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President João Lourenço has made progress in opening political space and fighting corruption since taking office in 2017, but these gains are offset by a severe economic crisis and the politicisation of the military. While the anti-corruption drive has targeted the former Dos Santos elite, it is accused of lacking transparency and being used for political punishment. Angola faces a deepening recession, with oil production declining and public debt reaching 90% of GDP, leading to austerity measures that increase social tension and poverty. The report highlights risks including potential social convulsion in urban centres, low morale in the armed forces, and ongoing factionalism within the ruling MPLA party.

The report analyzes Angola's vulnerability to oil market volatility and its low human development outcomes. It argues that while GDP is projected to grow, absolute poverty will increase due to rapid population growth unless the government prioritizes human development. The authors evaluate five sectoral scenarios, concluding that investing in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure provides the most significant economic and health benefits, while prioritizing education and reproductive healthcare for women is the fastest way to boost incomes and reduce maternal mortality.

The report finds that South Africa is on a pathway of economic divergence from its middle-income peers due to poor human capital, lack of investment, and an electricity crisis. It proposes the 'Thuma Mina' scenario, which suggests that targeted structural interventions in five key sectors could increase average incomes by 60% by 2044 compared to a 24% increase on the current path. Key recommendations include solving the electricity crisis, improving the quality of health and education, and revitalising manufacturing through increased foreign and domestic investment.

The document assesses the feasibility of dialogue between governments and violent extremist groups in the Lake Chad Basin based on a survey of 31 civil society organization representatives. While many respondents support exploring dialogue due to the failure of purely militarized responses, significant barriers exist, including deep mistrust, unclear extremist motivations, and ideological conflicts regarding the implementation of Sharia law. The brief recommends that governments conduct further research into actor motivations and initiate nationwide discussions to secure community buy-in.

The document argues that while Africa has seen improvements in health indicators, it is falling further behind the rest of the world in average income and economic productivity. It identifies a 'unproductive structure' of economies dominated by low-end services and a slow demographic transition as primary barriers. To ignite a 'growth revolution' by 2040, the author advocates for a 'bottom-up' approach prioritizing basic infrastructure, a reduction in birth rates to achieve a demographic dividend, and the revitalization of the manufacturing sector to support agriculture and high-value services.

The document argues that South Africa's influence in global peacebuilding has waned since the late 2000s due to a lack of strategic coordination, political will, and effective financial mechanisms. It highlights the failure of the African Renaissance and International Cooperation Fund (ARF) to prioritise conflict resolution and the long-delayed establishment of the South African Development Partnership Agency (SADPA). The author recommends that the government professionalise its foreign service, expedite the Partnership for Development Bill, and align peacebuilding efforts with trade and investment priorities to reclaim its international standing.

The document outlines a framework for evidence-led violence prevention, emphasizing that successful multisectoral collaboration requires skilled facilitation, deep contextual understanding, and the cultivation of trust. It argues against 'plug-and-play' programs, suggesting instead that interventions must be tailored to specific community needs—such as addressing gang violence in urban areas or gender inequalities in rural settings. The brief highlights that while diverse stakeholder groups (including government, researchers, and community members) may face more friction, they produce more creative and informed outcomes.

The document analyses Zimbabwe's history of currency instability, from the failure of the US dollar peg and subsequent hyperinflation to the period of full dollarisation (200919) and the 2019 reintroduction of the Zimbabwean dollar. It argues that currency choice is secondary to macroeconomic fundamentals, noting that budget deficits and money creation have consistently undermined stability. The author suggests that if the new Zimbabwean dollar cannot be stabilised, the country should consider adopting the South African rand and joining the Common Monetary Area (CMA) to improve trade integration and competitiveness.

The document argues that while COVID-19 initially calmed political rivalries by redirecting focus toward the health crisis, it may in the medium term exacerbate instability. The author highlights risks of unorganised riots driven by economic desperation and a potential regime-opposition standoff over how the country should be governed after the state of emergency ends and the ruling party's term expires. It suggests that stability depends on the capacity of political actors to negotiate a constitutionally mandated governance framework and the government's willingness to involve non-state actors in pandemic management.

The document examines the link between armed conflict and forced displacement in Africa, noting that the number of forcibly displaced people more than doubled from 11 million in 2013 to 25.7 million in 2019. It assesses the African Union's (AU) 'Silencing the Guns' initiative, arguing that while infrastructure like the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) and the Panel of the Wise exists, implementation is hindered by a lack of conceptual coherence and poor governance. The brief highlights that governance deficiencies, corruption, and the illicit trade of firearms—with over 40 million civilian-held firearms in Africa—drive conflict and displacement. It recommends that the AU move from early warning to early action, improve interdepartmental coordination, and address the structural root causes of conflict to facilitate durable solutions like repatriation.

The document details a project in Touwsranten, South Africa, that integrated household-level parenting programmes with community-led social activation. This synergistic approach led to a decrease in corporal punishment, reduced child behavioural problems, and improved parent mental health. The project utilised action research and a steering committee to develop contextually relevant activities, such as a parenting manifesto and community events, to foster a collective commitment to non-violent parenting.

The document examines how communications strategies can build resilience against violent extremism in West and Central Africa, specifically focusing on the Lake Chad Basin and Côte d’Ivoire. It identifies poverty, unemployment, and illiteracy as primary drivers of extremism and highlights the struggle of local civil society organisations (CSOs) to reach rural, low-tech populations. The brief advocates for the use of positive narratives over counter-narratives due to the lack of religious expertise among CSOs and the risk of retaliation from extremist groups. It emphasizes the effectiveness of radio and face-to-face meetings, while noting significant barriers such as language gaps, cultural norms restricting women's participation, and a lack of government-led strategic guidelines.

The document argues that the African Union's PCRD framework is essential for youth-focused peacebuilding, but its success depends on prioritising socio-economic and political opportunities for young people. It highlights that the absence of inclusive youth policies increases the risk of returning to violence. While some states like Côte d'Ivoire have established dedicated youth ministries to foster policy development, others like Libya and the Central African Republic struggle with implementation due to fragile governance and recurring conflict. The brief recommends that the AU and member states prioritise early youth policy development, create dedicated youth ministries, and ensure all policies are accompanied by monitorable action plans.

The document argues that the South African National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) was severely damaged by political interference and poor leadership during the state capture years, leading to a loss of public trust and diminished performance. It proposes the creation of a civil society network to support prosecutorial reform, advocate for transparent leadership appointments, and educate the public on the NPA's mandate. Drawing on a similar initiative in Mexico, the brief suggests that coordinated civil society action can help institutionalise merit-based appointments and establish effective complaints mechanisms to ensure the NPA operates without fear, favour, or prejudice.

The document examines the shortcomings of current border security reforms in North and West Africa, noting that they often ignore the unique needs of borderland communities and the complexity of overlapping security mandates. It recommends a shift toward community consultation, the reduction of military roles in favour of law enforcement, and increased cross-border cooperation between neighbouring states.

The document examines the relationship between climate change and migration in Africa, challenging the narrative of mass international 'climate refugee' flows. It posits that migration is an active resilience strategy used by households to diversify income and spread risk, though the most vulnerable are often trapped by a lack of resources. The brief highlights the prevalence of internal migration, the risks of unplanned urbanisation, and the need for African policymakers to develop governance frameworks tailored to local realities rather than relying on international models.

The report argues that framing migration as a security threat—driven largely by EU policies to stem migration to Europe—leads to restrictive border controls and the criminalisation of smuggling. Using Agadez, Niger, as a case study, the author demonstrates that these securitised approaches do not stop irregular migration but instead increase local insecurity, empower high-level smugglers, expose migrants to greater risks, and erode trust between citizens and governments. The document recommends shifting the narrative toward evidence-based migration management and expanding legal pathways for movement within Africa and between Africa and the EU.

The report examines the role of 'social control' or public accountability in democratic policing, contrasting 'back-end' accountability (addressing misconduct after it occurs) with 'front-end' accountability (public involvement in policy and practice). It identifies challenges to public engagement in fragile democracies, such as social inequalities and the use of police as tools for ruling elites. The author proposes a four-step approach for African contexts: opening communication lines, building trust through dialogue, developing multi-tiered partnerships, and collaborating on community-level problem solving. Case studies from Jamaica, the US, Brazil, and Honduras illustrate various collaborative and confrontational mechanisms of public oversight.

The report finds that while social media engagement alone achieves limited results in promoting police accountability in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, it serves as a valuable tool for documenting misconduct and mobilising the public. Analysis shows a general net negative sentiment towards police in all three countries, though the nature of engagement varies: Kenyans and Ugandans frequently tag official police handles, whereas Tanzanians rely more on activist profiles due to a more repressive environment. The study highlights that police responsiveness on social media directly correlates with improved public sentiment, though overall response rates remain very low.

The report analyzes the drivers of ethnic conflict in contemporary Ethiopia, focusing on the cyclical relationship between political institutions and nationalist mobilizations. It argues that the 'centralised ethno federation' established by the EPRDF created fault lines that, when combined with recent political liberalization and institutional fragility, led to widespread violence. The author examines specific conflicts in the north, west, and south, applying the concepts of the 'security dilemma' and 'invidious comparison' to explain micro-level violence. The document concludes that sustainable stability requires transforming the ruling party, conducting inclusive national dialogue, and reclaiming state autonomy from mob influence.