Diffusion Patterns of Violence in Civil Wars

The authors analyze how violence spreads in space and time during civil wars, distinguishing between relocation diffusion (shifting violence) and escalation diffusion (expanding violence). Using a modified joint count statistic and Monte Carlo simulations on ACLED event data from Bosnia, Kosovo, Burundi, and Rwanda, the study finds that violence typically expands in scope, supporting the theory that irregular warfare lacks demarcated front lines.

• The authors distinguish between two primary types of conflict diffusion: relocation diffusion, which is a "shift in the location of violence" typical of conventional maneuver warfare with clear front lines, and escalation diffusion, which refers to the "spatial expansion of the conflict site" typical of mobile guerrilla war.
• The study argues that civil wars should primarily exhibit escalation diffusion because insurgents often establish small bases and expand them, and combatants frequently engage in violence within their own zones of control to extract resources or due to the fragmentation of opposing forces.
• To detect these patterns, the researchers developed a spatial-temporal joint count statistic that observes pairs of neighboring spatial cells over two subsequent time steps, testing observed transitions against a null model created via Monte Carlo simulation.
• Analysis of the Bosnian War (April 1992 to October 1995) revealed a predominance of escalation diffusion, which the authors attribute to the use of irregular units and militias pursuing ethno-territorial goals rather than following clear front lines.
• In the Kosovo conflict (March 1998 to October 1999), the results showed a time-invariant pattern of escalation diffusion occurring at small spatial scales (3 km to 7 km), consistent with the KLA's use of guerrilla tactics.
• The civil war in Burundi (November 1993 to end of 2003) exhibited both escalation and relocation diffusion; the presence of relocation dynamics is attributed to mobile warfare and movements across the border into the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
• Analysis of the Rwandan civil war after 1994 showed a significant number of escalation diffusion instances at spatial scales between 3 km and 8 km, with an almost complete absence of relocation diffusion.
• The overall results across the four cases support the conclusion that violence in civil wars tends to expand in scope once it has occurred at a particular location, fitting a model of irregular warfare without demarcated areas of control.

APA

Schutte, S., & Weidmann, N. B. (n.d.). Diffusion Patterns of Violence in Civil Wars. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/001c5f30-1d0c-4456-867a-52998eb64602/Diffusion Patterns of Violence in Civil Wars.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Schutte, Sebastian, and Nils B. Weidmann. Diffusion Patterns of Violence in Civil Wars. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/001c5f30-1d0c-4456-867a-52998eb64602/Diffusion Patterns of Violence in Civil Wars.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Schutte |first1=Sebastian |last2=Weidmann |first2=Nils B. |title=Diffusion Patterns of Violence in Civil Wars |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/001c5f30-1d0c-4456-867a-52998eb64602/Diffusion Patterns of Violence in Civil Wars.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{schuttenddiffusion, author = {Schutte, Sebastian and Weidmann, Nils B.}, title = {{Diffusion Patterns of Violence in Civil Wars}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/001c5f30-1d0c-4456-867a-52998eb64602/Diffusion Patterns of Violence in Civil Wars.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }