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The research paper analyzes how the AKP government transitioned Turkey's role in Syria from a projected 'humanitarian superpower' to a state focused on national security. It examines the tension between 'humanitarian diplomacy'—which emphasizes Islamic identity and solidarity—and the 'securitisation' of Kurdish autonomy in Northern Syria. The author argues that Turkey's foreign policy is deeply linked to its domestic political shift toward authoritarianism and the need to appease nationalist allies, ultimately prioritizing state security over human security.

The research argues that terrorism creates a 'window of opportunity' for military actors to increase their political influence without seizing full state control. It identifies two primary mechanisms: a 'pulling' effect, where civilian authorities demand military expertise to combat threats, and a 'pushing' effect, where the military exploits informational advantages to advance its own interests. Using global panel data from 1984 to 2004, the authors find that both actual domestic terror attacks and the perceived probability of aggregate terrorism are positively associated with higher levels of military involvement in politics.

The research examines 'pirogue migration' from West Africa to the Canary Islands, arguing that migrants are not irrational or suicidal but make decisions based on a specific socioeconomic and moral context. It identifies that the inability to achieve social adulthood—defined by financial independence and the ability to marry—creates a 'social moratorium' that makes the risks of the journey acceptable. The study finds that migrants actively filter risk information, often discrediting official awareness campaigns as biased. Furthermore, notions of masculinity, honor, and Sufi Islamic beliefs frame the journey as a courageous sacrifice or a matter of divine destiny, effectively neutralizing the fear of death.

The research argues that external states often intervene in civil wars to pursue objectives separate from those of internal combatants, which makes conflicts harder to resolve. Using Cox regressions on data from 1945 to 2004, the author finds that 'independent interventions' significantly increase war duration compared to 'non-independent' interventions. This is attributed to the introduction of additional demands that shrink the bargaining range, the difficulty of updating beliefs in multi-party conflicts, and the lower costs of fighting for external states compared to domestic actors.

The report argues that civil war is 'development in reverse,' creating a 'conflict trap' where poverty and institutional failure increase the risk of war, and war further degrades development. It identifies three rings of adverse effects: internal civilian suffering, regional spillovers (such as arms races and disease), and global costs (including drug trafficking and terrorism). The authors find that civil war is increasingly concentrated in 'marginalized' low-income countries and those in the conflict trap. To combat this, the report proposes a policy package including improved aid timing, transparent natural resource governance, and coordinated military-development sequencing in postconflict decades.

The research finds that while Libyan arms significantly enhanced the military capacity of insurgents in Mali and the Sinai, the overall proliferation was less destabilizing and widespread than initially feared, abating after 2013 due to international interventions and increased domestic demand within Libya.

The document analyzes the strategic importance of Myanmar's offshore natural gas reserves, particularly the Shwe field, in the context of energy security for China, India, and Thailand. It details how the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) utilizes these resources to secure foreign investment and military aid, thereby undermining Western sanctions and delaying democratic reforms. The text highlights a specific rivalry between China and India over pipeline routes, noting China's success in securing a pipeline to Kunming and its broader strategic goal of bypassing the Strait of Malacca. Additionally, it examines the role of other regional actors and the regime's efforts to diversify its dependencies through cooperation with Russia and South Korea.

The authors argue that while mainstream IR marginalizes the Global South through 'Othering' (exclusion based on difference), some Global South IR scholarship—specifically from China—employs 'Selving' (inclusion based on imagined sameness). By analyzing 234 articles from China-based journals between 2010 and 2020, the study finds that Chinese IR often represents Africa as a partner in a 'community with a shared future,' yet this narrative frequently positions China's own development experience as the leading model for African states. This process of 'Selving' creates a new hierarchy where African perspectives are silenced or subsumed under Chinese experiences, effectively replacing Western epistemic hegemony with a China-centric one rather than achieving true pluralization of the discipline.

The paper establishes a framework for integrating ethics into the impact assessment of border control technologies, distinguishing ethics from legal compliance. It identifies recurring ethical arguments—such as technological determinism and function creep—and provides a list of logical fallacies to help assessors challenge weak reasoning in public and institutional discourses. The text also categorizes normative ethical positions (deontological, consequentialist, and distributive justice) and suggests multidisciplinary profiles for those performing these assessments.

The author critiques existing international relations literature for viewing China primarily as an object of Western socialisation, arguing instead that China is an active agent of socialisation. Using the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) as a case study, the paper demonstrates how China employs a 'colony narrative' and the framework of South-South cooperation to frame itself as a fellow developing country resisting Western hegemony. This discourse legitimises the 'security-development nexus'—the idea that economic development is the foundation of security—allowing Beijing to shift from a policy of non-interference to active engagement in African peace and security operations while maintaining a consistent diplomatic narrative.

The study finds that climate-related natural disasters in India have a conditional and generally weak relationship with violent conflict. While disasters can increase the risk of politically motivated violence in areas with low literacy (low development), they are associated with an increased risk of riots in areas with higher literacy. However, the author concludes that these statistical relations are not substantively large enough to suggest that post-disaster violence is a major problem in India, as the direct damages from disasters likely dwarf the damages from ensuing unrest.

The research evaluates three dimensions of state capacity—coercion (revenue extraction), co-optation (government spending), and cooperation (trust in institutions)—to determine their impact on the onset of civil war. Using a global dataset, the authors find that high government spending and trustworthy institutions (proxied by contract-intensive money) are significant predictors of civil peace, whereas coercive capacity (relative political capacity) has little predictive power when controlling for other factors. The findings suggest that civil peace is co-produced through social cooperation and the provision of public goods rather than through state repression.

The research paper examines the 'triangular drama' between Israel, Transjordan, and the UN during the 1949 armistice negotiations. It argues that while official talks occurred at Rhodes under UN Acting Mediator Ralph Bunche, the substantive agreements were reached through secret bilateral channels in Jerusalem and Shuneh. Israel exploited a significant power asymmetry, using military 'facts on the ground' (such as Operation Uvda) and direct blackmail regarding Iraqi troop withdrawals to coerce Transjordan into conceding strategic territory. The author contends that Ralph Bunche, acting as a 'weak mediator' without the support of Great Powers, allowed these secret talks to proceed to expedite the mission, ultimately granting international legitimacy to a treaty negotiated through coercion. The document concludes that the lack of a strong third party to counterbalance Israel's power established a precedent of unsustainable peace in the region.

The study finds that high urban population growth is significantly associated with increased social unrest, but only in peri-urban areas (the urban outskirts). In contrast, population growth in primary urban cores is negatively associated with unrest. The researchers found no evidence that this relationship is driven by environmental push factors such as nearby droughts; in fact, droughts hitting urban areas directly were found to be negatively associated with unrest.

The report finds that 2025 was the third most violent year since 1989, with 245,000 battle-related deaths. It highlights a record high of 65 state-based conflicts and a concerning doubling of international conflicts to eight in 2025. While non-state conflicts decreased slightly, one-sided violence surged to 76,500 fatalities, primarily driven by massacres in Sudan.

The document argues that ethno-nationalist violence is driven by structural relations between ethnic groups and governments rather than simple demographic diversity. Using the Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) and GeoEPR datasets, the research demonstrates that groups excluded from executive power, particularly those who recently lost power, face a significantly higher risk of civil war. Additionally, horizontal inequality—where a group is either significantly poorer or wealthier than the national average—increases the probability of conflict. The text suggests power-sharing or partition as potential solutions to these entrenched conflicts.

The Afghan Peace and Reintegration Program (APRP), launched in late 2010, has achieved limited results due to rushed implementation, poor coordination, and the absence of a coherent political strategy. While designed to entice low-level insurgents with security and jobs, the program has struggled with slow fund disbursement, inadequate vetting, and a failure to provide genuine security for reintegrees. A significant portion of those reintegrated are from northern and western provinces and may not be genuine insurgents. Furthermore, the tendency to enroll reintegrees in the Afghan Local Police (ALP) may exacerbate local rivalries rather than foster peace. The author argues that reintegration cannot succeed as a standalone military tool and must be embedded in a broader reconciliation process that addresses high-level leadership and systemic grievances.

The document describes the DIADATA dataset, which lists diamond occurrences worldwide, including geographic coordinates, geological forms, and dates of discovery and production. It details the data collection process from academic, governmental, and industry sources, and explains the coding structure for variables such as geological form (primary, secondary, or marine) and production status. Additionally, it describes a 'compact version' of the dataset where sites within 50 km are aggregated into multipoints to reduce missing temporal data. The document includes detailed country profiles for 53 countries, outlining their diamond discovery and production histories.

The authors analyze how violence spreads in space and time during civil wars, distinguishing between relocation diffusion (shifting violence) and escalation diffusion (expanding violence). Using a modified joint count statistic and Monte Carlo simulations on ACLED event data from Bosnia, Kosovo, Burundi, and Rwanda, the study finds that violence typically expands in scope, supporting the theory that irregular warfare lacks demarcated front lines.

The report documents the multi-wave displacement of Turkish Cypriots, particularly during 1958, 1963-64, and 1974, and examines the long-term psychological and social impacts. It highlights a generational shift in the perception of lost homes and a widespread anxiety regarding 'uncertainty' following the 2004 failure of the Annan Plan. Findings suggest a strong resistance to further displacement, with many interviewees favoring a loose bizonal federation where communities remain in their current locations.