Search Climate Insights Directory

The paper advocates for the use of strategic foresight and integrated policy analysis to help African governments navigate complex development trade-offs and set realistic targets. It highlights the International Futures (IFs) model as a tool for scenario analysis and evidence-based planning, using it to critique the feasibility of certain Agenda 2063 goals, such as the eradication of extreme poverty by 2030 and the 'silencing the guns' initiative by 2020. The author emphasizes that such foresight is dependent on improving the quality and availability of reliable data across the continent.

The analysis finds that armed conflict in Africa generally follows a global pattern of decline when measured relative to population growth, though this was disrupted by the Cold War and has seen a recent uptick since 2010. Africa is uniquely characterized by high levels of 'non-state conflict'—violence between armed groups not involving the government—which the author attributes to weak governance. While terrorism is rising globally, the Middle East is currently experiencing faster growth than Africa. The paper also highlights that internal conflicts now dominate globally over interstate wars, and warns that climate change may increase local conflicts over resources in northern and southern Africa.

The policy brief argues that peace agreements in the DRC, specifically the Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement and the Addis Ababa Framework Agreement (AAFA), reflect shifts in economic power between the eastern Kivus and the southern Katanga province. While early conflicts and the ICGLR were driven by the exploitation of coltan and other minerals in the east by Rwanda and Uganda, the subsequent rise of copper and cobalt investments in Katanga shifted geopolitical influence toward SADC states.

The document analyzes Kenya's regional diplomatic history, noting a traditional preference for cautious, pragmatic engagement over political leadership. It highlights a significant shift in approach with the military intervention in Somalia and discusses the complexities of Kenya's relations with South Africa and the East African Community. The author argues that Kenya often 'punches below its weight' and recommends a more strategic use of hard and soft power to enhance its regional leverage.

The paper argues that for the SDGs to deliver climate compatible development, climate change must be both a stand-alone goal and mainstreamed across all other goals. It highlights a lack of quantitative targets in the Open Working Group's draft and emphasizes the need for nationally relevant indicators and local-level resilience. The document suggests that the SDGs should complement the UNFCCC process rather than duplicate it, and calls for coordinated financing to avoid gaps in climate compatible development funding.

The emergence of the Islamic State represents a significant shift in global jihadism, offering a divisive alternative to al-Qaeda. Africa is particularly vulnerable due to the presence of established radical Islamist groups and the potential return of thousands of battle-hardened African fighters from Iraq and Syria. The document warns that the Islamic State's model of territorial occupation and its extreme ideology could destabilise several African regions, particularly North and West Africa. It argues that governments should avoid draconian counter-terrorism measures, which often fuel radicalisation, and instead pursue criminal justice-based approaches that address local drivers of discontent.

This research paper analyzes the potential costs and benefits for Ethiopia of joining the COMESA Free Trade Area (FTA). It finds that Ethiopia's infant manufacturing sector is not yet competitive and that joining the FTA could increase net unemployment. However, it notes that Ethiopia is successfully expanding economic cooperation in energy and transport with neighbors such as Kenya, Sudan, Djibouti, and South Sudan, suggesting that bilateral relations may be more beneficial than formal trade liberalization.

The document introduces the Participatory Social Return on Investment (PSROI) framework, a bottom-up approach designed to provide credible local-level evidence for the costing of community-based adaptation (CBA) strategies in agriculture. It argues that top-down national estimates risk mismatching funds with actual ground requirements, whereas the PSROI framework uses participatory workshops and a novel cost-benefit analysis to evaluate economic, social, and environmental impacts. The framework was piloted in Kenya and Senegal to test its scalability and effectiveness.

The document provides a strategy for the Kenya Private Sector Alliance (KEPSA) to lead private sector engagement with the Kenyan government on climate change. It identifies climate change as a threat to economic growth and productivity, noting that droughts and flooding cost Kenya approximately 2.4% of GDP annually. The strategy focuses on three pillars: leading government dialogue, sharing information with members, and building climate resilience. A detailed one-year work plan includes establishing communication processes, developing policy positions on the Climate Change Bill, and creating climate risk assessment tools. The report emphasizes the need for high-level board commitment and internal resource allocation to avoid the failures of previous initiatives like the Climate Business Information Network (CBIN).

The paper argues that elections in Africa often trigger instability because they are primarily viewed as a means of accessing state resources. It suggests that stability requires 'inclusive political settlements' and a move away from 'electoral autocracy' where elections are used to consolidate power. The author emphasizes the need for credible Election Management Bodies (EMBs), legitimate domestic observation, and inclusive mediation mechanisms involving civil society and traditional leaders to prevent violence.

The report examines the integration of climate mitigation, adaptation, and food security within the agricultural sector. It focuses on identifying synergies and trade-offs to help policymakers in developing countries overcome barriers and optimally access international climate finance for food-security related elements of national climate change strategies.

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is a US-Africa trade agreement established in 2001 that provides duty-free access to the US market for qualifying sub-Saharan African states. While exports from AGOA countries to the US grew by 78% between 2001 and 2014, the trade is heavily dominated by energy and commodities, with mineral fuels and oils accounting for 68% of imports. South Africa is a primary beneficiary, contributing an estimated 62,395 jobs and exporting high-end manufactured goods such as vehicles, unlike many other AGOA partners who rely on raw materials.

The document argues that traditional 'wait and see and respond' approaches to climate disasters are insufficient, particularly for vulnerable populations in developing countries. It proposes the use of participatory games and simulations as innovative tools to help humanitarian organizations evolve into knowledge-based entities capable of acting on scientific climate information. These tools are designed to approximate real-life complexity and elicit insights from professionals to improve forecast-based humanitarian decisions and climate risk management.

The document analyzes the drivers and barriers to low-carbon energy in Kenya, noting that while energy security and climate vulnerability favor renewables, recent oil and gas discoveries may hinder this transition.

The report analyzes the mitigation efforts of 14 priority countries and regions, highlighting a wide variation in ambition and activity. While large emitters like India and Indonesia have established legislation and quantitative targets, many other partner countries, particularly in Africa and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), prioritize adaptation due to extreme vulnerability. The analysis identifies key trends, such as the integration of low-emissions paths into economic development strategies and a heavy reliance on donor-funded projects for capacity building and MRV systems.

The paper examines why elections in Africa often trigger violence and fail to legitimise power, attributing this to high stakes regarding access to state resources. It argues that technical fixes are insufficient and that stability requires inclusive political settlements, credible election management bodies (EMBs), and robust domestic observation and mediation systems involving civil society and traditional leaders.

The document examines the tension between the Africa Mining Vision's goals of sustainable development and the legal constraints imposed by Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs). It evaluates ownership-related policies and performance requirements, concluding that while these tools can be effective for creating national champions and local linkages, they often conflict with treaty obligations regarding national treatment and expropriation.

The document argues that agricultural cooperatives promote inclusive investment by allowing farmers to maintain control over resources while achieving economies of scale. It highlights that well-organized cooperatives reduce risk for foreign investors and facilitate more efficient contracting. The brief emphasizes that government support should be limited to creating an enabling legal environment and providing technical resources, rather than interfering in internal management, as bottom-up initiatives are generally more successful.

The document promotes agricultural cooperatives as a socially and politically acceptable alternative to 'land grabbing,' allowing farmers to retain control of their resources while accessing markets and finance. It distinguishes between production and service cooperatives and highlights the benefits of collective bargaining and resource sharing. The text emphasizes that while foreign investment can reduce risk and provide capital, government support should be limited to creating a favorable legal environment and providing technical training, rather than direct interference in management.

The 2013 elections in Kenya and Zimbabwe were 'first-generation' polls following violent cycles in 2007 and 2008. While both were peaceful, they differed in the scale of reform: Kenya implemented extensive judicial and security changes over two and a half years, whereas Zimbabwe had barely two months to enact minimal reforms. The document argues that excessive reliance on technology in Kenya created dangerous stand-offs, while Zimbabwe's rushed process led to a flawed voters' roll. Both cases highlight a growing resistance to Western interference in 'sovereign moments' of democratisation, particularly regarding transitional justice and the International Criminal Court.