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African Risk Capacity
The African Risk Capacity (ARC) operates as a mutual insurance company and agency to help African Union members manage climate shocks through weather-index insurance. Since 2014, ARC Ltd has provided USD 720 million in coverage and paid USD 65 million in claims, primarily targeting the agriculture sector. Participation requires the use of Africa RiskView (ARV) software to define payout thresholds based on rainfall deviation. The program's viability depends on robust subnational climate data, government technical expertise in sovereign insurance, and high-level political awareness.
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Document type: Case study
Long-term FX risk management (TCX)
TCX addresses currency and interest risk in emerging and frontier markets by providing long-term fixed- and inflation-linked cross-currency and interest rate swaps. Since 2013, it has de-risked nearly USD 8.4 billion of external lending across 70 currencies. In 2020, Sub-Saharan Africa was the second most active region, representing 19% of de-risked finance (USD 187 million) across 18 countries. The model relies on high-credit-rated counterparties, such as development finance institutions, to manage credit risk and connect solutions to end-clients. While 70% of 2020 supported financing targeted microfinance and SMEs, infrastructure and renewable energy projects accounted for approximately 6%.
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Document type: Case study
Cooling as a Service (CaaS)
The document describes Cooling as a Service (CaaS) as a pay-per-service model that removes upfront costs for customers by having service providers own and maintain energy-efficient cooling equipment. It highlights the role of sale-leaseback arrangements with banks to scale financing and identifies Nigeria's ColdHubs as a practical application for solar-powered cold storage. The text also notes the importance of legal frameworks, national energy efficiency policies, and the potential for CaaS implementation in 21 countries that prioritized urban planning in their NDCs.
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Document type: Case study
UBS Optimus Foundation Social Success Note
The Social Success Note (SSN) is a 5-year, USD 500,000 working capital loan provided by the UBS Optimus Foundation to the NGO Impact Water to install water purification systems in Ugandan schools. The model utilizes a repayment structure where schools use fuel savings from not boiling water to pay back interest-free loans. The instrument incorporates outcome-based payments from the Rockefeller Foundation and monitoring by Yunus Social Business, aiming to provide 1.4 million children with clean water. While currently implemented in Uganda, Nigeria, and Kenya, the document suggests this concessional instrument is suited for countries with low sovereign credit ratings and limited capital markets.
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Document type: Case study
Komaza Smallholder Forestry Vehicle (SFV)
The Smallholder Forestry Vehicle (SFV) is a financial mechanism that packages tree production partnership contracts from smallholder farmers to attract institutional investors. By separating asset risk from operating company risk, it lowers the cost of capital and reduces transaction costs. As of July 2020, Komaza had partnered with 25,000 farmers in Kenya and planted over 6 million trees, securing a USD 28 million Series B funding round from various impact investors and funds.
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Document type: Case study
Report on the activities of the Secretariat
The GCF Secretariat report for the period ending 31 July 2021 indicates that programming and implementation targets are largely on track, with 76% of the portfolio now under implementation. Key achievements include the approval of USD 1.2 billion in funding at the B.28 meeting and the adoption of the Integrated Results Management Framework (IRMF) at B.29. The Secretariat is working to diversify its private sector portfolio and improve direct access for entities. However, the Simplified Approval Process (SAP) targets are likely to remain unmet due to slow proposal development. The report also highlights the impact of COVID-19 on project expenditure and the ongoing efforts to finalize bilateral privileges and immunities agreements.
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Document type: Report
Status of the GCF pipeline, including the status of Project Preparation Facility requests
As of 31 July 2021, the GCF pipeline includes 89 funding proposals requesting USD 6.4 billion and 350 concept notes requesting USD 15.9 billion. The report details the distribution of these requests by sector, region, and theme, while also tracking the progress of the Simplified Approval Process (SAP) pilot, specific requests for proposals (RFPs) such as REDD-plus and MSME, and the status of 65 active Project Preparation Facility applications.
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Document type: Report
INSTRUMENT ANALYSIS
The report assesses a financial intermediary, Nithio, that employs a Risk Analytics Engine to provide loans to solar distributors in Sub-Saharan Africa. By using AI, demographic, and geospatial data to forecast customer repayment risk, the instrument aims to move beyond the top 10 regional developers and reach smaller, local distributors and last-mile customers. The instrument has raised USD 23 million and targets a deployment of USD 500 million by 2029, with projected environmental impacts including the abatement of 93,000 metric tons of CO2e per year by 2025.
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Document type: Report
COAL POWER FINANCE IN HIGH-IMPACT COUNTRIES
The document analyzes coal finance in 18 high-impact countries (HICs) with significant electricity access gaps. It finds that while global coal investment is declining, finance persists in HICs, largely driven by Chinese state-owned institutions and a few South Asian nations. The report argues that coal is misaligned with Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7) due to long development timelines and high infrastructure costs, contrasting this with the efficiency of distributed renewable energy. It highlights the risk of stranded assets in Bangladesh and Pakistan and the operational hurdles facing coal in Africa, concluding that a shift toward renewables and finance-based carbon accounting is necessary to achieve net-zero goals.
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Document type: Briefing
INSTRUMENT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 2021 PEACE RENEWABLE ENERGY CREDIT (P-REC) AGGREGATION FUND
The P-REC Aggregation Fund monetizes Peace Renewable Energy Credits (P-RECs)—a high-quality type of International Renewable Energy Certificate (I-REC) with peacebuilding co-benefits—to provide upfront capital to renewable energy developers in fragile states. By aggregating these certificates and selling them to impact-seeking corporations (such as RE100 members), the Fund aims to provide developers with approximately 10% of construction costs, thereby unlocking further infrastructure finance. The report models a 13-year proof-of-concept phase with a USD 10.25 million fund size, projecting the generation of 812,116 P-RECs and the avoidance of approximately 658,000 tCO2e of emissions.
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Document type: Report
INSTRUMENT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 2021 SMALLHOLDER RESILIENCE FUND
The Smallholder Resilience Fund (SRF) is a proposed blended finance mechanism and venture studio aimed at bridging the $65 billion financing gap for agricultural SMEs in Sub-Saharan Africa. By employing a 'synchronized investment' strategy—providing equity, debt, and working capital across entire value chains—the SRF seeks to de-risk investments and enable smallholders to diversify into climate-smart, high-value crops. The initiative, proposed by One Acre Fund, will pilot in Rwanda's avocado value chain with a $4.2 million grant requirement to catalyze an estimated $50-100 million in total capital over ten years, aiming to increase the annual income of over 100,000 farmers by approximately 15%.
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Document type: Report
Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040
The report assesses the development prospects of the Horn of Africa, highlighting how governance failure, insecurity, and climate-driven food instability hinder progress. It uses the International Futures platform to project that without intervention, no country in the region will eliminate extreme poverty by 2030. The analysis identifies a critical 'youth bulge' and severe infrastructure deficits in energy, transport, and water. To counter these trends, the authors propose an 'Integrated Development Push' scenario combining improved governance, agricultural modernisation, and investments in human capital and basic infrastructure to boost regional GDP and reduce poverty by 2040.
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Document type: Report
International Involvement in the African Nuclear Market
The document examines the viability of nuclear energy in Africa, noting that the continent provides 14% of global uranium supply. It identifies Russia and China as leading international vendors due to their state-owned models and willingness to provide financing. The paper highlights significant barriers to deployment, including high costs, corruption, unstable electrical grids, and a lack of local expertise. It also discusses the potential of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) to mitigate some of these infrastructure and financial challenges.
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Document type: Research paper
Mapping the Future of Africa–China Relations: Insights from West Africa
The document analyzes the multidimensional relationship between China and West Africa, highlighting significant asymmetries in trade and foreign direct investment. It identifies health cooperation, economic recovery, regional integration, and debt restructuring as primary priorities for the FOCAC 8 summit. The author argues that West African nations should move beyond bilateral opportunism toward a strategic regional approach led by ECOWAS, incorporating non-state actors and civil society to address concerns over transparency, debt sustainability, and environmental impacts.
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Document type: Research paper
COAL POWER FINANCE IN HIGH-IMPACT COUNTRIES
The document analyzes coal finance in 18 high-impact countries (HICs) in South Asia and Africa, highlighting that while global trends shift toward renewables, significant coal investment persists, largely driven by Chinese state-owned institutions. It argues that coal is an inefficient path to universal electricity access compared to distributed renewables and warns of stranded asset risks, citing overcapacity in Bangladesh and Pakistan.
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Document type: Briefing
Financial Inclusion for Refugees (FI4R) Results of Round 3 Diaries
The report finds that COVID-19 significantly reduced refugee incomes from employment and self-employment, leaving non-employment income as the primary source of support. While there is openness to digitizing savings groups to improve speed and safety, significant barriers remain, including low smartphone ownership, high transaction costs, and fears that digital tools may undermine group cohesion and meeting attendance.
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Document type: Report
Are African oil and gas producers prepared for the energy transition?
The document warns that African oil and gas producing countries risk committing public funds to stranded assets by basing investment decisions on current price trends rather than energy transition scenarios. It highlights the vulnerability of National Oil Companies (NOCs) and the potential for revenue overestimation, specifically citing risks in countries like Angola, Mozambique, and Senegal. The author advocates for the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) to mandate the disclosure of project viability data and for governments to diversify their economies.
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Document type: Report
Universal Basic Income Guarantee: Financing options analysis
The report evaluates nine financing options for a Universal Basic Income Guarantee (UBIG) in South Africa, focusing on progressive tax measures. Key proposals include a Social Security Tax, a Resource Rent Tax, and the selective removal of tax credits for high earners. The analysis finds that a UBIG aligned with the Food Poverty Line (FPL) for 60% of the population could be fully financed by these measures. The report also models the impact of different implementation speeds on South Africa's national debt and primary balance, suggesting that the FPL grant is the most fiscally feasible over the medium term.
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Document type: Report
FINANCING OPTIONS FOR A UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME GUARANTEE IN SOUTH AFRICA
The document proposes a suite of financing mechanisms to fund a Universal Basic Income Guarantee (UBIG) in South Africa, focusing on progressive taxation and the reduction of government waste. Key proposals include a ring-fenced Social Security Tax, a Resource Rent Tax on extractive industries, and a wealth tax for the top 1% of the population. The brief argues that many UBIG scenarios, particularly those aligned with national poverty lines, are immediately affordable without borrowing if these revenue-generating measures and VAT recoupments are implemented.
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Document type: Policy brief
A Sustainable Asset Valuation of the Kakono Hydropower Plant in Tanzania
The assessment finds that the Kakono Hydropower Plant (HPP) is the most sustainable and cost-effective energy option for northwestern Tanzania, demonstrating high climate resilience and the highest net societal benefits. Compared to a utility-scale diesel plant and a gas-solar PV portfolio, the HPP offers the lowest levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and the most attractive net present value (NPV), particularly when environmental and social externalities are internalized. While the HPP causes some habitat loss and carbon emissions during construction and reservoir operation, these are offset by significant employment generation and the avoidance of high fossil fuel emissions. The report concludes that the HPP is a viable investment for multilateral banks like the African Development Bank, provided that mitigation strategies for GHG emissions and habitat loss are implemented.
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Document type: Report