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Climate change supercharged late typhoon season in the Philippines highlighting the need for resilience to consecutive events
A study by scientists from the Philippines, UK, and Netherlands found that human-induced climate change, primarily from burning fossil fuels, increased the likelihood of the potential intensity observed during the 2024 late typhoon season in the Philippines by a factor of 1.7. The analysis focused on the sequence of six storms hitting northern Luzon, including Super Typhoon Man-Yi, and found that the probability of at least three major typhoons making landfall in a single year has increased by 25% in the current 1.3°C warmed climate compared to a world without fossil fuel combustion.
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Document type: Research paper
365 Days on a Warming Planet
Climate Central's global analysis using the Climate Shift Index (CSI) found that 96% of the world's population—7.6 billion people—experienced daily temperatures made warmer by human-caused climate change between October 2021 and September 2022. The study identifies the strongest influences in regions near the equator and on small islands, with Lagos, Mexico City, and Singapore emerging as the highest hotspots of human exposure when accounting for urban population. The analysis also pinpointed peak continental CSI days, noting that these do not always coincide with major heat waves.
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Document type: Report
Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heatwave on the Pacific Coast of the US and Canada June 2021
The report concludes that the June 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave was virtually impossible without human-caused climate change, estimating it as a 1-in-1000 year event in the current climate. The analysis indicates the event was approximately 2°C hotter than it would have been in a pre-industrial climate and would have been at least 150 times rarer without anthropogenic warming. Future projections suggest that in a world with 2°C of global warming, such an event would occur every 5 to 10 years and be another degree hotter. Meteorological drivers included an 'omega-block' high-pressure system and dry antecedent soil conditions, while natural variability modes like ENSO and PDO played little to no role.
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Document type: Research paper
Public Opinion on Climate Change, 2024 Alabama
The 2024 data for Alabama indicates that while a majority of residents (62%) believe global warming is occurring, there is a split in perception regarding its cause, with 51% attributing it to human activities. Support for clean energy transitions and renewable energy research is notable, with 57% supporting a transition to 100% clean energy by 2050 and 72% supporting renewable energy research. Risk perceptions are significant, as 54% of residents are worried about global warming and 61% believe it will harm future generations and animal species.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Issue-specific policy-positions and voting in the Council
The research evaluates the relationship between preference-based positions and voting in the Council of the European Union by combining positional data from expert interviews with official voting records. The authors find that governments generally vote in line with their issue-specific positions, supporting the view that they act as rational, utility-maximizing agents. This relationship is more pronounced when the analysis accounts for the salience of issues and employs Bayesian imputation to handle missing data, rather than using standard mean-replacement or list-wise deletion. The study suggests that the perceived 'culture of consensus' in the Council may be a result of selection bias, as only adopted legislation is recorded in the official minutes.
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Document type: Research paper
Diffusion Patterns of Violence in Civil Wars
The authors analyze how violence spreads in space and time during civil wars, distinguishing between relocation diffusion (shifting violence) and escalation diffusion (expanding violence). Using a modified joint count statistic and Monte Carlo simulations on ACLED event data from Bosnia, Kosovo, Burundi, and Rwanda, the study finds that violence typically expands in scope, supporting the theory that irregular warfare lacks demarcated front lines.
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Document type: Research paper