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This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the projected impacts of a 'Demographics and Health scenario' on Africa by 2043. It compares this scenario against a 'Current Path' baseline, forecasting improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH), disease burden, infant mortality, life expectancy, and overall economic prosperity.

This research paper introduction from the Institute for Security Studies provides an overview of the current global climate crisis, highlighting record-breaking temperatures in 2024, the increasing frequency of weather-related disasters, and the rising scale of climate-induced displacement. It emphasizes the gap between current policies and the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, while noting the persistent rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

This report section analyzes income and wealth inequality across Africa, noting that high inequality levels contribute to slow poverty reduction and instability. It compares regional Gini index trends and wealth concentration, while examining specific national cases like Tunisia, Ethiopia, Botswana, and Ghana to illustrate the relationship between governance, growth, and inequality.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the disproportionate impact of climate change on Africa, detailing the frequency of climate-related disasters, the vulnerability of populations due to socio-economic factors, and the resulting threats to food security, health, and regional stability.

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers for the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the projected economic and social development of Africa by 2043 under a 'Combined scenario' compared to a 'Current Path'. The Combined scenario, which integrates policy coherence, governance, and strategic investment, projects significantly higher GDP growth, increased GDP per capita, and a dramatic reduction in extreme poverty.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the structural and systemic barriers to trade within Africa, highlighting the impact of high tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and the continent's historical exclusion from global and regional value chains.

This research paper outlines the 'Demographics and Health Scenario' for Africa, a model designed to accelerate the continent's demographic transition and enhance its demographic dividend through targeted interventions in fertility, mortality, and Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WaSH) infrastructure.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines how Africa's health and Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WaSH) trajectories will impact global development, security, and economic stability. It highlights the potential for a demographic dividend if health outcomes improve, while warning that fragile health systems and climate-linked vulnerabilities could increase global pandemic risks and drive migration toward Europe and the Middle East.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes extreme poverty trends in Africa using a US$2.15 threshold. It highlights a divergence where the percentage of people in extreme poverty is declining, but the absolute number continues to rise due to rapid population growth, high inequality, and modest economic growth.

This document is the 'Purpose and Scope' section of a special report titled 'Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040'. It outlines the use of the International Futures modelling platform to analyze Algeria's current development state and project its trajectory to 2040, contrasting a 'Current Path' forecast with a positive 'Algerian Dream' scenario characterized by democratic governance and prosperity.

This policy brief advocates for treating water and sanitation as strategic assets to ensure peace, energy, and food security in Africa. It calls for the adoption of a Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus approach and Strategic Asset Management (SAM) to address a $1 trillion infrastructure gap by 2040. The brief emphasizes that water insecurity acts as a threat multiplier for conflict, particularly in the Sahel and Horn of Africa, and recommends integrating water governance into the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) to mitigate risks and promote regional stability.

This research paper analyzes the potential for African countries to finance climate mitigation and adaptation by redirecting explicit fossil fuel subsidies (EFFS) and increasing environmental taxes. While these domestic fiscal tools can contribute approximately 1.7% and 1.1% of Africa's GDP respectively, the author concludes they are insufficient to close the continent's overall climate finance gap of 5–10% of GDP. The paper recommends establishing independent fuel reserve authorities to stabilize prices and adopting gradual subsidy withdrawal strategies to avoid social unrest and inflation.

This technical guide by RMI analyzes the market, quality risks, and methodological evolution of clean and improved cookstove carbon credits. It details the transition from legacy methodologies, which faced allegations of over-crediting, to newer, more rigorous standards like VM0050 and the forthcoming CLEAR methodology. The document provides a detailed risk assessment, highlighting monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) as a high-concern area due to behavioral complexities such as stove stacking and the Hawthorne effect.

This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics examines the concept of 'temperature overshoot'—where global warming exceeds 1.5°C to 2°C before returning to those levels—and the associated risks of triggering irreversible climate tipping points. It argues that while the chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C by 2100 is now 'virtually zero', minimizing the magnitude and duration of overshoot is critical to avoid catastrophic Earth system collapses. The document contrasts dangerous climate tipping points with 'positive socio-economic tipping points' that can accelerate decarbonization, while warning that reliance on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and geoengineering introduces severe risks and does not replace the need for immediate, deep emissions cuts.

This policy brief examines how the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Programme (CAADP) can be leveraged to improve food security and food sovereignty across Africa. It identifies significant barriers to intra-African food trade, including high tariffs on sensitive food items, restrictive sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) standards for small enterprises, and a lack of coordinated strategic food reserves. The document recommends accelerating tariff removal, differentiating compliance requirements by enterprise size, and protecting indigenous genetic resources through intellectual property rights to build a more resilient and self-sufficient agricultural system.

This report by RMI examines the potential for integrating electrochemical carbon removal (CDR) technologies into coastal desalination value chains. It identifies synergies between desalination processes—such as the use of brine as a feedstock and shared pumping infrastructure—and the potential for these integrations to mitigate the environmental impacts of brine discharge while contributing to global climate goals.

The April 2025 Peace & Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies evaluates the African Union's (AU) peace and security architecture, focusing on the second term of PAPS Commissioner Bankole Adeoye, regional divisions in North Africa, the new AUSSOM mission in Somalia, and the challenges of mediation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

This report by Ember and the Clean Air Task Force examines how environmental conditions—specifically cloud cover, terrain roughness, solar elevation, surface brightness, and wind speed—limit the effectiveness of satellite-based methane monitoring. It highlights that approximately 30% of global coal, oil, and gas extraction infrastructure is located in regions where these factors make satellite observation difficult, necessitating a multi-tiered observation strategy that integrates space-based data with aircraft, drones, and ground-based sensors.

This briefing by RMI argues for the establishment of a standardized near-zero emissions threshold for iron production to stimulate investment and trade in decarbonized steel. It proposes a threshold of 350 kgCO2e/t iron and suggests implementing a 'book and claim' market mechanism to connect corporate buyers with clean iron producers, overcoming the complexities of multi-tiered supply chains.

A report by the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL) and Friends of the Earth US analyzing the risks and geographic scope of marine geoengineering technologies, arguing that these speculative interventions threaten all ocean basins and distract from fossil fuel phaseout.