Wind targets are achievable but fall short of a tripling

National wind targets from 70 countries and the EU aim for a collective capacity of 2,157 GW by 2030, which represents a 2.4x increase from 2022 but falls short of the 2,742 GW required for a tripling. While global forecasts suggest these targets are achievable in aggregate, this is primarily due to China's expected over-performance; most other countries are projected to fall short of their own targets. The report highlights significant implementation gaps in the US and India, while noting that Brazil and Türkiye are likely to exceed their targets due to low initial ambition.

• Current national wind targets for 70 countries and the EU total 2,157 GW for 2030, which is a 2.4x increase from the 901 GW recorded in 2022, but leaves a gap of 585 GW to reach the tripling goal of 2,742 GW.
• Global forecasts from the IEA, BNEF, and GWEC suggest that the sum of national wind targets is achievable, largely because China is forecast to install over 50% of global wind additions between 2024 and 2030 and is expected to triple its own capacity by 2030.
• Excluding China, the rest of the world is projected to under-deliver on national targets, with BNEF forecasting a capacity of 1,058 GW by 2030, significantly lower than the 1,357 GW identified in Ember's assessment of national targets.
• The US has the largest gap between forecast installations and its 2030 target of 369 GW; the IEA forecasts annual additions of 16.5 GW (2024-2028), which is roughly half of the 32 GW per year required to meet the target.
• India's wind target is 110 GW by 2030, requiring 9.3 GW of annual additions from 2024 to 2030, but current forecasts from the IEA, BNEF, and GWEC suggest annual additions will only be around 4.6 to 5 GW.
• Brazil and Türkiye are forecast to exceed their 2030 wind targets because their targets lack sufficient ambition relative to current build rates; Brazil added a record 5 GW of wind in 2023, far exceeding its required annual addition of 0.3 GW.
• Offshore wind targets for 19 countries total 177 GW, but forecasts suggest the actual capacity will be higher, with the IEA predicting 218 GW by 2028 and GWEC predicting 298 GW by 2030.

APA

Altieri, K., Jones, D., & Rangelova, K. (2024). Wind targets are achievable but fall short of a tripling. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/wind-targets-are-achievable-but-fall-short-of-a-tripling

Chicago

Altieri, Katye, Dave Jones, and Kostanza Rangelova. Wind targets are achievable but fall short of a tripling. Ember, 2024. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/wind-targets-are-achievable-but-fall-short-of-a-tripling.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Altieri |first1=Katye |last2=Jones |first2=Dave |last3=Rangelova |first3=Kostanza |title=Wind targets are achievable but fall short of a tripling |publisher=Ember |date=8 August 2024 |url=https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/wind-targets-are-achievable-but-fall-short-of-a-tripling |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{altieri2024wind, author = {Altieri, Katye and Jones, Dave and Rangelova, Kostanza}, title = {{Wind targets are achievable but fall short of a tripling}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2024}, month = aug, url = {https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/wind-targets-are-achievable-but-fall-short-of-a-tripling}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }