Ethno-nationalist exclusion and civil war

The document argues that ethno-nationalist violence is driven by structural relations between ethnic groups and governments rather than simple demographic diversity. Using the Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) and GeoEPR datasets, the research demonstrates that groups excluded from executive power, particularly those who recently lost power, face a significantly higher risk of civil war. Additionally, horizontal inequality—where a group is either significantly poorer or wealthier than the national average—increases the probability of conflict. The text suggests power-sharing or partition as potential solutions to these entrenched conflicts.

• Ethno-nationalist grievances are not simple individualist phenomena measurable by diversity or polarization; instead, they emerge from the specific relations between ethnic groups and their governments.
• Political exclusion from executive power significantly increases the risk of civil war. Groups excluded from power have an annual conflict probability of 0.71 percent, compared to 0.32 percent for included groups. Those who have experienced a recent loss of power are nearly 18 times more likely to experience civil war, with a conflict probability of 5.7 percent.
• Horizontal inequality, defined as the ratio between a group's per capita income and the national average, drives conflict. Groups that are either significantly poorer or wealthier than the country average are at a higher risk of involvement in civil wars.
• While grievances are a primary driver, the actual outbreak of violent ethno-nationalist challenges depends on additional factors including terrain, geopolitics, political institutions, organizational resources, and transborder intervention.
• Power-sharing is identified as the most apparent solution for ethno-nationalist conflicts, though it is often imperfect and may need to be replaced by partition in highly entrenched cases.

APA

Cederman, L.-E. (n.d.). Ethno-nationalist exclusion and civil war. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/7b6ff35f-c56d-42d8-a81d-daee7e95bf8c/Debunking Myths about Civil Wars Facts about Ethno-Nationalist Conflict.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Cederman, Lars-Erik. Ethno-nationalist exclusion and civil war. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/7b6ff35f-c56d-42d8-a81d-daee7e95bf8c/Debunking Myths about Civil Wars Facts about Ethno-Nationalist Conflict.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cederman |first1=Lars-Erik |title=Ethno-nationalist exclusion and civil war |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/7b6ff35f-c56d-42d8-a81d-daee7e95bf8c/Debunking Myths about Civil Wars Facts about Ethno-Nationalist Conflict.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cedermanndethnonationalist, author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik}, title = {{Ethno-nationalist exclusion and civil war}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/7b6ff35f-c56d-42d8-a81d-daee7e95bf8c/Debunking Myths about Civil Wars Facts about Ethno-Nationalist Conflict.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }