Temperature overshoot and tipping points

This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics examines the concept of 'temperature overshoot'—where global warming exceeds 1.5°C to 2°C before returning to those levels—and the associated risks of triggering irreversible climate tipping points. It argues that while the chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C by 2100 is now 'virtually zero', minimizing the magnitude and duration of overshoot is critical to avoid catastrophic Earth system collapses. The document contrasts dangerous climate tipping points with 'positive socio-economic tipping points' that can accelerate decarbonization, while warning that reliance on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and geoengineering introduces severe risks and does not replace the need for immediate, deep emissions cuts.

• The probability of limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century is now considered 'virtually zero', even under optimistic scenarios where all national climate plans and net zero pledges are met.
• Temperature overshoot occurs when warming exceeds a specific level, typically 1.5°C to 2°C, for at least 10 years before returning to that level. In the IPCC's Global Warming of 1.5°C report, 90% of mitigation pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C by 2100 include such an overshoot.
• Even temporary temperature overshoot significantly increases the risk of triggering climate tipping points—self-perpetuating feedback loops that can cause irreversible changes. For example, a deforestation-drought loop could transform the Amazon rainforest into a savanna, switching it from a carbon sink to a carbon source.
• The Earth has breached seven of nine identified planetary system boundaries necessary to keep the planet habitable: climate change, biosphere integrity, land-use change, biogeochemical flows, novel entities, freshwater change, and ocean acidification (the latter added in September 2025).
• Relying on large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to reverse temperature overshoot is risky because nature-based solutions and BECCS may threaten food security and biodiversity, while direct air capture (DAC) technology is still in its infancy and unproven at the required scale.
• Geoengineering, specifically solar radiation management (SRM), does not address the root causes of climate change and introduces risks such as modified monsoon systems, droughts in tropical regions, and geopolitical instability. If stopped prematurely, SRM could cause very rapid warming.
• Strategic focus on 'positive socio-economic tipping points'—conditions that accelerate the adoption of net-zero technologies, such as the rapid cost reduction of solar and wind power—can drive decarbonization and help meet the 1.5°C target.

APA

Team, Z. (2025). Temperature overshoot and tipping points. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/temperature-overshoot-and-tipping-points/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. Temperature overshoot and tipping points. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2025. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/temperature-overshoot-and-tipping-points/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=Temperature overshoot and tipping points |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=10 October 2025 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/temperature-overshoot-and-tipping-points/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2025temperature, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{Temperature overshoot and tipping points}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2025}, month = oct, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/temperature-overshoot-and-tipping-points/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }