Search Climate Insights Directory

The paper introduces a simplified cross-impact balance (CIB) approach for cross-scale scenario development, allowing global scenarios to serve as stable external conditions for local and regional analysis.

The Doha Declaration on Climate, Health and Wellbeing, drafted by the Global Climate and Health Alliance in December 2012, asserts that health should be central to climate action. It highlights that climate change impacts health through direct means, such as extreme weather and infectious diseases, and indirect means, such as migration and conflict, disproportionately affecting children, women, and poorer populations. The declaration argues that climate mitigation—specifically reducing fossil fuel consumption and shifting to low-carbon energy—provides significant health co-benefits, including improved air quality and increased physical activity. The signatories call for health impacts to be fully evaluated and costed in climate decisions, the cessation of global fossil fuel subsidies, increased funding for health programs in vulnerable countries, and the inclusion of the health sector in designing mitigation and adaptation strategies.

The briefing asserts that aviation emissions are exceeding forecasts and that the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) is inadequate for achieving climate stability targets.

The NDC Update Report November 2018 examines the 'Ambition' of governments in implementing the Paris Agreement. Based on a survey of 92 policymakers and experts, the report finds that while confidence in initial NDC implementation is high, there is a critical lack of long-term strategic planning. It argues that focusing solely on first-round NDCs is insufficient, as the Paris Agreement requires a transition to net zero emissions. The report advocates for a 'whole of government' approach and the development of long-term visions to guide sector transformation, financial shifts from 'brown to green' investments, and more ambitious second-round pledges in 2020.

The document asserts that the current 'Climate Finance Paradigm' used by Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs)—which focuses on maximizing finance for mitigation and adaptation—is insufficient. It proposes a 'Paris Alignment Paradigm' that requires MDBs to align their entire portfolios with the Paris Agreement, mainstream adaptation across all operations, and assist countries in strengthening their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The report emphasizes that MDBs and shareholders should commit to a zero-emissions energy sector and overall net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050, working with clients to find renewable alternatives to emission-intensive activities.

The 2018 Lancet Countdown identifies extreme heat as the primary health concern globally, noting that 157 million more vulnerable people were exposed to heat waves in 2017 compared to 2000. In Canada, the report links air pollution from human activity to 7,142 premature deaths in 2015, with health impacts valued at $53.5 billion. The document advocates for carbon pricing, the phase-out of coal-fired power plants by 2030, and the integration of climate health into medical curricula.

The briefing proposes a new global Convention on Plastic Pollution to address the failure of existing fragmented governance to manage the 335 million tonnes of plastic produced annually. It outlines four pillars of action: coordination with existing treaties, pollution prevention through production caps and market restrictions, financial support for developing countries, and technical knowledge exchange. The proposed institutional architecture includes a Conference of the Parties, a secretariat hosted by UN Environment, and a Multilateral Fund modeled after the Montreal Protocol.

CIEL welcomes the IFC's official position against retaliation—including threats, intimidation, harassment, or violence—by IFC clients against those voicing opinions on projects. CIEL emphasizes the importance of integrating retaliation risks into contextual risk screening procedures to prevent harm and urges the IFC to compel its clients and co-financing partners to adopt similar zero-tolerance commitments.

The report evaluates the role of cities, regions, companies, and investors in climate mitigation. While the potential for these actors to reduce emissions is vast—potentially up to 15-23 GtCO2 e per year by 2030—their current contribution remains limited. The document highlights a lack of consistent reporting and data, and calls for improved transparency, quantifiable targets, and stronger government support to scale up these efforts.

The research examines the sensitivity of electric vehicle (EV) adoption to battery costs, finding that EVs only achieve a significant global market share of 15% or more when battery costs drop to 100 $/kWh or less. While battery costs have fallen faster than previously estimated, the transport sector remains a more challenging area for greenhouse gas emission reductions compared to other sectors.

The study argues that current national climate plans are insufficient and would necessitate disruptive changes after 2030. By implementing a global roll-out of regional regulatory policies across energy, transport, buildings, industry, and land use, global CO2 emissions could be reduced by an additional 10 GtCO2eq by 2030. While these policies are less disruptive than immediate global carbon pricing, they result in higher economic impacts, suggesting they should complement rather than replace carbon pricing to achieve the Paris goals.

The study finds that replicating successful sectoral policies globally could reduce projected 2030 annual GHG emissions to approximately 50 GtCO2e, compared to 60 GtCO2e under current policies. The most significant reductions would occur in the electricity sector through renewable energy expansion, followed by reductions in fluorinated gases, oil and gas venting and flaring, and industrial efficiency. While this approach would significantly narrow the emissions gap with a 2°C pathway, it would not close it entirely.

The document examines the design of the global stocktake under Article 14 of the Paris Agreement, emphasizing the need for robust, inclusive modalities that allow the process to evolve based on technological and societal changes to inform the enhancement of national climate actions.

The Climate Action Tracker reports that current national commitments and policies are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement's warming limits, projecting temperature increases of 3.2°C to 3.4°C by 2100. To align with a 1.5°C limit, global emissions must peak by 2020, requiring rapid decarbonization across the electricity, transport, building, industry, and agriculture sectors.

The paper outlines the development of 25 tropospheric ozone metrics categorized by their application to model-measurement comparison, the free troposphere, human health, and vegetation. It emphasizes the necessity of using biologically defensible metrics and robust statistical methods, specifically the Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen estimator, to ensure consistency across thousands of global monitoring sites. A critical finding is that different metrics derived from the same ozone time-series can produce divergent trend patterns and conclusions regarding the effects of ozone variability drivers, such as precursor emissions, on health and vegetation exposure.

The Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL) asserts that current financing for the sound management of chemicals is insufficient and overly dependent on a small number of international donors. CIEL highlights a stark disparity in Global Environment Facility (GEF) funding, noting that only 13 million was dedicated to SAICM implementation compared to 541 million for a smaller set of substances. The statement argues that the chemical industry, with a global turnover of 4.1 trillion per year, should contribute directly to financing rather than claiming that tax payments and regulatory compliance constitute active financial participation. CIEL suggests that a levy of 0.1% on industry turnover would generate 4.1 billion annually, far exceeding current GEF contributions to SAICM.

The authors use a simulation-based multi-criteria land use optimization procedure to identify scenarios that balance terrestrial carbon storage, biodiversity conservation, land and water use, and food security. The analysis indicates that substantial increases in agricultural productivity are key to achieving better outcomes across these goals, with potential terrestrial carbon sequestration reaching 98 GtC and biodiversity risk reduction of 53%. The research also examines synergies and trade-offs between these global scenarios and local or national goals, such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The analysis indicates that farming practice changes alone are insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Achieving deep emission cuts aligned with the Paris Agreement's net-zero goal requires a holistic approach that integrates supply-side efficiency and innovation with demand-side changes, specifically altering diets and reducing food waste to address non-CO2 emissions while ensuring global food security.

The report evaluates global forest landscape restoration (FLR) ambitions by tracking pledges under the Bonn Challenge and commitments within Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted to the UNFCCC. While the 150 million hectare milestone for 2020 was surpassed in May 2017, actual implementation data remains scarce, with reported achievements representing less than 10 percent of the 2020 goal. The document also highlights the role of regional initiatives and new data tools like the Bonn Challenge Barometer and ROAM in improving monitoring and planning.

The report concludes that Goal 6 has been achieved through the adoption of SDG 15, although it notes that the indicators used to measure progress on halting deforestation track net rather than gross loss, which weakens the target's practical application. While the conservation target is considered quantifiable and ambitious, the restoration, afforestation, and reforestation components of SDG 15.2 are not quantifiable.