A Game-Changer in Flux: Recent Developments and Risks in the Lobito Corridor

The Lobito Corridor is a strategic transport route designed to move critical raw materials (CRMs) from the Copperbelt of the DRC and Zambia to the Atlantic coast of Angola for export to the US and EU. While it promises economic transformation and local industrialization, the project faces significant geopolitical competition from China, sustainability risks related to human rights and artisanal mining, and financial uncertainty stemming from the US political landscape under the Trump presidency.

• The Lobito Corridor utilizes the Benguela Railway, which was rehabilitated by a Chinese state-run company through a USD 1.83 billion oil-for-infrastructure deal, but saw little use until a concession was granted to the Lobito Atlantic Railway (LAR) consortium (Mota-Engil, Trafigura, and Vecturis).
• The Corridor is intended to facilitate local value addition and industrialization, specifically through the establishment of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) for electric vehicle (EV) battery manufacturing in the Katanga Province of the DRC and Ndola in the Copperbelt Province of Zambia.
• Financial commitments for the Corridor's development have reached up to USD 6 billion, including a USD 500 million commitment from the AFC for the Zambian extension, a USD 600 million commitment from President Biden, and a USD 553 million DFC loan for railway rehabilitation from Luau to Kolwezi.
• The project faces significant sustainability and human rights risks, particularly regarding the 'egregious' human rights records of DRC cobalt mines and the challenges of regulating artisanal and small-scale miners (ASM) who are often linked to child labour and unsafe practices.
• The re-election of Donald Trump has introduced instability into the project, with reports of indefinitely frozen US funding for feasibility studies and technical services, as well as stalled USAID initiatives including a USD 5 million request for a pre-feasibility study.
• China maintains a dominant role in the region's mineral supply chain, owning or holding stakes in fifteen of the DRC's nineteen cobalt mines and managing the TAZARA railway via a USD 1.4 billion concession held by the China Civil Engineering and Construction Corporation (CCECC).

APA

Chabala, E. D. W., & Hofmeyr, J. (2025). A Game-Changer in Flux: Recent Developments and Risks in the Lobito Corridor. Africa Policy Research Institute. https://afripoli.org/a-game-changer-in-flux-recent-developments-and-risks-in-the-lobito-corridor

Chicago

Chabala, E. D. Wala, and Judy Hofmeyr. A Game-Changer in Flux: Recent Developments and Risks in the Lobito Corridor. Africa Policy Research Institute, 2025. https://afripoli.org/a-game-changer-in-flux-recent-developments-and-risks-in-the-lobito-corridor.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Chabala |first1=E. D. Wala |last2=Hofmeyr |first2=Judy |title=A Game-Changer in Flux: Recent Developments and Risks in the Lobito Corridor |publisher=Africa Policy Research Institute |date=5 May 2025 |url=https://afripoli.org/a-game-changer-in-flux-recent-developments-and-risks-in-the-lobito-corridor |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{chabala2025gamechanger, author = {Chabala, E. D. Wala and Hofmeyr, Judy}, title = {{A Game-Changer in Flux: Recent Developments and Risks in the Lobito Corridor}}, institution = {Africa Policy Research Institute}, year = {2025}, month = may, url = {https://afripoli.org/a-game-changer-in-flux-recent-developments-and-risks-in-the-lobito-corridor}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }