Pedal to the Metal

The 2024 Global Steel Plant Tracker and Global Blast Furnace Tracker data show a growing momentum toward electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking, with 49% of capacity under development using this route. However, significant carbon lock-in risks persist as 308 mtpa of new coal-based blast furnace capacity is under development, primarily in Asia. India has surpassed China as the top overall steel developer, though China remains the largest operator of emissions-intensive capacity. While direct reduced iron (DRI) capacity is increasing, its climate impact depends on the transition to green hydrogen reducing agents, as much current capacity relies on methane or coal.

• Electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking is seeing record growth in development plans, with 49% of capacity under development in the GSPT set to use EAF, compared to 43% in 2023 and 33% in 2022. This trend suggests the IEA's net zero aligned goal of 37% EAF by 2030 is increasingly attainable, with the global fleet projected to reach over 36% EAF by 2030.
• Despite high announcement rates for EAF, actual construction lags; less than 14% of potential EAF capacity has reached the construction phase, and nearly 46% of projects that have begun construction are still based on basic oxygen furnaces (BOF).
• India has become the world's leading developer of steelmaking capacity with 258 mtpa in the pipeline, surpassing China. A significant portion of this development is emissions-intensive, with 177 mtpa of India's pipeline being BOF-based.
• There is a persistent risk of carbon lock-in, with 308 mtpa of new coal-based blast furnace (BF) ironmaking capacity under development globally across sixteen countries. This development is heavily concentrated in the Asia Pacific region, which accounts for 96% of new BF capacity.
• Direct reduced iron (DRI) is gaining ground, making up 36% of developing global ironmaking capacity with a known route, compared to only 9% of operating capacity. However, for DRI to meet net zero goals, it must transition to green hydrogen reducing agents, as current capacity in the Middle East is often methane-based and India uses many coal-based rotary kilns.
• The industry is trending toward larger blast furnaces, with the average size of furnaces under development (1,900 m3) exceeding those currently operating (1,750 m3) and those being retired (840 m3).
• New coal-based BF-BOF developments create a significant stranded asset risk, estimated between 267 billion USD and 400 billion USD. India and China face the highest risks due to their large volumes of new BF-BOF capacity.
• The United States possesses the oldest operating blast furnace fleet globally, with an average age of 73 years, while China has the youngest at twelve years.

APA

Armbruster, M., Grigsby-Schulte, A., & Swalec, C. (2024). Pedal to the Metal. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM-Pedal-to-the-Metal-2024-steel-iron-report_35.pdf

Chicago

Armbruster, Marie, Astrid Grigsby-Schulte, and Caitlin Swalec. Pedal to the Metal. Global Energy Monitor, 2024. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM-Pedal-to-the-Metal-2024-steel-iron-report_35.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Armbruster |first1=Marie |last2=Grigsby-Schulte |first2=Astrid |last3=Swalec |first3=Caitlin |title=Pedal to the Metal |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |date=July 2024 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM-Pedal-to-the-Metal-2024-steel-iron-report_35.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{armbruster2024pedal, author = {Armbruster, Marie and Grigsby-Schulte, Astrid and Swalec, Caitlin}, title = {{Pedal to the Metal}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2024}, month = jul, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM-Pedal-to-the-Metal-2024-steel-iron-report_35.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }