Beyond Coups: Terrorism and Military Involvement in Politics

The research argues that terrorism creates a 'window of opportunity' for military actors to increase their political influence without seizing full state control. It identifies two primary mechanisms: a 'pulling' effect, where civilian authorities demand military expertise to combat threats, and a 'pushing' effect, where the military exploits informational advantages to advance its own interests. Using global panel data from 1984 to 2004, the authors find that both actual domestic terror attacks and the perceived probability of aggregate terrorism are positively associated with higher levels of military involvement in politics.

• Terrorist violence and the threat of attacks facilitate military involvement in politics (MIP) by creating a window of opportunity for armed forces to influence policy without taking full control of state institutions.
• The 'pulling' mechanism occurs when government authorities, facing security threats, demand military expertise and skills to strengthen national security, thereby granting the military greater political autonomy.
• The 'pushing' mechanism involves military actors exploiting their informational advantage and intelligence capacity over civilian leaders to shape government decisions and promote their own organizational interests.
• Panel data analysis (1984-2004) indicates that a 10% increase in the total number of terrorist attacks corresponds to a 0.3% increase in the degree of military involvement in politics.
• The perceived probability of aggregate terrorism is positively and significantly related to MIP, with a 10% increase in this probability leading to a 0.5% increase in military involvement.
• In France between 1995 and 1998, the military used the 'pushing' mechanism by highlighting terrorist threats to argue against budgetary cuts and the end of conscription.
• France's 'Operation Sentinel' (2015-2016) illustrates the 'pulling' mechanism, where President Hollande mobilized over 13,000 troops domestically, resulting in increased tactical autonomy and more frequent access to the president for high-level officers.
• In Algeria (1989-1992), the military employed the 'pushing' mechanism by overemphasizing terrorist attacks to justify its interference in politics and linking its political enemies, specifically the Front Islamique du Salut (FIS), to terrorist threats.
• The study finds that military involvement in politics is negatively associated with a country's level of democracy and the length of a political regime, while it is positively associated with corruption and the existence of military regimes.

APA

Bove, V., Rivera, M., & Ruffa, C. (n.d.). Beyond Coups: Terrorism and Military Involvement in Politics. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/21b97756-0050-48c9-ae52-52d7bce3c66d/Beyond Coups.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Bove, Vincenzo, Mauricio Rivera, and Chiara Ruffa. Beyond Coups: Terrorism and Military Involvement in Politics. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/21b97756-0050-48c9-ae52-52d7bce3c66d/Beyond Coups.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bove |first1=Vincenzo |last2=Rivera |first2=Mauricio |last3=Ruffa |first3=Chiara |title=Beyond Coups: Terrorism and Military Involvement in Politics |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/21b97756-0050-48c9-ae52-52d7bce3c66d/Beyond Coups.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bovendbeyond, author = {Bove, Vincenzo and Rivera, Mauricio and Ruffa, Chiara}, title = {{Beyond Coups: Terrorism and Military Involvement in Politics}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/21b97756-0050-48c9-ae52-52d7bce3c66d/Beyond Coups.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }