The Impact of Geopolitical Change on Humanitarian Disarmament

This policy brief from the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) examines how shifting geopolitical dynamics, rising global antagonism, and a shrinking space for civil society are hindering the momentum of humanitarian disarmament. Based on practitioner interviews and workshops, the document argues that the humanitarian disarmament community must adapt its strategies, funding models, and communication methods to remain effective in a more complex and polarized global environment.

• Humanitarian disarmament campaigns, which saw success with treaties like the 1997 Mine Ban Convention and the 2013 Arms Trade Treaty, are currently losing momentum due to increasing geopolitical tensions, a decline in attention to humanitarian values, and restricted space for civil society action.
• Global antagonism—driven by rivalries between 'The West' (including the US and EU) and states like China and Russia—creates a hostile environment for negotiating new treaties and implementing existing ones. This environment is linked to an increase in wars and battle deaths, with 2022 recording the highest number of battle-related deaths since the Cold War.
• The global distribution of power has shifted, with low- and middle-income economies increasing their share of Global GDP from 18% to 38% between 2001 and 2021. China's rise as the world's second-largest economy and the influence of other states like Brazil, India, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia have created a more complex landscape where a lack of global leadership hinders agreements on issues such as lethal autonomous weapons using AI.
• Civil society organizations (CSOs) face a narrowing operational space characterized by legal and regulatory restrictions on funding and assembly, as well as government strategies of intimidation, such as surveillance, arbitrary arrest, and smear campaigns that portray CSOs as 'foreign agents' or 'unpatriotic'.
• While digital tools have improved the speed of coordination and mobilization, they have also introduced new challenges, including the spread of disinformation, the exclusion of those without reliable internet, and a linguistic bias toward English that marginalizes non-English speakers.
• To remain effective, the authors suggest that humanitarian disarmament efforts must become more inclusive of affected communities, diversify funding to reduce dependence on Global North governments, adopt long-term approaches to victim assistance, and shift communication strategies toward arguments based on the self-interest of states rather than purely moral or ethical claims.

APA

Triana, D. F. G., Kongstad, S., & Marsh, N. (2024). The Impact of Geopolitical Change on Humanitarian Disarmament. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/dfd57100-415b-4d87-ab4c-afdbe45fa844/PRIO POLICY BRIEF 07-2024.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Triana, David Felipe Gómez, Steffen Kongstad, and Nicholas Marsh. The Impact of Geopolitical Change on Humanitarian Disarmament. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2024. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/dfd57100-415b-4d87-ab4c-afdbe45fa844/PRIO POLICY BRIEF 07-2024.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Triana |first1=David Felipe Gómez |last2=Kongstad |first2=Steffen |last3=Marsh |first3=Nicholas |title=The Impact of Geopolitical Change on Humanitarian Disarmament |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=July 2024 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/dfd57100-415b-4d87-ab4c-afdbe45fa844/PRIO POLICY BRIEF 07-2024.pdf?inline=true |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{triana2024impact, author = {Triana, David Felipe Gómez and Kongstad, Steffen and Marsh, Nicholas}, title = {{The Impact of Geopolitical Change on Humanitarian Disarmament}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2024}, month = jul, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/dfd57100-415b-4d87-ab4c-afdbe45fa844/PRIO POLICY BRIEF 07-2024.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }