Mapping the Future of Africa–China Relations: Insights from West Africa

The document analyzes the multidimensional relationship between China and West Africa, highlighting significant asymmetries in trade and foreign direct investment. It identifies health cooperation, economic recovery, regional integration, and debt restructuring as primary priorities for the FOCAC 8 summit. The author argues that West African nations should move beyond bilateral opportunism toward a strategic regional approach led by ECOWAS, incorporating non-state actors and civil society to address concerns over transparency, debt sustainability, and environmental impacts.

• Trade between West Africa and China is highly asymmetric; in 2019, West African countries imported $37 billion from China while exporting only $9.63 billion to it. Nigeria and Ghana are the region's primary exporters to China, whereas francophone nations like Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, and Niger export significantly less.
• Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in West Africa is concentrated in construction and mining, with Nigeria and Ghana receiving the highest flows ($2.65 billion and $1.55 billion respectively between 2003 and 2019).
• Health cooperation is a strategic priority for FOCAC 8, evolving from 'mask diplomacy' to vaccine distribution and the pursuit of local manufacturing capacity. While China has donated vaccines, a larger volume has been sold to African, Asian, and Latin American countries, indicating that vaccine diplomacy is linked to strategic and business interests.
• China is Africa's largest bilateral creditor, and several West African nations, including Ghana, Nigeria, and Côte dIvoire, have high levels of indebtedness. There is growing concern among African citizens and policymakers regarding loan transparency and the risk of debt distress, with 58% of aware citizens in an 18-country survey believing their governments borrowed too much from China.
• The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is viewed as a tool for economic recovery and regional integration, but the influx of cheap Chinese goods, such as textiles in West Africa, creates trade tensions and negatively impacts local producers.
• The author recommends that West African nations shift from bilateral 'opportunism' to a strategic regional approach led by ECOWAS to better negotiate with China, enhance preferential market access, and set norms for loan transparency.

APA

SOULÉ, F. (2021). Mapping the Future of Africa–China Relations: Insights from West Africa. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Occasional-Paper-330-soule.pdf

Chicago

SOULÉ, FOLASHADÉ. Mapping the Future of Africa–China Relations: Insights from West Africa. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2021. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Occasional-Paper-330-soule.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=SOULÉ |first1=FOLASHADÉ |title=Mapping the Future of Africa–China Relations: Insights from West Africa |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=September 2021 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Occasional-Paper-330-soule.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{soul2021mapping, author = {SOULÉ, FOLASHADÉ}, title = {{Mapping the Future of Africa–China Relations: Insights from West Africa}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2021}, month = sep, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Occasional-Paper-330-soule.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }