Wind targets are achievable but fall short of a tripling

This report by Ember analyzes national wind capacity targets for 2030, finding that while current targets aim for a doubling of global capacity, they fall short of the tripling required to maintain the 1.5C climate goal. The report highlights a significant implementation gap outside of China, where most countries are projected to miss their targets, while China is expected to over-deliver.

• Global national wind targets for 2030 aim for a collective capacity of 2,157 GW, which is a 2.4x increase from the 901 GW recorded in 2022. This falls short of the 2,742 GW required for a global tripling, leaving a gap of 585 GW.
• While global forecasts from the IEA, BNEF, and GWEC suggest the sum of national targets is achievable, this is primarily due to China's performance. China is forecast to install over 50% of global wind additions between 2024 and 2030 and is expected to triple its wind capacity from 2022 to 2030.
• Outside of China, there is a significant implementation gap; of the 51 countries with forecast data and targets, 45 are expected to fall short of their 2030 goals. The largest gaps are found in major markets including the US, India, and the EU.
• The US faces a substantial gap between its implicit 2030 target of 369 GW and current forecasts. To reach this target, the US would need to build 32 GW of wind per year from 2024 to 2030, but the IEA forecasts an average of only 16.5 GW per year for 2024-2028.
• India's wind capacity target is 110 GW by 2030, requiring annual additions of 9.3 GW from 2024 to 2030. However, the 2023 build rate was 2.8 GW, and IEA forecasts average additions of 4.8 GW per year for 2024-2028.
• Brazil and Türkiye are forecast to exceed their 2030 wind targets because their targets lack sufficient ambition. Brazil's target is 31 GW by 2030, but it added 5 GW in 2023 alone. Türkiye's target is 18 GW by 2030, while the IEA predicts 1.3 GW of additions per year from 2024 to 2028.
• Offshore wind targets for 19 countries sum to 177 GW, representing a 2.9x increase from the 62 GW capacity in 2022. Forecasts suggest total offshore wind will exceed these targets by 2030, with estimates ranging from 218 GW (IEA 2028 forecast) to 298 GW (GWEC 2030 forecast).

APA

Altieri, K., Jones, D., & Rangelova, K. (2024). Wind targets are achievable but fall short of a tripling. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/wind-targets-are-achievable-but-fall-short-of-a-tripling

Chicago

Altieri, Katye, Dave Jones, and Kostanza Rangelova. Wind targets are achievable but fall short of a tripling. Ember, 2024. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/wind-targets-are-achievable-but-fall-short-of-a-tripling.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Altieri |first1=Katye |last2=Jones |first2=Dave |last3=Rangelova |first3=Kostanza |title=Wind targets are achievable but fall short of a tripling |publisher=Ember |date=8 August 2024 |url=https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/wind-targets-are-achievable-but-fall-short-of-a-tripling |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{altieri2024wind, author = {Altieri, Katye and Jones, Dave and Rangelova, Kostanza}, title = {{Wind targets are achievable but fall short of a tripling}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2024}, month = aug, url = {https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/wind-targets-are-achievable-but-fall-short-of-a-tripling}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }