Climate change supercharged late typhoon season in the Philippines highlighting the need for resilience to consecutive events

A study by scientists from the Philippines, UK, and Netherlands found that human-induced climate change, primarily from burning fossil fuels, increased the likelihood of the potential intensity observed during the 2024 late typhoon season in the Philippines by a factor of 1.7. The analysis focused on the sequence of six storms hitting northern Luzon, including Super Typhoon Man-Yi, and found that the probability of at least three major typhoons making landfall in a single year has increased by 25% in the current 1.3°C warmed climate compared to a world without fossil fuel combustion.

• Between late October and November 2024, the Philippines experienced an unprecedented sequence of six typhoons, including Super Typhoon Man-Yi, which had maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h. This period saw a record simultaneous occurrence of four named storms in the Pacific basin since 1951.
• The series of storms caused significant human and economic distress, with early economic loss estimates reaching nearly half a billion USD. Tropical Cyclones Trami and Kong-Rey alone resulted in over 160 deaths, displaced more than 600,000 people, and affected over 9 million individuals.
• Human-induced climate change, driven by fossil fuel combustion, has increased the potential intensity of typhoons. The observed potential intensity in 2024 was made approximately 1.7 times more likely, with an intensity increase of about 2 m/s (7.2 km/h). These figures are considered conservative as climate models tend to underestimate observed changes.
• The probability of at least three major typhoons (category 3 or above) making landfall in the Philippines in a single year has increased by 25% due to the current 1.3°C global warming, making such an event expected once every 15 years. In a 2°C warmer climate, this frequency is expected to increase to once every 12 years.
• Despite having low household poverty rates, cities on Luzon Island remain highly vulnerable to flooding due to deforestation, river silting, and urban sprawl. The frequency of consecutive extreme events hinders population recovery and necessitates increased resilience.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2024). Climate change supercharged late typhoon season in the Philippines highlighting the need for resilience to consecutive events. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-supercharged-late-typhoon-season-in-the-philippines-highlighting-the-need-for-resilience-to-consecutive-events/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Climate change supercharged late typhoon season in the Philippines highlighting the need for resilience to consecutive events. 2024. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-supercharged-late-typhoon-season-in-the-philippines-highlighting-the-need-for-resilience-to-consecutive-events/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Climate change supercharged late typhoon season in the Philippines highlighting the need for resilience to consecutive events |date=12 December 2024 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-supercharged-late-typhoon-season-in-the-philippines-highlighting-the-need-for-resilience-to-consecutive-events/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2024climate, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Climate change supercharged late typhoon season in the Philippines highlighting the need for resilience to consecutive events}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2024}, month = dec, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-supercharged-late-typhoon-season-in-the-philippines-highlighting-the-need-for-resilience-to-consecutive-events/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }