Silencing the guns can reduce forced displacement

The document examines the link between armed conflict and forced displacement in Africa, noting that the number of forcibly displaced people more than doubled from 11 million in 2013 to 25.7 million in 2019. It assesses the African Union's (AU) 'Silencing the Guns' initiative, arguing that while infrastructure like the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) and the Panel of the Wise exists, implementation is hindered by a lack of conceptual coherence and poor governance. The brief highlights that governance deficiencies, corruption, and the illicit trade of firearms—with over 40 million civilian-held firearms in Africa—drive conflict and displacement. It recommends that the AU move from early warning to early action, improve interdepartmental coordination, and address the structural root causes of conflict to facilitate durable solutions like repatriation.

• Armed conflict is the primary driver of forced displacement in Africa, with the total number of forcibly displaced persons increasing from 11 million in 2013 to 25.7 million by the end of 2019.
• The African Union has not achieved its goal of 'silencing the guns' by 2020, as new conflicts emerged between 2013 and 2019 in countries including Burkina Faso, Burundi, Rwanda, The Gambia, Cameroon, Ethiopia, and Mozambique.
• Poor governance, including state mismanagement, corruption, and human rights violations, is a central cause of conflict and subsequent forced displacement across the continent.
• There is a significant correlation between high levels of corruption and forced displacement; for example, Somalia and South Sudan are among the most corrupt countries globally and are also major refugee-producing nations.
• The proliferation of uncontrolled firearms exacerbates violence and displacement, with over 40 million firearms held by civilians in Africa, the highest concentrations being in Western, Northern, and Eastern Africa.
• The AU possesses the necessary infrastructure for conflict prevention—such as the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS), the Panel of the Wise, and Regional Economic Communities (RECs)—but these must be better coordinated and transitioned from early warning to early action.

APA

Abebe, T. T., & Maunganidze, O. A. (2020). Silencing the guns can reduce forced displacement. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb152.pdf

Chicago

Abebe, Tsion Tadesse, and Ottilia Anna Maunganidze. Silencing the guns can reduce forced displacement. Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb152.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Abebe |first1=Tsion Tadesse |last2=Maunganidze |first2=Ottilia Anna |title=Silencing the guns can reduce forced displacement |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2020 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb152.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{abebe2020silencing, author = {Abebe, Tsion Tadesse and Maunganidze, Ottilia Anna}, title = {{Silencing the guns can reduce forced displacement}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb152.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }