Breaking the Conflict Trap

The report argues that civil war is 'development in reverse,' creating a 'conflict trap' where poverty and institutional failure increase the risk of war, and war further degrades development. It identifies three rings of adverse effects: internal civilian suffering, regional spillovers (such as arms races and disease), and global costs (including drug trafficking and terrorism). The authors find that civil war is increasingly concentrated in 'marginalized' low-income countries and those in the conflict trap. To combat this, the report proposes a policy package including improved aid timing, transparent natural resource governance, and coordinated military-development sequencing in postconflict decades.

• Civil war causes severe internal economic damage, typically reducing per capita income by around 15 percent after a seven-year conflict, which leads to an approximately 30 percent increase in absolute poverty.
• The costs of civil war extend beyond the combatants in three ripples: internal displacement and mortality of noncombatants, regional economic decline and disease in neighboring countries, and global issues like hard drug production and international terrorism.
• Civil wars have significant regional health spillovers, specifically regarding malaria; for every 1,000 refugees from tropical countries with civil war, asylum countries see approximately 1,406 new cases of malaria.
• The global production of hard drugs is heavily concentrated in conflict zones, with 95 percent of global opium production occurring in countries with civil wars.
• Economic characteristics are stronger predictors of civil war than ethnic or religious hatreds; countries with low, stagnant, and unequally distributed incomes that depend on primary commodity exports face the highest risks.
• Ethnic diversity generally reduces the risk of civil war, but 'ethnic dominance'—where one group makes up 45 to 90 percent of the population—increases the risk of rebellion by approximately 50 percent.
• Natural resource wealth, particularly oil, increases the risk of secessionist rebellions as local populations may seek to capture the rents of the resource.
• Countries often fall into a 'conflict trap' where a previous war significantly increases the risk of future conflict; a country that has had a war faces a 44 percent risk of returning to conflict within five years.
• The global incidence of civil war is diverging: 'successful developers' (middle-income or fast-growing low-income countries) are seeing risks decline, while 'marginalized' low-income countries face rising risks due to economic decline.
• High military spending in postconflict situations is counterproductive and increases the risk of a return to war, potentially signaling a government's lack of commitment to peace.
• International aid is most effective at raising growth in postconflict countries during the middle four to five years of the first postconflict decade, yet current aid patterns typically peak early and taper off too quickly.
• The Kimberley process is cited as a successful example of international collective action to reduce rebel financing by regulating the rough diamond trade.
• A comprehensive policy package—including faster growth for marginalized countries, shortening conflict duration, and halving postconflict relapse risks—could reduce the global incidence of civil war by more than half.

APA

Collier, P., Elliott, V. L., Hegre, H., Hoeffler, A., Reynal-Querol, M., & Sambanis, N. (n.d.). Breaking the Conflict Trap. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/2cb455f1-97a5-4e8f-a02d-4710a052c40b/Breaking the Conflict Trap.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Collier, Paul, V. L. Elliott, Håvard Hegre, Anke Hoeffler, Marta Reynal-Querol, and Nicholas Sambanis. Breaking the Conflict Trap. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/2cb455f1-97a5-4e8f-a02d-4710a052c40b/Breaking the Conflict Trap.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{collierndbreaking, author = {Collier, Paul and Elliott, V. L. and Hegre, Håvard and Hoeffler, Anke and Reynal-Querol, Marta and Sambanis, Nicholas}, title = {{Breaking the Conflict Trap}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/2cb455f1-97a5-4e8f-a02d-4710a052c40b/Breaking the Conflict Trap.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }