada. It finds a significant lack of consistent data across municipalities, with costs often underestimated because they are based on weight rather than the high volume these plastics occupy. The report highlights that cigarette butts are the most frequent litter item, while plastic bottles and cups generate substantial management costs. It also estimates that microplastic pollution could risk between 0.5 and 2.16 billion CAD annually in Canadian agricultural production for wheat and corn. To address these gaps, the authors developed a 'Plastic Waste Cost Calculator' tool for local authorities and recommend shifting toward volumetric waste measurement and standardized data collection.

Bosnia and Herzegovina faces a significant investment gap of 3.5 billion euros to meet EU Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive (UWWTD) requirements, with only 20 operational treatment plants currently in place. The report suggests that BiH can leverage Sweden's experience in sectoral knowledge sharing, inter-municipal cooperation, and the use of both centralized and decentralized systems to improve sustainability. Key recommendations include adopting the 2024 Master Plan for Agglomerations, developing entity-level sludge management plans, and bypassing traditional linear models in favor of circular resource recovery for water, nutrients, and energy.

Bosnia and Herzegovina faces a significant investment gap of EUR 3.5 billion to meet EU wastewater standards, with only 20 operating treatment plants. The report compares the fragmented institutional landscape of Bosnia and Herzegovina with Sweden's more integrated approach, highlighting the role of trade organizations like Svenskt Vatten and inter-municipal collaborations like NSVA. It suggests that Bosnia and Herzegovina can 'leapfrog' traditional centralized systems by adopting circular resource recovery principles for water, nutrients, and energy, and by tailoring solutions to the specific scale of urban and rural agglomerations.

The report presents a business case for transitioning to an electrified economy, asserting that electricity is becoming the foundation for global economic growth. It highlights that electrification is the most efficient route to decarbonization, capable of displacing approximately 60% of global fossil fuel use. The document outlines the benefits of electrification in terms of cost predictability, energy security, and public health, while identifying significant barriers such as distorted market incentives and a global skills gap. It proposes ten policy principles for governments to unlock business investment and introduces the 'Electric Advantage' program to coordinate business leadership in modernizing policy and scaling deployment.

The report concludes that Egypt is unlikely to meet its Vision 2030 growth targets on its current path, with projected average growth of 4.7% by 2043 compared to a 12% target. It identifies structural challenges including fiscal instability, high inflation, and a lack of job creation. To address these, the author recommends targeted interventions in health, education, agriculture, manufacturing, and infrastructure, specifically highlighting the completion of the El Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant to add 4.8GW of capacity and the use of diaspora bonds to attract capital.

The report finds that Mozambique's 'Current Path' is not viable, as the country is likely to miss most of its National Development Strategy (2023-2043) targets and see an increase in extreme poverty by 2043 despite gas megaproject revenues. To achieve inclusive growth, the authors recommend an integrated development push focusing on governance transparency, agricultural productivity, economic diversification, and human capital. Specific climate-related recommendations include investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, such as solar-powered irrigation, and adopting ecosystem-based approaches like wetland restoration to protect rural communities from floods and land degradation.

The report evaluates eight sectoral scenarios for Côte d'Ivoire, highlighting that a holistic development strategy combining governance improvements, industrialization, and regional trade integration could lead to a 92% GDP increase and a significant reduction in extreme poverty by 2043.

The report analyzes Malawi's development futures, noting that while a 'Combined scenario' shows GDP per capita 35% higher than the 'Current Path' by 2043, this is insufficient to reach lower-middle-income status by 2030. It highlights persistent gaps in urbanization, industrialization, and healthcare, while emphasizing the critical impact of climate variability on rain-fed agriculture. Key recommendations include expanding Special Economic Zones, adopting climate-smart agriculture, and implementing nature-based solutions for flood prevention.

The report identifies Kenya as a pivotal East African economic powerhouse with the potential for a 685% GDP increase by 2043 under a Combined scenario. It argues that implementing eight sectoral interventions could raise GDP per capita to US$10,950 and reduce extreme poverty from 64.6% in 2019 to 6.4% by 2043. To ensure sustainable and equitable growth, the document recommends strengthening anti-corruption efforts, expanding education and healthcare, investing in modern irrigation, and accelerating the transition to renewable energy through geothermal, solar, and wind projects.