Elections and the Risk of Instability in Africa: Supporting Legitimate Electoral Processes

The paper examines why elections in Africa often trigger violence and fail to legitimise power, attributing this to high stakes regarding access to state resources. It argues that technical fixes are insufficient and that stability requires inclusive political settlements, credible election management bodies (EMBs), and robust domestic observation and mediation systems involving civil society and traditional leaders.

• Elections in Africa frequently crystallise political tensions and lead to violence because they are viewed as the primary means of accessing state-owned resources, meaning losers are often excluded from public funds.
• Some regimes use elections as a tool for power capture rather than democratic legitimisation, employing tactics such as gerrymandering, ballot stuffing, and the use of public funds for partisan campaigns to maintain a political economy that serves their own interests.
• The choice of electoral system impacts stability; majority voting (first-past-the-post) tends to increase tensions through a 'winner takes all' dynamic, whereas proportional voting can mitigate rivalries and increase representation.
• Election Management Bodies (EMBs) in many African countries lack the independence, professional capacity, and sustainability needed to be credible, often failing to build institutional memory due to frequent member rotation.
• Domestic election observation systems led by civil society organisations (CSOs) often possess greater internal legitimacy and effectiveness in reducing violence than international missions, which are sometimes criticised for limited local knowledge and favouring short-term stability.
• Effective prevention of electoral violence requires inclusive mediation systems and early warning mechanisms that involve a diverse range of actors, including religious leaders, traditional authorities, and CSOs.

APA

Crouzel, I. (2014). Elections and the Risk of Instability in Africa: Supporting Legitimate Electoral Processes. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Occasional-Paper-196.pdf

Chicago

Crouzel, Ivan. Elections and the Risk of Instability in Africa: Supporting Legitimate Electoral Processes. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2014. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Occasional-Paper-196.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Crouzel |first1=Ivan |title=Elections and the Risk of Instability in Africa: Supporting Legitimate Electoral Processes |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=July 2014 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Occasional-Paper-196.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{crouzel2014elections, author = {Crouzel, Ivan}, title = {{Elections and the Risk of Instability in Africa: Supporting Legitimate Electoral Processes}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2014}, month = jul, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Occasional-Paper-196.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }