A Game-Changer in Flux: Recent Developments and Risks in the Lobito Corridor

The Lobito Corridor is positioned as a transformative route for critical raw materials (CRMs) from the Copperbelt of the DRC and Zambia to the port of Lobito in Angola, aimed at supporting the global green energy transition. While it promises significant reductions in transport time and costs, and has attracted up to USD 6 billion in funding from the US, EU, and other institutions, the project faces substantial risks. These include geopolitical competition with China, which dominates regional mining and infrastructure, and concerns over 'modern plundering' where raw materials are exported without local value addition. Furthermore, the project faces sustainability challenges regarding human rights in cobalt mines, land tenure disputes, and the regulation of artisanal and small-scale mining. The re-election of Donald Trump is identified as a major risk factor that could lead to the freezing of US federal and USAID funding, potentially shifting the project's control toward Chinese interests.

• The Lobito Corridor is designed to be the fastest route for transporting critical raw materials (CRMs) from Central Southern Africa to the west coast for export to the US and EU, reducing vulnerability to geopolitical tensions and market fluctuations.
• There is a strategic push to move beyond raw material extraction toward local industrialisation, specifically through the establishment of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) in the DRC's Katanga Province and Zambia's Ndola for electric vehicle (EV) battery value chains.
• Financial commitments for the Corridor's development have reached approximately USD 6 billion, with significant contributions from the US Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), and the World Bank.
• China maintains a dominant position in the region's mineral supply chain, owning or holding stakes in fifteen of the nineteen cobalt mines in the DRC and managing the TAZARA railway via a USD 1.4 billion concession.
• The project faces severe sustainability and human rights risks, particularly regarding the 'egregious' human rights records of DRC cobalt mines and the difficulty of regulating artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) for child labour and toxic exposure.
• The presidency of Donald Trump introduces significant instability, with reports of frozen US funding for feasibility studies and technical services, and potential withdrawals from USAID-funded projects.
• Land acquisition for the Corridor's expansion poses risks to marginalised populations due to the prevalence of informally documented communal land tenure systems.

APA

Chabala, E. D. W., & Hofmeyr, J. (2025). A Game-Changer in Flux: Recent Developments and Risks in the Lobito Corridor. Africa Policy Research Institute. https://afripoli.org/a-game-changer-in-flux-recent-developments-and-risks-in-the-lobito-corridor

Chicago

Chabala, E. D. Wala, and Judy Hofmeyr. A Game-Changer in Flux: Recent Developments and Risks in the Lobito Corridor. Africa Policy Research Institute, 2025. https://afripoli.org/a-game-changer-in-flux-recent-developments-and-risks-in-the-lobito-corridor.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Chabala |first1=E. D. Wala |last2=Hofmeyr |first2=Judy |title=A Game-Changer in Flux: Recent Developments and Risks in the Lobito Corridor |publisher=Africa Policy Research Institute |date=5 May 2025 |url=https://afripoli.org/a-game-changer-in-flux-recent-developments-and-risks-in-the-lobito-corridor |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{chabala2025gamechanger, author = {Chabala, E. D. Wala and Hofmeyr, Judy}, title = {{A Game-Changer in Flux: Recent Developments and Risks in the Lobito Corridor}}, institution = {Africa Policy Research Institute}, year = {2025}, month = may, url = {https://afripoli.org/a-game-changer-in-flux-recent-developments-and-risks-in-the-lobito-corridor}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }