The Islamic State: why Africa should be worried

The emergence of the Islamic State represents a significant shift in global jihadism, offering a divisive alternative to al-Qaeda. Africa is particularly vulnerable due to the presence of established radical Islamist groups and the potential return of thousands of battle-hardened African fighters from Iraq and Syria. The document warns that the Islamic State's model of territorial occupation and its extreme ideology could destabilise several African regions, particularly North and West Africa. It argues that governments should avoid draconian counter-terrorism measures, which often fuel radicalisation, and instead pursue criminal justice-based approaches that address local drivers of discontent.

• The Islamic State is currently the wealthiest terrorist organisation globally, with assets estimated to exceed US$2 billion. This wealth is derived from looted banks, captured military supplies, and the control of revenue-generating infrastructure, specifically oil fields which can generate up to US$3 million daily on the black market.
• Africa faces a significant security risk from the return of foreign fighters who have gained combat experience and training in Syria and Iraq. Estimated numbers of fighters include 200 to 800 from Algeria, 600 to 1,000 from Libya, and 1,000 to 3,000 each from Morocco and Tunisia.
• The Islamic State's strategy in Africa is likely to involve cooperating with or co-opting existing radical groups rather than expanding independently. Examples include the influence of the group on Ansar al-Sharia Libya, which declared an 'Islamic Emirate' in Benghazi after the Islamic State ordered Libyan fighters to return and assist them.
• The declaration of a Caliphate serves as a potent propaganda and recruiting tool that transcends national borders. This ideology encourages the transition from guerrilla warfare to the traditional occupation of territory, posing a grave threat to the sovereignty of African nation-states.
• The Islamic State is characterized by a more extreme application of violence and the doctrine of takfir (declaring other Muslims infidels) compared to al-Qaeda. This ideological shift may lead to more frequent and sensational terrorist attacks and harsher penalties in areas controlled by African Islamist groups.
• Heavy-handed and draconian counter-terrorism strategies, including human rights abuses and ethnic profiling, often backfire by serving as recruiting tools for extremists. In Kenya, 65% of surveyed militants claimed they joined radical groups due to injustices and 'collective punishment' by security forces.

APA

Allison, S. (2014). The Islamic State: why Africa should be worried. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief68.pdf

Chicago

Allison, Simon. The Islamic State: why Africa should be worried. Institute for Security Studies, 2014. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief68.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Allison |first1=Simon |title=The Islamic State: why Africa should be worried |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=September 2014 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief68.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{allison2014islamic, author = {Allison, Simon}, title = {{The Islamic State: why Africa should be worried}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2014}, month = sep, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief68.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }