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The document highlights the risks of planning water and energy sectors in isolation, particularly as climate change increases water stress and impacts hydropower. It proposes the combined use of the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) and Water Evaluation and Adaptation Planning (WEAP) tools, alongside macroeconomic modelling, to identify trade-offs and synergies. Case studies in Rwanda and Central Asia illustrate how this integrated approach can prevent GDP losses and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The brief further suggests that such integration helps countries align their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) to optimize limited climate finance.

This policy brief by the Stockholm Environment Institute describes the application of an integrated water-energy-food-ecosystems (WEFE) nexus modeling approach (LEAP-WEAP-MACRO) to the Syr Darya River Basin. It argues that integrated modeling provides more realistic results than siloed approaches and demonstrates that international cooperation among Central Asian countries can increase water availability, boost agricultural production, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions compared to business-as-usual scenarios.

The report details the creation of a comprehensive modeling framework for the Syr Darya River Basin, integrating the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) platform, the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) with the Next Energy Modeling system for Optimization (NEMO), and a macroeconomic model (Macro). This integrated approach allows for the simulation of complex interdependencies between water availability, energy production, and economic outcomes across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The study evaluates six thematic narratives—ranging from business-as-usual to regional cooperation and ecosystem restoration—under four climate projections (Historical, Dry, Average, and Wet). Key findings indicate that pursuing isolated national interests increases water stress, while regional cooperation and efficiency policies significantly reduce unmet irrigation demands, lower greenhouse gas emissions, and boost agricultural value added and GDP.