Temperature overshoot and tipping points

The document explains that limiting global warming to 1.5°C will likely involve 'temperature overshoot', where targets are exceeded before returning to lower levels. Such overshoot increases the risk of triggering irreversible climate tipping points, such as the transformation of the Amazon rainforest into a savanna. The author argues that relying on large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) or geoengineering to correct overshoot is risky and uncertain, emphasizing that immediate, deep emissions cuts are the only reliable way to maintain a habitable planet. It also introduces the concept of 'positive socio-economic tipping points' as a strategic means to accelerate the transition to net zero.

• The probability of limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century is now considered 'virtually zero', even under optimistic scenarios where all national climate plans and net zero pledges are fulfilled.
• Most pathways to achieve the 1.5°C target involve temperature overshoot, with 90% of mitigation pathways in the IPCC's Global Warming of 1.5°C report including such a period.
• Temperature overshoot increases the likelihood of reaching climate tipping points by 72% compared to scenarios without overshoot, potentially triggering irreversible changes like the Amazon rainforest becoming a savanna via a deforestation-drought feedback loop.
• The Earth has already breached seven of nine identified planetary system boundaries: climate change, biosphere integrity, land-use change, biogeochemical flows, novel entities, freshwater change, and ocean acidification, the latter of which was added as breached in September 2025.
• Relying on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to reverse temperature overshoot is risky because nature-based solutions and BECCS may threaten food security and biodiversity, while direct air capture (DAC) technology is currently in its infancy and unproven at scale.
• Solar radiation management (SRM) is an insufficient replacement for emissions cuts as it does not address greenhouse gas concentrations and may cause severe unintended consequences, including modified monsoon systems and droughts in tropical regions.
• Strategic focus on 'positive socio-economic tipping points'—conditions that accelerate the adoption of net-zero technologies—can drive decarbonisation, as seen with the rapid cost reduction and deployment of solar and wind power over the last decade.

APA

Team, Z. (2025). Temperature overshoot and tipping points. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/temperature-overshoot-and-tipping-points/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. Temperature overshoot and tipping points. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2025. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/temperature-overshoot-and-tipping-points/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=Temperature overshoot and tipping points |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=10 October 2025 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/temperature-overshoot-and-tipping-points/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2025temperature, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{Temperature overshoot and tipping points}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2025}, month = oct, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/temperature-overshoot-and-tipping-points/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }