The Impact of Geopolitical Change on Humanitarian Disarmament

The document analyzes the challenges facing humanitarian disarmament in a contemporary environment characterized by rising global antagonism, a redistribution of power toward the Global South, and the decline of democratic space for civil society. It argues that the success of past treaties, such as the Mine Ban Convention, is threatened by competing global priorities like climate change and the erosion of trust between major powers. The authors highlight the difficulty of building cross-regional coalitions and the risks faced by civil society organizations (CSOs) due to government restrictions and stigmatization. To remain effective, the brief suggests that disarmament efforts must become more inclusive, diversify funding sources, and shift communication strategies toward the self-interest of states rather than relying solely on moral arguments.

• Global antagonism and rivalries between 'The West' (including the US and EU) and states like China and Russia have created a more hostile environment for negotiating new treaties and implementing existing agreements.
• The redistribution of global economic and political power, particularly the rise of China and other Global South states, has complicated humanitarian campaigning, as organizations must now engage with authoritarian states while risking the compromise of core principles.
• Civil society organizations face a narrowing operational space due to legal restrictions on funding and registration, as well as aggressive government strategies including surveillance, harassment, and stigmatization as 'foreign agents'.
• Humanitarian disarmament struggles for attention and resources because it must compete with other urgent global crises, including climate change, the Covid-19 pandemic, plastic pollution, and antibiotic resistance.
• The effectiveness of the United Nations and other post-WWII multilateral institutions is declining as they are often perceived as carriers of Western values and lack the authority to ensure member states implement non-binding resolutions.
• While digital tools have improved the speed of coordination, they can reinforce exclusions based on language (dominance of English), time zones centered on New York or Geneva, and lack of internet access for marginalized communities.

APA

Triana, D. F. G., Kongstad, S., & Marsh, N. (2024). The Impact of Geopolitical Change on Humanitarian Disarmament. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/dfd57100-415b-4d87-ab4c-afdbe45fa844/PRIO POLICY BRIEF 07-2024.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Triana, David Felipe Gómez, Steffen Kongstad, and Nicholas Marsh. The Impact of Geopolitical Change on Humanitarian Disarmament. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2024. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/dfd57100-415b-4d87-ab4c-afdbe45fa844/PRIO POLICY BRIEF 07-2024.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Triana |first1=David Felipe Gómez |last2=Kongstad |first2=Steffen |last3=Marsh |first3=Nicholas |title=The Impact of Geopolitical Change on Humanitarian Disarmament |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=July 2024 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/dfd57100-415b-4d87-ab4c-afdbe45fa844/PRIO POLICY BRIEF 07-2024.pdf?inline=true |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{triana2024impact, author = {Triana, David Felipe Gómez and Kongstad, Steffen and Marsh, Nicholas}, title = {{The Impact of Geopolitical Change on Humanitarian Disarmament}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2024}, month = jul, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/dfd57100-415b-4d87-ab4c-afdbe45fa844/PRIO POLICY BRIEF 07-2024.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }