Elections and the Risk of Instability in Africa: Supporting Legitimate Electoral Processes

This research paper by Ivan Crouzel for the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) examines the relationship between electoral processes and political instability in Africa. It argues that elections often crystallise tensions because they are viewed as the primary means of accessing state-owned resources, leading to acute competition in fragile regimes. The author contends that technical electoral support is insufficient and must be replaced by a broader democratic governance approach that prioritises inclusive political agreements, credible election management bodies (EMBs), and multi-stakeholder conflict prevention mechanisms.

• Elections in Africa frequently act as catalysts for violence and instability rather than tools for legitimising power, particularly in fragile regimes where victory provides essential access to state-owned resources.
• Some regimes use elections as a tool for 'artificial stability' to capture and maintain power for specific elites, which undermines social foundations and can lead to violent conflict, as seen during the Arab Spring.
• Inclusive political agreements that share power and resources are critical for stability; proportional voting systems are noted as being more effective than 'winner takes all' majority voting in mitigating political rivalries in Africa.
• Election Management Bodies (EMBs) in many African countries lack the independence, professional capacity, and sustainability required to be credible, often failing to build institutional memory between election cycles.
• National observation systems led by civil society organisations (CSOs) often possess greater internal legitimacy and local knowledge than international observer missions, which are sometimes criticised for favouring short-term stability over disputed results.
• Effective prevention of electoral violence requires inclusive mediation systems and early warning mechanisms that involve a diverse range of stakeholders, including religious and traditional leaders.

APA

Crouzel, I. (2014). Elections and the Risk of Instability in Africa: Supporting Legitimate Electoral Processes. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Occasional-Paper-196.pdf

Chicago

Crouzel, Ivan. Elections and the Risk of Instability in Africa: Supporting Legitimate Electoral Processes. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2014. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Occasional-Paper-196.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Crouzel |first1=Ivan |title=Elections and the Risk of Instability in Africa: Supporting Legitimate Electoral Processes |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=July 2014 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Occasional-Paper-196.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{crouzel2014elections, author = {Crouzel, Ivan}, title = {{Elections and the Risk of Instability in Africa: Supporting Legitimate Electoral Processes}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2014}, month = jul, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Occasional-Paper-196.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }