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The Adaptation Fund lacks a formal, transparent methodology for defining and measuring 'particular vulnerability,' leading to an ad hoc allocation process. An analysis of 48 proposals (25 approved) shows that funding has reached a wide range of socio-economic conditions and HDI levels, with no clear pattern correlating approvals to national vulnerability indices. While the fund prioritizes concrete adaptation measures in agriculture and water, the absence of standardized vulnerability criteria undermines the ability to systematically compare project merits or ensure that the most vulnerable populations are prioritized.

The document analyzes Afghanistan's role within the Regional Security Complex (RSC) framework, examining its relationship with South Asia, the Persian Gulf, and Central Asia. It argues that neighboring states' engagement in Afghanistan is driven by internal regional conflicts—such as the India-Pakistan rivalry—rather than Afghan-centric issues. Consequently, the author suggests that a unilateral non-aggression commitment by Afghanistan is a more viable strategy for stability than the integrated regional approaches often proposed by international policymakers.

The report argues that agricultural and marine resources, often dismissed as secondary in conflict analysis, can fuel violence through the taxation of trade, the destabilizing effect of price volatility, and competition over essential inputs like land and water. Through case studies in Côte d’Ivoire, Somalia, and Central Asia, it demonstrates how rebel groups and warlords extract funds from cocoa, bananas, and fisheries. It also highlights how commodity dependence and price shocks undermine political stability and how the pursuit of thirsty crops like cotton exacerbates interstate tensions over water sharing. The authors provide fourteen policy recommendations, including the use of UN sanctions on agricultural resources and increased transparency in trade.

India and China are experiencing rapid economic growth and a corresponding surge in energy consumption, leading to an increasing reliance on imported oil, primarily from the Persian Gulf. Both nations are pursuing similar strategies to mitigate this vulnerability: diversifying import sources, acquiring equity oil through overseas investments, building strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs), and shifting toward natural gas and nuclear power. While there are efforts toward Sino-Indian energy cooperation, such as joint bids for oilfields in third countries, competition remains high, particularly in contested areas like Burma. The report outlines three future scenarios: 'Increased cooperation,' 'Conflict in East Asia' (centered on Taiwan and Japan), and 'The Middle East explodes' (a full-scale resource war). It recommends that Norway support energy efficiency, clean coal and gas technologies, and the inclusion of China and India in the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The report provides a geospatial analysis of the world's drylands, which cover approximately 40 percent of the global land area and support over two billion people. It evaluates the provision of ecosystem services including forage for livestock, food production, biodiversity conservation, freshwater, carbon storage, and energy. The analysis highlights that while drylands are often perceived as unproductive, they are critical for human survival, though they face significant threats from soil degradation, water scarcity, and human activities such as overgrazing and urbanization.

The briefing argues that establishing a functioning state in Afghanistan requires a new power-sharing formula that avoids reliance on military strength, a long-term commitment from neighboring states to prioritize Afghan stability over regional rivalries, and a shift in international aid from short-term emergency relief to long-term peacebuilding and capacity-building. It warns that any new government must be developed from within to be legitimate, though it suggests an international presence—potentially involving the UN and the Organization of the Islamic Conference—may be necessary to support the transition.

The document highlights that just 1% of Turkmenistan's estimated superhot rock geothermal resources could provide 105 GW of energy capacity, far exceeding the country's 2021 electricity consumption of 22,533 GWh. This resource could theoretically replace all coal and gas used for electricity production in Turkmenistan, reducing emissions by approximately 16 megatonnes of CO2eq, which represents 58% of the country's Nationally Determined Contribution goal for 2030. Superhot rock geothermal is presented as a high-density energy source requiring only 12 km² of land per 1 GW, significantly less than solar (180 km²) or offshore wind (520 km²).

The Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL) argues that the BTC Pipeline Project's legal framework undermines the rule of law and sovereign regulatory power in Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. CIEL identifies significant deficiencies in the project's approach to climate change, public consultation, and compensation for affected populations, particularly in Turkey. The document further contends that the project fails to demonstrate a measurable contribution to poverty alleviation, potentially violating IFC mandates.

The document provides a framework for governments to assess how climate policies affect national budgets, focusing on the production side of fossil fuels and infrastructure. It details a five-step methodology: establishing a base case, developing scenarios, assessing policy impacts, allocating value between consumers and producers, and splitting value between government and commercial entities. The report applies this to Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Egypt, highlighting that oil assets are most sensitive to global demand shifts, while coal and gas are more influenced by regional dynamics and infrastructure. It recommends that governments reduce upfront capital commitments, adapt tax regimes, and diversify into low-carbon technologies to mitigate the risk of stranded assets.

The document provides a geographic overview of the top 15 cotton-producing countries as of 2016, categorizing them by production levels and their status regarding Voluntary Sustainability Standards (VSS) compliance.

The document presents a statistical overview of Russia's demographics, economy, and military capabilities, alongside a strategic analysis of its 'Positive' achievements—such as energy sector consolidation and the halting of military decay—and 'Negative' challenges, including corruption and the expansion of NATO and the EU into Ukraine.

The report estimates that a reunification of Cyprus would provide Turkey with an annual peace dividend of EUR 17.4 billion (3.5% of 2009 GDP), comprising EUR 5.1 billion in savings and EUR 12.3 billion in additional export revenue. Key gains for Turkey include the potential for EUR 7 billion from financial and business services, EUR 1.7 billion from transport, and EUR 1.6 billion from tourism. Additionally, Turkey could see foreign direct investment (FDI) rise to EUR 33 billion per year. Greece is projected to benefit from EUR 2.3 billion in annual military savings, EUR 19.8 billion in FDI, and various gains in tourism and energy transit. The document highlights energy as the greatest opportunity, noting that a settlement would unblock Turkey's EU accession energy chapter and facilitate projects like Blue Stream-2.

The document examines the shift in Russian foreign policy under President Dmitry Medvedev, analyzing the tension between his proposed 'modernization' and the 'hard power' approach demonstrated during the 2008 conflict in Georgia. It explores Russia's strategic interests in the 'near abroad' (CIS), its pursuit of a multipolar world order to counter US unilateralism, and its complex relationships with the EU, China, and the US. Key themes include the use of energy as a political tool, the militarization of the Arctic, and the role of international law and institutions like the OSCE and Council of Europe.

The research examines the Central Asia Regional Security Complex (CA RSC), comprising Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. It argues that while these states share concerns regarding trans-border terrorism, extremism, and narcotics trafficking from Afghanistan, their primary security drivers are internal rivalries and the strategic balancing of global powers—specifically Russia, China, and the USA. The author contends that the 'Heart of Asia' concept fails because it underestimates inter-state non-cooperation and ignores the distinct security dynamics of sub-regions. Central Asian states employ a 'multi-vector' foreign policy to maximize benefits from competing external interests while guarding their sovereignty. Consequently, their engagement with Afghanistan is fragmented and unilateral, focused on extracting economic rent or preventing security 'bleed-out' rather than a unified regional strategy.

The research examines the link between water scarcity and intrastate conflict, arguing that the relationship is not deterministic but is mediated by domestic political institutions. Using a simultaneous equations model for 98 countries (1981–2000), the authors find that while water scarcity does not directly increase the probability of conflict, it does negatively impact the likelihood of democratic institutions emerging. Crucially, the study finds that democratic regimes are more effective at mitigating the risk of conflict in water-scarce conditions. The authors suggest an 'ecological trap' where water scarcity promotes autocracy, which in turn fails to manage resources effectively, potentially leading to a cycle of scarcity, autocracy, and conflict.

The report argues that transitioning from national energy self-sufficiency to an integrated regional power system in Central Asia would enhance energy security, lower electricity production costs, and accelerate decarbonization. Modelling indicates that 'Unlimited transmission' could reduce electricity production emissions intensity by approximately 3% and save 1.4 billion USD in annual costs by 2050 compared to self-sufficiency. The document highlights the potential for Kazakhstan to become a hydrogen hub (primarily via 'blue' hydrogen) and for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to provide baseload hydropower. To achieve this, the report proposes a roadmap integrating technical, political, financial, and organizational considerations.

This policy brief by the Stockholm Environment Institute describes the application of an integrated water-energy-food-ecosystems (WEFE) nexus modeling approach (LEAP-WEAP-MACRO) to the Syr Darya River Basin. It argues that integrated modeling provides more realistic results than siloed approaches and demonstrates that international cooperation among Central Asian countries can increase water availability, boost agricultural production, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions compared to business-as-usual scenarios.