The Tumultuous Path Toward EU-China-Africa Trilateral Cooperation on Critical Raw Materials in Africa

This research paper examines the potential for trilateral cooperation between the European Union (EU), China, and African nations within critical raw material (CRM) supply chains. It argues that while the EU seeks to reduce its dependence on China, the deep integration of Chinese firms in midstream and downstream processing, combined with African demands for local value addition, makes a cooperative approach more viable than immediate decoupling. The author proposes a specific model for trilateral cooperation in the Democratic Republic of Congo's cobalt sector to balance the strategic interests of all three parties.

• The European Union is heavily dependent on China for the processing and refining of critical raw materials (CRMs). While China dominates the extraction of only five of the fifty-one CRMs identified by the European Commission, it dominates the processing of twenty-four, including a 100% global share of heavy rare earth elements and 85% of light rare earth elements.
• African nations are increasingly prioritizing local value addition over simple extraction to improve their position in global supply chains. This has led to policies such as Zimbabwe's December 2022 ban on raw lithium exports to force the construction of local processing plants.
• There is a significant disconnect between EU policymakers, who aim to decouple from China via initiatives like the Global Gateway Initiative (GGI), and the EU private sector, which fears that restrictive measures or tariffs on Chinese EVs could trigger a trade war and harm European manufacturers.
• The risk of direct confrontation between the EU and China over CRM extraction in Africa is low because their strategic interests in the region have minimal overlap. For example, while China is present in Guinean bauxite, it is almost nonexistent in the production of other African CRMs supplied to the EU, such as coltan in the DRC or manganese in South Africa.
• The author proposes a trilateral cooperation model in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) for cobalt processing. In this scenario, the EU would provide technical training and financial support, China would provide refining technology through a joint venture with the state-owned Gécamines, and the DRC would develop a local refining industry while securing EU market access.
• The EU is unlikely to meet its 2030 CRM goals for domestic processing (40%) and recycling (25%). Industry experts suggest that producing lithium and other critical metals profitably in Europe and North America is currently unfeasible, making joint ventures with Chinese companies a likely necessity for the future of Europe's EV battery supply chain.

APA

Byamungu, C. G. N. (2025). The Tumultuous Path Toward EU-China-Africa Trilateral Cooperation on Critical Raw Materials in Africa. Africa Policy Research Institute. https://afripoli.org/the-tumultuous-path-toward-eu-china-africa-trilateral-cooperation-on-critical-raw-materials-in-africa

Chicago

Byamungu, Christian Géraud Neema. The Tumultuous Path Toward EU-China-Africa Trilateral Cooperation on Critical Raw Materials in Africa. Africa Policy Research Institute, 2025. https://afripoli.org/the-tumultuous-path-toward-eu-china-africa-trilateral-cooperation-on-critical-raw-materials-in-africa.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Byamungu |first1=Christian Géraud Neema |title=The Tumultuous Path Toward EU-China-Africa Trilateral Cooperation on Critical Raw Materials in Africa |publisher=Africa Policy Research Institute |date=20 May 2025 |url=https://afripoli.org/the-tumultuous-path-toward-eu-china-africa-trilateral-cooperation-on-critical-raw-materials-in-africa |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{byamungu2025tumultuous, author = {Byamungu, Christian Géraud Neema}, title = {{The Tumultuous Path Toward EU-China-Africa Trilateral Cooperation on Critical Raw Materials in Africa}}, institution = {Africa Policy Research Institute}, year = {2025}, month = may, url = {https://afripoli.org/the-tumultuous-path-toward-eu-china-africa-trilateral-cooperation-on-critical-raw-materials-in-africa}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }