Search Climate Insights Directory

The report examines climate variability and projections for Kampala, finding that while annual rainfall has remained stable, temperatures rose by approximately 1ºC between 1979 and 2005. Future projections suggest temperature increases of 1.5ºC (RCP 4.5) to 3ºC (RCP 8.5) by 2095. The study highlights that flooding is the most significant climate impact, exacerbated by the encroachment of human settlements into wetlands and poor urban drainage. Economic estimates indicate that annual flood damages could rise from US$1.3–7.3 million in 2013 to US$33.2–101.7 million by 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario. The cost of climate-proofing buildings and roads between 2015 and 2050 is estimated at US$3.2 billion (RCP 4.5) to US$3.7 billion (RCP 8.5), with residential buildings accounting for 72% of these costs. A cost-benefit analysis of drainage improvements in four catchments showed mixed results, with only two projects yielding a positive net present value. The report recommends revising building codes and the Kampala Physical Development Plan, strengthening the enforcement of Environmental Impact Assessments to protect wetlands, and integrating informality into climate resilience strategies.

The report examines climate change impacts in the Karamoja region of Uganda through case studies of three villages: Oryeotyene North ward (agricultural zone), Nakayot (agro-pastoralist zone), and Lopedot (pastoral zone). It finds that recent droughts and floods have caused production losses of 50% to 100% for many households, with the 2014 drought being particularly severe. The study estimates that without adaptation, future extreme events could lead to significant losses in crop and livestock value by 2050, while long-term temperature and rainfall trends may reduce yields for maize and beans. Livestock is identified as providing greater resilience than crops, as animals can be moved to other regions during crises. Recommended adaptation priorities include improving water availability, capacity building, and crop diversification.

The study examines the vulnerability of Arabica coffee in Bududa, Uganda, to climate variability and projected climate change. It finds that yields have declined due to poor management and extreme weather, including droughts and landslides. The report argues that transitioning from 'Business as Usual' (BAU) to Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA)—defined here as planting shade trees, mulching, and trench construction—significantly improves the internal rate of return (IRR) for farmers, even under future climate scenarios. While costly, the study concludes that a combined programme of CSA and institutional support is economically justified, with a projected IRR of around 36%.

The report assesses climate change risks for the Mpanga River catchment, focusing on the AEMS-Mpanga hydroelectric plant and water supply for domestic, industrial, and agricultural use. It finds that energy production is more vulnerable than water supply, with potential annual welfare costs from electricity shortages reaching US$98 million by 2035-2040. While water shortages in the Rushango area could cause annual losses up to US$188,000, the energy sector's losses dominate. Adaptation measures, such as improved water resource regulation and catchment protection, are deemed cost-effective, requiring only marginal reductions in losses to yield positive returns. However, implementation is hindered by funding gaps, lack of political will, and poor river flow data.

The 11th Annual General Meeting of the Intergovernmental Forum on Mining, Minerals, Metals and Sustainable Development (IGF) emphasized the necessity of integrating social and economic considerations into mine closure planning from the start of a mine's design. The meeting, attended by representatives from 67 countries, highlighted the role of the mining sector in achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and reviewed assessments of the IGF Strategic Framework in the Dominican Republic, Uganda, and Madagascar.

The report assesses three IGF member states—the Dominican Republic, Uganda, and Madagascar—against the six pillars of the Mining Policy Framework (MPF). While these countries show medium readiness in legal environments, financial benefit optimization, and environmental management, they exhibit low readiness in socioeconomic benefit optimization, mine closure, and artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM). A critical systemic barrier across all three nations is the lack of financial and human resources to enforce existing laws.

The report analyzes the political landscape of Tanzania ahead of the 2015 elections, highlighting the challenge to the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party's long-term dominance. It identifies key drivers of potential instability, including the failure to implement a three-tier federal government structure, high youth unemployment, and historical electoral violence in Zanzibar. While the overall risk of widespread insecurity is deemed low, the document warns of localized violence and the risk of radicalization among marginalized youth.

The document examines the challenges and necessity of resolving maritime boundary disputes in Africa, highlighting how these conflicts hinder the 'Blue Economy' and regional security. It discusses the role of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the 2050 Africa’s Integrated Maritime Strategy (2050 AIMS), while recommending a preference for bilateral and regional resolution mechanisms over international courts.

The report identifies barriers to climate finance for MSMEs in developing countries—including weak policies, knowledge gaps, and unsuitable financial products—and proposes solutions such as risk-sharing instruments, matchmaking platforms, and the use of financial intermediaries to deliver funds efficiently.

The report, developed by the Network of Southern Think Tanks (NeST), addresses the lack of a common definition and reporting system for South-South co-operation (SSC). It distinguishes South-South development co-operation (SSDC) as a subset of SSC and argues that it is broader than the OECD-DAC's Official Development Assistance (ODA) definition. The document proposes a comprehensive set of indicators to assess the quality of partnerships across seven dimensions, including national ownership, horizontality, and transparency. It also explores methodological approaches for impact evaluation, suggesting a shift toward 'double-sided' results-based management that recognizes mutual benefits for both provider and recipient. Finally, it outlines a roadmap for NeST to establish a global statistical hub for SSC data in collaboration with UN agencies.

The paper argues that Africa's institutional crisis stems from a mismatch between Western-imported formal institutions and local socio-cultural realities, compounded by a colonial legacy of authoritarianism and neo-patrimonialism. It identifies operational failures such as weak state capacity, toxic leadership, and political apathy. Using Botswana as a positive example, the author suggests that resilient institutions require economic diversification to reduce rent-seeking, the establishment of 'embedded autonomy' for the bureaucracy, and a new generation of ethical, visionary leaders.

The CAMA project combined weADAPT's semantic tagging with Gephi visualization software to analyze the landscape of climate adaptation. By mapping relationships between organizations, keywords, and geography, the project identified 'hot topics', research gaps, and the role of bridging networks like SUMERNET in Southeast Asia. The analysis demonstrated how ICT tools can reveal patterns in complex datasets to inform strategic planning and identify potential collaborations for the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) in Africa and Asia.

The report examines how unregulated migration into Buliisa District has contributed to the deterioration of the Lake Albert fishery. It identifies a cycle where declining fish stocks lead boat owners to rely on low-cost migrant labour to maintain profit margins, which in turn sustains unsustainable levels of fishing effort. The document highlights the failure of Beach Management Units (BMUs) due to ethnic tensions and political corruption, and warns that the fishery is dangerously close to collapse. It recommends curbing migrant settlement expansion, enhancing district-level regulations, diversifying livelihoods through fish farming, and strengthening the protection of fish breeding grounds.

The document examines how economic migration from the Democratic Republic of Congo to Uganda's Buliisa District has led to the overfishing of Lake Albert. It identifies a feedback loop where declining fish stocks increase reliance on cheap migrant labor to maintain profitability, while weak governance and political disincentives prevent the enforcement of fishery regulations. The brief recommends curbing illegal immigration, strengthening the capacity of Beach Management Units (BMUs), promoting livelihood diversification such as fish farming, and protecting critical fish breeding grounds.

The case study analyzes the financial structure of the 250MW Bujagali Hydropower Project in Uganda, which raised nearly $300 million in commercial loans and private equity. It specifically investigates the simultaneous application of a partial risk guarantee (PRG) from the International Development Association (IDA) and political risk insurance (PRI) from the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) to reduce financing costs and attract private capital in a high-risk, low-income environment.

Between August and December 2014, a project funded by FSD Africa and implemented by the Uganda Institute of Banking and Financial Services (UIBFS) aimed to embed the Bank of Uganda's Financial Consumer Protection Guidelines into the operations of 31 supervised financial institutions. The initiative trained 1,038 staff across 575 branches using 12 qualified trainers from a consortium of five local firms. A February 2015 review showed early signs of market-system change, with all five training firms intending to offer FCP modules commercially and some institutions planning to outsource training. The project is presented as a potential model for other sub-Saharan African countries to develop local training markets based on central bank regulations.

The SE4All Finance Committee report identifies a global annual investment need of over $1 trillion to meet 2030 sustainable energy goals, noting a significant funding gap of $654-862 billion. It argues that while capital is abundant, it is not automatically allocated to sustainable energy due to perceived risks, particularly in emerging markets. The report proposes four key investment themes—green bonds, DFI risk-sharing structures, new insurance solutions, and aggregation models—which could collectively catalyze an additional $120 billion in annual investment by 2020. It emphasizes the need for improved project preparation, the use of dedicated project preparation funds, and the strengthening of the governance and creditworthiness of power utilities in developing countries to create a pipeline of bankable projects.

The document outlines five key conclusions for developing countries creating INDCs: treating them as political statements, establishing clear structures, leveraging existing policies, conducting broad consultations, and planning for implementation. It emphasizes the need to balance ambition with feasibility, often through a combination of unilateral and conditional contributions, while aligning climate actions with national development priorities and Sustainable Development Goals.

The document argues that a high-ambition climate agreement, limiting global warming to 2°C, is essential for achieving the SDGs, particularly those related to poverty, inequality, and energy. Using global analysis and case studies from Dominica, Jamaica, Pakistan, and Uganda, the research indicates that a low-ambition agreement would significantly increase poverty levels in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean by 2030.

The Bujagali Hydropower Project in Uganda serves as a case study for the use of combined risk mitigation instruments—specifically the International Development Association's (IDA) partial risk guarantee (PRG) and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency's (MIGA) political risk insurance (PRI)—to attract private capital in high-risk environments. The project mobilized nearly $300 million in commercial loans and private equity, achieving a ratio of almost one U.S. dollar of private capital for every two U.S. dollars of public financing. These instruments enabled commercial banks to offer loans with maturities of 16 years and lower interest rates, which reduced the required initial electricity tariff by between 7% and 60%. The resulting levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was approximately 107 USD/MWh, significantly lower than the cost of the emergency thermal power it replaced. While effective, such complex structures have been underutilized due to high transaction costs and restrictive DFI policies, though recent World Bank Group modernizations aim to expand these tools to smaller-scale renewable energy projects like solar and wind.