Warming Projections Global Update

The November 2024 Warming Projections Global Update by the NewClimate Institute reports that global warming projections for 2100 have stagnated over the last three years. Current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming, while the most optimistic scenario, assuming full implementation of all announced targets, projects 1.9°C. The report highlights a critical disconnect between the escalating climate crisis and the urgency of government policy implementation, noting that while renewable energy growth is record-breaking, it is being offset by all-time high fossil fuel subsidies.

• Global warming projections for 2100 have remained unchanged since 2021, with current policies leading to a median estimate of 2.7°C of warming.
• The 'optimistic scenario', which assumes full implementation of all announced targets including net zero targets, NDCs, and long-term strategies, has increased from 1.8°C to 1.9°C.
• Projections under the '2030 targets only' scenario have increased by 0.1°C to 2.6°C, largely driven by a revision of China's peaking target due to all-time high emissions in 2023.
• The 'pledges and targets' scenario, which includes binding long-term targets and 2030 NDCs, projects warming will be limited to 2.1°C, a figure that has not changed since 2021.
• Global temperatures are projected to continue rising beyond 2100 under all scenarios except the most optimistic one.
• The 2030 emissions gap for policy implementation is 24-27 GtCO2e, meaning current policies will result in emissions nearly double the levels required for a 1.5°C pathway.
• The election of Donald Trump as US President could add 0.04°C of warming by 2100 to the current policy estimate if policy rollbacks are limited to the US, or increase the optimistic scenario by a few tenths of a degree if the US net zero target is permanently removed.
• There is a significant reliance on carbon dioxide removal to reach net zero, with an estimated 18-21% of 2019 emissions still being emitted even after meeting net zero targets in some cases.

APA

Ellis, J., Geiges, A., Gonzales-Zuñiga, S., Hare, B., Heck, S., Helfmann, L., Höhne, N., Missirliu, A., Hans, F., & Pelekh, N. (2024). Warming Projections Global Update. NewClimate Institute. https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/1277/CAT_2024-11-14_GlobalUpdate_COP29.pdf

Chicago

Ellis, Jane, Andreas Geiges, Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga, Bill Hare, Sarah Heck, Luzie Helfmann, Niklas Höhne, et al. Warming Projections Global Update. NewClimate Institute, 2024. https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/1277/CAT_2024-11-14_GlobalUpdate_COP29.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{ellis2024warming, author = {Ellis, Jane and Geiges, Andreas and Gonzales-Zuñiga, Sofia and Hare, Bill and Heck, Sarah and Helfmann, Luzie and Höhne, Niklas and Missirliu, Ana and Hans, Frederic and Pelekh, Natalie}, title = {{Warming Projections Global Update}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/1277/CAT_2024-11-14_GlobalUpdate_COP29.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }