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Assessing the Investment Signals of NDCs 3.0 Methodology
The report details a framework of seven indicators designed to evaluate how well non-Annex I countries communicate climate finance needs and strategies in their NDCs to attract private and international capital. The methodology employs a graduated scoring system from 'absent' to 'strong' to measure the 'investability' of these documents. As of May 31, 2025, the framework was applied to 18 non-Annex I parties, comparing their most recent submissions with previous ones to track progress in financial transparency and planning.
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Document type: Report
A Care Approach to Achieving Gender Justice in Southern African Food Systems in the Context of Climate Change
The document examines the intersection of climate change, gender, and food systems in southern Africa, arguing that climate shocks intensify the burden of unpaid care work disproportionately borne by rural and working-class women. It critiques technocratic, productivity-focused agricultural policies and proposes a framework based on Feminist Ecological Economics and Feminist Political Ecology to reorient food systems around human needs and ecological regeneration. Key recommendations include the redistribution of care work, support for agroecology, and the implementation of gender-responsive fiscal policies.
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Document type: Research paper
Hoja de ruta para negociar los protocolos de la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre Cooperación Internacional en Cuestiones de Tributación
The document outlines a strategic framework for negotiating protocols under the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation (UN FCITC). It identifies two 'early protocols'—cross-border services and tax dispute resolution—and several 'possible protocols' including the digital economy, illicit financial flows, high-net-worth individuals, and environmental challenges. The report argues that the UN FCITC can provide a more inclusive and effective alternative to OECD-led frameworks, particularly for developing countries, by establishing global standards for taxing the digital economy, combating tax evasion, and coordinating climate-related fiscal policies.
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Document type: Report
A Roadmap for Negotiating the Protocols to the United Nations Framework Convention on Tax
The report outlines a strategic framework for negotiating protocols under the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation (UN FCITC). It identifies two 'early protocols'—taxation of cross-border services and the resolution of tax disputes—and several 'potential protocols' covering the digital economy, illicit financial flows, high-net-worth individuals, environmental taxation, information exchange, mutual assistance, and harmful tax practices. The document argues that the UN FCITC can provide a more inclusive and effective alternative to OECD-led initiatives, which often disadvantage developing nations. Key recommendations include establishing a global digital services tax, creating a global asset register for beneficial ownership, implementing a global minimum tax on the super-rich, and developing a coordinated multilateral environmental tax architecture to support net-zero goals.
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Document type: Report
Feuille de route pour la négociation des protocoles à la Convention-cadre des Nations Unies sur la coopération internationale en matière fiscale
The report outlines a strategic framework for negotiating protocols under the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation, focusing on enhancing tax revenue and fairness for developing countries. It details two preliminary protocols—cross-border services and tax dispute resolution—and several potential protocols covering the digital economy, illicit financial flows, high-net-worth individuals, environmental taxation, information exchange, mutual administrative assistance, and harmful tax practices. The document argues for a shift away from OECD-led standards, which it claims often disadvantage developing nations, toward a more inclusive UN-led multilateral architecture.
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Document type: Report
South Africa and the EU should collaborate to build strategic interdependence in critical minerals
The research paper proposes a strategic partnership between South Africa and the EU in the critical minerals sector as an alternative to the unpredictable diplomacy of the US administration. It highlights the complementary nature of their interests, noting that South Africa is a top producer of platinum group metals, manganese, and chromite, while the EU seeks to diversify its supply chains via the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA). The author identifies key challenges to implementation, including tensions over local value addition, private sector engagement, and the transparency of mineral agreements. The paper recommends that South Africa address structural infrastructure issues and that the EU provide targeted support for in-country beneficiation and ESG implementation to move from negotiation to tangible projects.
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Document type: Research paper
Finance for National Adaptation Plan Processes
The report examines the integration of finance within National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) across 59 developing countries. It finds that while most NAPs include dedicated finance sections and rely heavily on international public funding, there is a significant gap in detailed costing and the mobilization of private-sector finance. The authors recommend that countries move toward more investment-oriented NAP documents, implement climate-resilient fiscal planning, and adopt tailored financing strategies—particularly for Least Developed Countries (LDCs)—to bridge the adaptation finance gap.
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Document type: Report
Mozambique: More Repression Will Reverberate at Home and Abroad
Following the October 2024 elections, Mozambique has faced significant instability characterized by alleged vote rigging and a violent state crackdown. The ruling Frelimo party has maintained power through the suppression of dissent, including the killing of opposition members and journalists, and the strategic appointment of 'secretaries of state' to bypass decentralization. This domestic crisis has disrupted critical regional trade corridors, specifically the Maputo and Beira ports, affecting landlocked neighbors like Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia. The document argues that Frelimo's loss of legitimacy mirrors a broader trend across Southern Africa where former liberation movements are facing declining public support.
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Document type: Policy brief
Towards Just Resource Exploitation in a Green Transition
The document argues that while Africa holds approximately 30% of the world's critical mineral reserves, the surge in demand for green minerals risks exacerbating inequalities and environmental degradation without strong governance. It advocates for a transition from rigid to progressive taxation, the development of domestic value chains (such as battery and EV component manufacturing), and the strategic reinvestment of mineral rents into climate resilience initiatives and local community development to ensure a just transition.
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Document type: Policy brief
The Tumultuous Path Toward EU-China-Africa Trilateral Cooperation on Critical Raw Materials in Africa
The document analyzes the interdependencies between the EU, China, and Africa regarding critical raw materials (CRMs). While the EU seeks to reduce its reliance on China through initiatives like the Critical Raw Materials Act and the Global Gateway, the paper argues that complete decoupling is unfeasible due to China's dominance in midstream processing and the high costs of establishing independent European supply chains. It highlights that African nations, particularly the DRC and Zimbabwe, are increasingly pushing for local value addition and processing rather than mere extraction. The author proposes a trilateral cooperation model, using a hypothetical cobalt project in the DRC, where the EU provides technical training and financing, China provides refining technology and market access, and the DRC ensures resource ownership and local industrial development.
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Document type: Research paper
A Game-Changer in Flux: Recent Developments and Risks in the Lobito Corridor
The Lobito Corridor is positioned as a transformative route for critical raw materials (CRMs) from the Copperbelt of the DRC and Zambia to the port of Lobito in Angola, aimed at supporting the global green energy transition. While it promises significant reductions in transport time and costs, and has attracted up to USD 6 billion in funding from the US, EU, and other institutions, the project faces substantial risks. These include geopolitical competition with China, which dominates regional mining and infrastructure, and concerns over 'modern plundering' where raw materials are exported without local value addition. Furthermore, the project faces sustainability challenges regarding human rights in cobalt mines, land tenure disputes, and the regulation of artisanal and small-scale mining. The re-election of Donald Trump is identified as a major risk factor that could lead to the freezing of US federal and USAID funding, potentially shifting the project's control toward Chinese interests.
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Document type: Research paper
Guide d’Intégration du Genre dans le Processus de Plan National d’Adaptation du Sénégal
The document outlines a methodological framework for gender mainstreaming within Senegal's climate adaptation planning. It identifies specific entry points across 14 process steps—from launch to notification—and provides seven key tools, including gender analysis and gender-responsive budgeting. It highlights the disproportionate impact of climate change on women in Senegal and offers a series of national and international best practices to ensure equitable benefits from adaptation measures.
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Document type: Guide
Opportunities and Challenges for Malawi’s Carbon Markets
Malawi is leveraging carbon markets to attract climate finance, protect ecosystems, and support its 2063 Vision. While the country has historically faced transparency issues and a lack of regulation, the government is now implementing a Carbon Trading Regulatory Framework and the Malawi Carbon Markets Initiative to oversee trade and ensure benefit-sharing. The Kulera Landscape REDD+ Program serves as a model for integrating local communities as partners rather than just beneficiaries. However, significant barriers remain, including technical capacity gaps in government, limited finance for smallholder farmers, and gender inequality in leadership.
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Document type: Briefing
Boom and Bust Coal 2025
In 2024, global coal power capacity increased by 18.8 GW, as 44.1 GW was commissioned and 25.2 GW retired. While the EU27 saw a fourfold increase in retirements and the UK completed its coal phaseout, global progress was offset by significant expansion in China and India. China commissioned 30.5 GW (70% of the global total) and saw 94.5 GW in new construction starts. India recorded its highest-ever level of new coal proposals at 38.4 GW. Conversely, coal proposals in OECD countries dropped from 142 in 2015 to five today, though retirements in these nations must triple to align with the Paris Agreement.
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Document type: Report
The Art of the Deal: How Africa Should Play Its Cards in a New Era of Minerals Diplomacy
The document examines the Trump administration's efforts to secure critical minerals and reduce dependence on China, focusing on proposed deals in Ukraine and the DRC. It argues that these 'minerals-for-security' arrangements face significant feasibility hurdles and risk mirroring neocolonial patterns. The author recommends that African nations adopt 'strategic neutrality' and focus on domestic value addition to maximize their agency in the global energy transition.
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Document type: Briefing
繁荣与衰落2025
In 2024, global coal power saw a contradiction: while new completions reached a 20-year low of 44 GW and the EU increased retirements fourfold, China and India saw record-breaking activity. China's new coal starts reached a ten-year high of 94 GW, driven by approval surges in 2022-2023 and supportive policies like capacity electricity tariffs and long-term power purchase agreements. Conversely, OECD nations have significantly reduced planned projects, though their retirement pace remains too slow to meet Paris Agreement goals.
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Document type: Report
Grandeur et Décadence 2025
In 2024, global coal capacity saw a net increase of 18.8 GW despite the lowest number of new commissions in 20 years, driven primarily by record construction activity in China and India. While the EU27 quadrupled its retirements and the UK eliminated coal entirely, other regions like Russia, Central Asia, and Mongolia continue to expand capacity. The report highlights a stark divide between OECD countries, where projects have plummeted, and Asia, where China and India account for 92% of new projects.
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Document type: Report
Boom and Bust Coal 2025
In 2024, global new coal capacity reached its lowest level in two decades, though China and India continued significant expansions. While the EU27 saw a fourfold increase in retirements and the UK closed its last coal plant, Indonesia experienced a surge in 'captive' coal plants for industrial use, contradicting its stated transition goals.
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Document type: Report
석탄의 경제 대전환 2025
In 2024, global coal capacity saw a net increase of 18.8GW, driven by record construction in China (94GW) and high proposals in India (38GW), despite the lowest new capacity additions in 20 years (44GW). While the EU27 quadrupled its closures and the UK fully phased out coal, Japan and South Korea are pursuing ammonia co-firing to extend the life of coal plants, a strategy the report describes as costly and inconsistent with the Paris Agreement.
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Document type: Report
Ascensão e Queda 2025 Rastreamento global das usinas de carvão
In 2024, the world commissioned the lowest amount of new coal capacity in twenty years (44 GW), though global capacity still saw a net increase of 18.8 GW. While the EU27 quadrupled its retirements and the UK closed its last coal plant, China and India saw record construction starts and proposals, respectively. Outside these two nations, development capacity has fallen for ten consecutive years. In Latin America, new proposals are nearly zero, though Brazil continues to provide significant government subsidies to keep existing plants operational despite the competitiveness of renewables.
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Document type: Report