Burma in the Balance: The Geopolitics of Gas

The document analyzes the strategic importance of Myanmar's offshore natural gas reserves, particularly the Shwe field, in the context of energy security for China, India, and Thailand. It details how the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) utilizes these resources to secure foreign investment and military aid, thereby undermining Western sanctions and delaying democratic reforms. The text highlights a specific rivalry between China and India over pipeline routes, noting China's success in securing a pipeline to Kunming and its broader strategic goal of bypassing the Strait of Malacca. Additionally, it examines the role of other regional actors and the regime's efforts to diversify its dependencies through cooperation with Russia and South Korea.

• The discovery of offshore natural gas provides the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) with significant political leverage, enabling the military regime to withstand international pressure for political reforms.
• China has successfully outmaneuvered India in securing a natural gas pipeline from the Shwe field to Kunming, after the Burmese regime rejected India's pipeline plans and a South Korean LNG proposal.
• China views Myanmar as a critical strategic asset to enhance its energy security by creating an overland oil and gas supply route that bypasses the Strait of Malacca, a waterway where China fears a potential US-led embargo.
• India perceives China's military and infrastructure presence in Myanmar—specifically the naval base on Great Coco Island—as part of a 'maritime encirclement of India' combined with Chinese facilities at Gwadar Port.
• Western economic sanctions imposed by the US and EU have had a negligible impact on the Burmese economy because the regime has expanded economic and military ties with China, Thailand, India, and Russia.
• The Burmese regime seeks to reduce its strategic dependence on China by securing military hardware and investment from Russia, South Korea, and India.
• Myanmar's natural gas sector is a primary revenue driver; in 2005, gas exports were worth over US$1 billion, and combined foreign direct investment in oil and gas reached US$2.94 billion by January 2007.

APA

Kolås, Å. (n.d.). Burma in the Balance: The Geopolitics of Gas. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/a7e8ac11-b92a-484e-ba7f-1496cdfceb91/Burma in the Balance The Geopolitics of Gas.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Kolås, Åshild. Burma in the Balance: The Geopolitics of Gas. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/a7e8ac11-b92a-484e-ba7f-1496cdfceb91/Burma in the Balance The Geopolitics of Gas.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kolås |first1=Åshild |title=Burma in the Balance: The Geopolitics of Gas |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/a7e8ac11-b92a-484e-ba7f-1496cdfceb91/Burma in the Balance The Geopolitics of Gas.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kolsndburma, author = {Kolås, Åshild}, title = {{Burma in the Balance: The Geopolitics of Gas}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/a7e8ac11-b92a-484e-ba7f-1496cdfceb91/Burma in the Balance The Geopolitics of Gas.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }