Developing a Comprehensive Water-Energy Model for the Syr Darya River Basin Using WEAP and LEAP Modeling Software

The report details the creation of a comprehensive modeling framework for the Syr Darya River Basin, integrating the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) platform, the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) with the Next Energy Modeling system for Optimization (NEMO), and a macroeconomic model (Macro). This integrated approach allows for the simulation of complex interdependencies between water availability, energy production, and economic outcomes across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The study evaluates six thematic narratives—ranging from business-as-usual to regional cooperation and ecosystem restoration—under four climate projections (Historical, Dry, Average, and Wet). Key findings indicate that pursuing isolated national interests increases water stress, while regional cooperation and efficiency policies significantly reduce unmet irrigation demands, lower greenhouse gas emissions, and boost agricultural value added and GDP.

• Pursuing national policies in isolation tends to increase unmet water demand, particularly for irrigation, under both dry and wet climate projections.
• The implementation of water and energy efficiency policies combined with increased regional cooperation can reduce unmet water requirements by approximately 30% across both climate projections.
• Regional cooperation measures could avoid approximately 20% of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions across Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan by 2050 compared to nationally-focused efficiency measures.
• In the Kyrgyz Republic, national plans for increased agricultural production and improved water availability resulted in an increase in annual agricultural value added of over 3% in both dry and wet climate projections, contributing to a 0.5% overall increase in GDP.
• Integrating WEAP, LEAP, and Macro models provides more realistic results than siloed modeling; for example, in the Kyrgyz Republic under the cooperation narrative, integrated modeling showed hydropower generation increasing by up to 21% by 2050 compared to using LEAP alone.
• The integrated model demonstrates a 20% increase in water availability compared to using the WEAP model alone, due to more nuanced hydropower dispatch simulated via LEAP.
• Climate projections for the period 2030 to 2050 indicate that average annual temperatures in the Syr Darya basin are expected to increase by 1 to 2.5 degrees Celsius over the historical average of 14.1 degrees Celsius.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (n.d.). Developing a Comprehensive Water-Energy Model for the Syr Darya River Basin Using WEAP and LEAP Modeling Software. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/wave.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Developing a Comprehensive Water-Energy Model for the Syr Darya River Basin Using WEAP and LEAP Modeling Software. n.d. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/wave.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Developing a Comprehensive Water-Energy Model for the Syr Darya River Basin Using WEAP and LEAP Modeling Software |url=https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/wave.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitutenddeveloping, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Developing a Comprehensive Water-Energy Model for the Syr Darya River Basin Using WEAP and LEAP Modeling Software}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, url = {https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/wave.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }