Warming Projections Global Update

The November 2024 update reveals a three-year stagnation in global warming projections, with current policies setting the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming by 2100. While renewable energy and electric vehicle deployment have seen record growth, these gains are offset by all-time high fossil fuel subsidies and increased funding for fossil fuel projects. The report warns that without a substantial increase in the ambition of 2030 and 2035 targets, the 1.5°C limit will likely be breached in the early 2030s, leading to a multidecadal overshoot.

• Global warming projections for 2100 have remained unchanged since 2021, with current policies leading to a median estimate of 2.7°C of warming.
• Warming projections under the 2030 targets scenario and the optimistic scenario have both increased slightly, rising to 2.6°C and 1.9°C respectively, largely due to revised estimates for China's peaking target.
• There is a critical disconnect in climate action where record-breaking progress in clean energy investments—now double those for fossil fuels—is being cancelled out by record-high fossil fuel subsidies and a quadrupling of funding for fossil fuel-prolonging projects between 2021 and 2022.
• The 2030 emissions gap for policy implementation is 24-27 GtCO2e, and the target gap is 19-23 GtCO2e, indicating that current policies will result in emissions nearly double the levels required for a 1.5°C pathway.
• Net zero target design is largely inadequate, with 75% of global emissions covered by targets rated as 'poor', 'average', or 'information incomplete' by the Climate Action Tracker.
• Global temperatures are projected to continue rising beyond 2100 under all but the most optimistic scenario, suggesting a failure to 'bend the curve' of warming.
• The election of Donald Trump as US President could potentially add 0.04°C of warming by 2100 to the current policy estimate, or increase the optimistic scenario by a few tenths of a degree if the US permanently abandons its 2050 net zero commitment.
• Many governments rely heavily on carbon dioxide removal to reach net zero, with an estimated 18-21% of 2019 emissions still being emitted even after meeting their net zero targets.

APA

Ellis, J., Geiges, A., Gonzales-Zuñiga, S., Hare, B., Heck, S., Helfmann, L., Höhne, N., Missirliu, A., Hans, F., & Pelekh, N. (2024). Warming Projections Global Update. NewClimate Institute. https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/1277/CAT_2024-11-14_GlobalUpdate_COP29.pdf

Chicago

Ellis, Jane, Andreas Geiges, Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga, Bill Hare, Sarah Heck, Luzie Helfmann, Niklas Höhne, et al. Warming Projections Global Update. NewClimate Institute, 2024. https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/1277/CAT_2024-11-14_GlobalUpdate_COP29.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{ellis2024warming, author = {Ellis, Jane and Geiges, Andreas and Gonzales-Zuñiga, Sofia and Hare, Bill and Heck, Sarah and Helfmann, Luzie and Höhne, Niklas and Missirliu, Ana and Hans, Frederic and Pelekh, Natalie}, title = {{Warming Projections Global Update}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/1277/CAT_2024-11-14_GlobalUpdate_COP29.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }