The Art of the Deal: How Africa Should Play Its Cards in a New Era of Minerals Diplomacy

The document examines the Trump administration's efforts to secure critical minerals and reduce dependence on China, focusing on proposed deals in Ukraine and the DRC. It argues that these 'minerals-for-security' arrangements face significant feasibility hurdles and risk mirroring neocolonial patterns. The author recommends that African nations adopt 'strategic neutrality' and focus on domestic value addition to maximize their agency in the global energy transition.

• The US administration is pursuing critical minerals security to reduce dependence on China, which has established dominance through early investments and agreements, such as the 2007 Sicomines resource-for-infrastructure deal in the DRC.
• A proposed minerals deal between the US and Ukraine, announced on 18 April 2025, aims to recover US military assistance costs through resource exploitation, but faces obstacles including outdated geological data, lack of security guarantees for private investors, and destroyed infrastructure.
• The DRC has proposed a 'minerals-for-security' arrangement with the US to defeat the M23 rebel group and counterbalance Chinese dominance, but the deal is hindered by the DRC's status as a high-risk jurisdiction and the inability of the US government to compel private sector investment.
• Unilateral trade actions, such as US tariffs and Chinese export restrictions, create unexpected economic shocks; for example, US tariffs on vehicle imports may reduce demand for South African Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) despite PGMs being excluded from the tariffs.
• The document argues that 'minerals-for-security' deals in Ukraine and Africa reflect a neocolonial pattern where external powers prioritize resource access over sustainable development or lasting peace.
• To avoid being entangled in great power competition, mineral-rich African countries are encouraged to adopt 'strategic neutrality' and a non-aligned minerals policy, engaging with partners like the EU to diversify supply chains.
• Successful value addition in African mineral sectors requires well-articulated national strategies and the utilization of existing frameworks such as the African Mining Vision and the African Green Minerals Strategy.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2025). The Art of the Deal: How Africa Should Play Its Cards in a New Era of Minerals Diplomacy. https://saiia.org.za/research/the-art-of-the-deal-how-africa-should-play-its-cards-in-a-new-era-of-minerals-diplomacy/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. The Art of the Deal: How Africa Should Play Its Cards in a New Era of Minerals Diplomacy. 2025. https://saiia.org.za/research/the-art-of-the-deal-how-africa-should-play-its-cards-in-a-new-era-of-minerals-diplomacy/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=The Art of the Deal: How Africa Should Play Its Cards in a New Era of Minerals Diplomacy |date=24 April 2025 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/the-art-of-the-deal-how-africa-should-play-its-cards-in-a-new-era-of-minerals-diplomacy/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2025art, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{The Art of the Deal: How Africa Should Play Its Cards in a New Era of Minerals Diplomacy}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2025}, month = apr, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/the-art-of-the-deal-how-africa-should-play-its-cards-in-a-new-era-of-minerals-diplomacy/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }