Silencing the guns can reduce forced displacement

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies examines the relationship between armed conflict and forced displacement in Africa. It evaluates the African Union's (AU) 'Silencing the Guns in Africa by 2020' initiative, arguing that while the AU has established necessary infrastructure for early warning and preventive diplomacy, poor governance and structural root causes continue to drive conflict and displacement.

• Armed conflict is identified as the primary driver of forced displacement across Africa, with a direct correlation between conflict trends and displacement hotspots.
• The number of forcibly displaced people in Africa increased significantly between 2013 and 2019, rising from 11 million to 25.7 million. As of the end of 2019, this total included 6.8 million refugees and 18.9 million internally displaced people.
• Africa has not achieved the goal of the 'Silencing the Guns in Africa by 2020' initiative. Since its 2013 adoption, new conflicts and subsequent displacement have emerged in several countries, including Burkina Faso, Burundi-Rwanda, The Gambia, Cameroon, Ethiopia, and Mozambique.
• Poor governance is a central cause of conflict and displacement in Africa, encompassing issues such as state mismanagement, high-level corruption, and the manipulation of political processes. The Horn, East, and Great Lakes regions are noted as facing the most severe governance challenges and fragility.
• Corruption and the illicit trade of weapons further exacerbate violence and displacement. Sub-Saharan Africa's average score on the 2019/20 Corruption Perceptions Index was 32 out of 100, below the global average of 43. Over 40 million firearms are held by civilian actors in Africa, with only 15% registered.
• The African Union possesses the necessary infrastructure to prevent conflict escalation, including the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS), the Panel of the Wise, and Regional Economic Communities (RECs). However, the brief argues these must move from early warning to early action and improve interdepartmental coordination.

APA

Abebe, T. T., & Maunganidze, O. A. (2020). Silencing the guns can reduce forced displacement. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb152.pdf

Chicago

Abebe, Tsion Tadesse, and Ottilia Anna Maunganidze. Silencing the guns can reduce forced displacement. Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb152.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Abebe |first1=Tsion Tadesse |last2=Maunganidze |first2=Ottilia Anna |title=Silencing the guns can reduce forced displacement |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2020 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb152.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{abebe2020silencing, author = {Abebe, Tsion Tadesse and Maunganidze, Ottilia Anna}, title = {{Silencing the guns can reduce forced displacement}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb152.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }