Developing a Comprehensive Water-Energy Model for the Syr Darya River Basin Using WEAP and LEAP Modeling Software

This report describes the development and application of an integrated water-energy-food-ecosystems (WEFE) and macroeconomic model for the Syr Darya River Basin. The model combines three software platforms—Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP), Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) with Next Energy Modeling system for Optimization (NEMO), and a macroeconomic model (Macro)—to simulate the interdependencies between water availability, energy production, and economic growth across Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan from 2010 to 2050.

• The integrated modeling approach demonstrates that pursuing national interests in isolation increases water stress and unmet water demand, particularly for irrigation, under both dry and wet climate projections.
• Implementing water and energy efficiency policies combined with regional cooperation can substantially reduce unmet water requirements by approximately 30% and lower greenhouse gas emissions.
• Regional cooperation is projected to avoid approximately 20% of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions across Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan by 2050 compared to nationally-focused measures.
• Integrated modeling provides more realistic results than siloed models; for example, in the Kyrgyz Republic, the integrated approach shows hydropower generation increasing by up to 21% by 2050 compared to using LEAP alone.
• The integrated model indicates a 20% increase in water availability compared to using the WEAP model alone, due to more nuanced hydropower dispatch simulated via LEAP.
• Regional cooperation (Scenario S5) is projected to boost agricultural value added by over 3% in the Kyrgyz Republic and approximately 1% in Kazakhstan, with a slight overall increase in GDP for the Kyrgyz Republic.
• The model utilizes four climate projections based on CMIP6 data: Historical (no change), Dry (hotter and drier), Average (hotter, precipitation stable), and Wet (hotter and wetter).

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (n.d.). Developing a Comprehensive Water-Energy Model for the Syr Darya River Basin Using WEAP and LEAP Modeling Software. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/wave.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Developing a Comprehensive Water-Energy Model for the Syr Darya River Basin Using WEAP and LEAP Modeling Software. n.d. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/wave.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Developing a Comprehensive Water-Energy Model for the Syr Darya River Basin Using WEAP and LEAP Modeling Software |url=https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/wave.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitutenddeveloping, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Developing a Comprehensive Water-Energy Model for the Syr Darya River Basin Using WEAP and LEAP Modeling Software}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, url = {https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/wave.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }