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The November 2024 update reveals a three-year stagnation in global warming projections, with current policies setting the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming by 2100. While renewable energy and electric vehicle deployment have seen record growth, these gains are offset by all-time high fossil fuel subsidies and increased funding for fossil fuel projects. The report warns that without a substantial increase in the ambition of 2030 and 2035 targets, the 1.5°C limit will likely be breached in the early 2030s, leading to a multidecadal overshoot.

The report identifies a significant gap in industry-specific, science-based targets for ocean health, noting that most existing frameworks focus on 'avoidance' and 'reduction' while neglecting restoration and regeneration. Through an analysis of 25 frameworks, it highlights that sector-specific pressures—such as land reclamation in coastal development and ship strikes in shipping—are largely unaddressed. The document recommends that SBTN focus on three pillars: Capabilities (standardizing pressure measurement), Collaboration (aligning with TNFD and EU CSRD), and Communication (providing tailored toolkits). It emphasizes the need for quantitative, time-bound KPIs to replace binary assessments and calls for the integration of socio-economic factors, including Indigenous rights and community resilience, into marine conservation strategies.

The WTO's moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions, first established in 1998, has been extended until March 31, 2026, or the 14th Ministerial Conference. The authors argue that the end of this moratorium would likely lead to a fragmented 'patchwork' of regional and bilateral trade agreements, increasing costs for consumers and businesses. Developing countries have opposed the moratorium to reclaim 'policy space' and recover lost customs revenues, which one 2020 study estimated at USD 10 billion annually for developing nations, though OECD estimates are significantly lower. The document highlights a critical lack of a common definition for 'electronic transmissions,' which complicates the implementation of any replacement regulatory framework.

The report finds a positive trend in European pension funds' commitment to sustainable investing, with significant growth in the adoption of mitigation targets and climate risk management. However, a persistent gap remains between these commitments and actual real-economy impact, as pension funds rarely invest directly in projects and often hold fragmented indirect ownership. The analysis highlights that larger funds, those in net-zero coalitions, and funds in countries with strong regulatory frameworks—such as the Nordic countries, the Netherlands, and France—are leading the transition. Key challenges include the gap between asset ownership and management, the difficulty of transitioning passive investments, and limited capital flow to emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs).

Since 2023, Chinese firms have committed over US$100 billion in outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) across at least 130 major cleantech transactions, spanning solar, wind, batteries, and new energy vehicles (NEVs). This 'going global' strategy is driven by domestic overcapacity, which has caused solar module prices to drop 60% and battery prices 50% year-on-year, and a need to circumvent trade barriers from the US and EU. The report highlights China's dominance in the global battery supply chain, where it holds over 80% of manufacturing capacity, and its expansion into markets like Morocco, Brazil, and Thailand. For Australia, the report notes that Chinese OFDI reached a multi-decade low of US$613 million in 2023, and argues that Australia should clarify its foreign investment rules to attract Chinese private capital for onshore value-adding in critical minerals and renewable energy infrastructure.

The WTO's moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions, first established in 1998, is likely to end by March 2026. This expiration could lead to a fragmented global regulatory landscape, increased costs for consumers and businesses, and a shift toward regional trade agreements. While developing nations argue that the moratorium limits their policy space and public revenue, the authors suggest that the lack of a common definition for 'electronic transmissions' complicates the transition and that a multilateral agreement remains the most stable path for digital trade.

The WTO's moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions, in place since 1998, is likely to end by March 2026 due to opposition from developing countries seeking to recover lost tax revenues and maintain policy space for national industrialization. The authors argue that the end of this global rule would lead to a fragmented 'mosaic' of regional and bilateral trade agreements with inconsistent definitions of 'electronic transmissions,' potentially increasing costs for consumers and creating barriers for digital service providers. While some members argue that the moratorium hinders their ability to support domestic digital industries, the authors suggest that alternative taxes, such as VAT, could generate revenue without the trade-distorting effects of customs duties. The document highlights a critical lack of a common definition for 'electronic transmissions,' which has led to divergent revenue loss estimates—ranging from 280 million USD globally (OECD) to nearly 10 billion USD annually for developing countries (UNCTAD).

The world is on track to install 593 GW of solar power in 2024, a 29% increase over 2023. China remains the dominant market, projected to account for 56% of global additions. Growth is widespread, with significant surges in India and the US, and emerging markets like Pakistan and Saudi Arabia showing rapid increases in solar panel imports. This trajectory puts the goal of tripling renewable power capacity by 2030 within reach, provided grid and storage constraints are addressed.

The document analyzes the 'stabilized text' of the JSI e-commerce agreement, which aims to establish a global benchmark for digital trade rules. It details enabling regulatory obligations, a moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions, and specific flexibilities for developing countries and least developed countries (LDCs), such as extended implementation timelines and technical assistance. The author highlights significant challenges, including the low participation of LDCs and African nations, disagreements among key members like the US and China, and a broader legal debate over whether plurilateral agreements can be formally incorporated into the WTO's consensus-based treaty system.

The report highlights that China's steel sector requires at least CNY1.6tn (USD220bn) in fixed-asset investment for decarbonisation by 2050. While the labelled bond and loan markets have the capacity to provide this capital, current issuance from the steel sector is minimal, representing only 0.1% of the Chinese labelled bond market. The document recommends aligning provincial transition finance guidelines with national and international standards, encouraging the use of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission-reduction targets in sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs), and implementing green public procurement to stimulate demand for low-carbon steel.

The report analyzes the roles of various public development banks (PDBs) in climate adaptation, identifying significant gaps in collaboration between international multilateral development banks (MDBs) and national development banks (NDBs). It highlights barriers such as misaligned project ticket sizes, lack of shared adaptation taxonomies, and local currency risks. To address these, the report recommends developing complementary taxonomies, utilizing country platforms and regional hubs, enhancing capacity-building, and leveraging blended finance to de-risk adaptation investments.

The report identifies the intersection of food insecurity and climate change as a critical threat to US national security, citing risks such as political instability, the weaponization of food by adversaries, and geopolitical competition over agricultural technology and fish stocks. It highlights gaps in the US policy landscape, including institutional silos and underfunding of agricultural R&D. To address these, the authors propose 'The Feeding Resilience Plan,' which recommends a new Food Security Executive Order, a standing National Security Council process, expanded forecasting via FEWSNET, increased investment in climate-resilient agricultural innovation, and diplomatic engagement to oppose food weaponization and cooperate with partners and competitors like China.

The report calculates that the planned expansion of the Afşin Elbistan A Thermal Power Plant will cause significant public health damage and economic losses. In the first year of operation (2028), the project is estimated to cause 42 deaths and cost the economy 58.1 million USD. Over a 35-year operational period (2028-2063), the cumulative impact is projected to be 2,268 deaths and an economic cost of 2.6 billion USD, which the authors equate to the cost of building 29 hospitals with 500 beds each.

The document examines the diplomatic, military, and economic ties between Egypt and Russia over the last decade, highlighting a shared preference for authoritarian stability and a mutual desire to balance Western influence. While cooperation has expanded in arms procurement and nuclear energy, the author contends the relationship remains transactional and flexible, as Egypt employs a strategy of diplomatic hedging to maintain ties with both Moscow and the West.

National wind targets from 70 countries and the EU aim for a collective capacity of 2,157 GW by 2030, which represents a 2.4x increase from 2022 but falls short of the 2,742 GW required for a tripling. While global forecasts suggest these targets are achievable in aggregate, this is primarily due to China's expected over-performance; most other countries are projected to fall short of their own targets. The report highlights significant implementation gaps in the US and India, while noting that Brazil and Türkiye are likely to exceed their targets due to low initial ambition.

The report identifies six distinct climate audiences—Alarmed, Concerned, Cautious, Disengaged, Doubtful, and Dismissive—across a global survey of 139,136 Facebook users. It finds that the 'Alarmed' group is the largest in approximately 77% of the surveyed areas, with the highest concentrations in Puerto Rico and other Latin American countries. Conversely, the 'Doubtful' and 'Dismissive' groups are most prevalent in the Netherlands, Norway, and Libya. The analysis highlights a correlation between lower per-capita emissions and income and higher levels of climate alarm, while noting that the United States has a lower proportion of 'Alarmed' respondents compared to other top carbon-emitting nations.

The policy brief examines the risk of an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon, highlighting the potential for regional escalation involving Iran and its allies, and the subsequent impact on the EU. It criticizes the EU's current approach to Lebanon, which it claims prioritizes migration control over structural stability, and calls for a shift toward comprehensive economic support, targeted sanctions against corrupt elites, and active diplomacy to avoid a humanitarian and energy catastrophe.

The 2024 Global Steel Plant Tracker and Global Blast Furnace Tracker data show a growing momentum toward electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking, with 49% of capacity under development using this route. However, significant carbon lock-in risks persist as 308 mtpa of new coal-based blast furnace capacity is under development, primarily in Asia. India has surpassed China as the top overall steel developer, though China remains the largest operator of emissions-intensive capacity. While direct reduced iron (DRI) capacity is increasing, its climate impact depends on the transition to green hydrogen reducing agents, as much current capacity relies on methane or coal.

The document analyzes the challenges facing humanitarian disarmament in a contemporary environment characterized by rising global antagonism, a redistribution of power toward the Global South, and the decline of democratic space for civil society. It argues that the success of past treaties, such as the Mine Ban Convention, is threatened by competing global priorities like climate change and the erosion of trust between major powers. The authors highlight the difficulty of building cross-regional coalitions and the risks faced by civil society organizations (CSOs) due to government restrictions and stigmatization. To remain effective, the brief suggests that disarmament efforts must become more inclusive, diversify funding sources, and shift communication strategies toward the self-interest of states rather than relying solely on moral arguments.

The report finds that many of the world's largest fossil fuel producers fail to address the transition of the fossil fuel sector in their climate plans. It argues that third-generation NDCs must include specific targets, pathways, and policies to wind down production in alignment with the COP 28 agreement to ensure a just and orderly transition.