Search Climate Insights Directory

The document analyzes Russia's strategic pivot toward Africa as a means to diversify partners and evade Western sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine. It argues that while Africa is not a central priority for the Kremlin, it serves as a critical 'theater' for projecting power, securing natural resources, and challenging US-led unipolarity. The paper details Russia's approach across several sectors, including arms sales, nuclear energy, and mining, while highlighting the role of the Wagner Group in providing security in exchange for resource access. It concludes that Russia leverages African support at the UN to maintain its status as a global power and to promote a multipolar international system.

The author contends that treating climate change, pandemics, and economic instability as separate issues leads to fragmented solutions that may worsen other crises. Drawing on the concept of 'crisis tribes'—groups defined by the specific traumas they have experienced—the text argues that current dominant policy responses often prioritize narrow interests over systemic health. To counter this, the Green Economy Coalition proposes a 'new eco-social contract for a shared global green deal' focused on building global partner networks, developing national eco-social contracting prototypes, and establishing a collective global green economy architecture to ensure a fair transition for all nations.

The document argues that UN peace operations are in a 'period of retrenchment' due to a crisis of confidence and a failure to adapt to evolving conflict landscapes. It identifies systemic issues such as 'Christmas Tree mandates'—overly ambitious and multi-dimensional tasks—and a reliance on 'templated and bureaucratic approaches' to deployment. The authors advocate for a shift toward tailored, adaptive, and people-centered mission models. Key recommendations include prioritizing strategic objectives over individual tasks, improving coordination between peace operations and UN country teams, and leveraging partnerships with regional organizations like the African Union. The brief also emphasizes the need for proactive transition planning to avoid the 'peacebuilding financing cliff' and calls for more predictable, flexible resourcing to replace current arbitrary budget cuts and liquidity shortfalls.

The terminal review evaluates a UNDP-GEF project aimed at scaling early-stage innovations to enhance climate resilience in fragile regions of Uganda and Sudan. The project achieved high effectiveness, with 98% compliance of objective indicators and 94.8% of outcome targets, despite the civil war in Sudan. Key successes include the empowerment of women and the use of innovative finance mechanisms for agro-forestry commodities like coffee in Uganda and Gum Arabic in Sudan. The review highlights the success of a 'hands-off' implementation model where UNDP provided oversight while the Global Resilience Partnership (GRP) managed execution. While the project is considered highly cost-effective and sustainable, remaining risks include conflict-related challenges in Sudan and perceived high investment risks in fragile states.

The Global Resilience Partnership (GRP) has invested over US$45 million in resilience innovations across the Global South, supporting 7 million people. The 2024 portfolio highlights several specific projects: the Near East Foundation's community-based credit systems in Sudan; Mountain Harvest's regenerative coffee farming in Uganda; MetaMeta's 'Green Roads for Water' initiative in Kenya and Ethiopia; Farm to Feed's digital marketplace for surplus produce in Kenya; FSPN Africa's carbon farming in Kenya and Tanzania; ROOH's climate-resilient housing in India; Mahila Housing Trust's heat action plans in India, Bangladesh, and Nepal; and Centro Sabiá's greywater reuse and agroforestry in Brazil.

The document analyzes global conflict trends using Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) data. It finds that while battle-related deaths from state-based conflicts decreased in 2023 compared to 2022, 2023 remains the third most violent year since 1989, driven largely by wars in Ukraine and Gaza. The report notes a record high of 59 state-based conflicts in 2023, suggesting a more complex conflict landscape where fewer countries experience a higher number of simultaneous conflicts. Non-state conflicts have stabilized at a higher level than a decade ago, with the Americas now the most affected region due to cartel violence in Mexico and Brazil. One-sided violence continues to be driven primarily by non-state actors, though thirteen governments were still responsible for such violence in 2023.

The report identifies four 'pillars' of protest—demands, strategy, composition, and organization—that influence the size of a movement and the likelihood of regime loyalty shifts. It argues that non-violent, broad-based campaigns demanding regime change are most likely to succeed and lead to democratic consolidation. However, it notes a recent decline in the success rate of such movements and a rise in anti-liberal protests. For international democracy promoters, the report recommends investing in civil society infrastructure during stable periods rather than attempting to instigate regime shifts.

The document examines the role of 'civic humanitarians'—local actors embedded in society through faith, community, or ethnic ties—within Uganda's refugee response. It argues that while Uganda's progressive policies facilitate refugee-led organisations (RLOs), the localisation agenda is hindered by stringent national registration requirements and narrow, techno-managerial definitions of accountability. The authors highlight that refugees rely heavily on sociocultural support practices (such as 'saidu' and 'ubuntu' philosophy) that remain invisible in formal humanitarian debates. To improve localisation, the brief recommends creating separate registration tracks for RLOs, developing flexible funding mechanisms, and broadening the understanding of accountability to include community-driven and relational models.

The document analyzes the increasing debt distress in Africa, noting that public debt reached 65.6% of GDP in 2022. It highlights the shift toward non-concessional debt and the role of private creditors, who now hold over 40% of Africa's total external debt. The brief argues that the G20's Common Framework needs reform to be more inclusive of middle-income countries and private creditors. It advocates for the establishment of an African Credit Rating Agency to counter perceived biases from global agencies and the creation of an African Debt Monitoring Mechanism by June 2024 to improve transparency. Key recommendations include restructuring multilateral development banks, extending debt repayment periods, and increasing IMF Poverty Reduction Growth Trust access limits.

The document examines the disproportionate impact of climate change on African youth and their subsequent rise in activism. It highlights the gap between youth demographics and political leadership in Africa, the specific climate vulnerabilities in countries like Nigeria and Sudan, and the systemic barriers activists face, including financial constraints and state repression. The author calls for the establishment of youth councils, dedicated funding, and protection mechanisms to ensure young people can shape climate-resilient policies.

The report examines the migration crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean, highlighting the interconnectedness of forced displacement with climate change, energy poverty, water scarcity, and healthcare deficits. It focuses on Cyprus as a primary destination for asylum seekers, detailing the strain on infrastructure in the south and the lack of legal frameworks in the north. The author proposes a bi-communal strategy, including a joint Rapid Response Committee and a reception center in the UN Buffer Zone, to manage these transnational human security threats through cooperation between Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities.

The report forecasts a significant increase in Africa's energy demand due to population growth, projecting that it will overtake the EU27 by 2043. While Africa possesses vast oil, gas, and hydropower reserves, its current energy mix remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels, with 'other renewables' making up only 1.6% of production in 2023. The document highlights a trajectory where Africa will eventually become a major global source of carbon emissions from fossil fuels, overtaking the EU by 2034.

The report identifies Africa as a net energy exporter, though it forecasts that total energy demand will exceed production by 2039. While a small group of countries like Algeria, Nigeria, and Angola maintain high export values, a significant number of African nations remain heavily dependent on energy imports, a group expected to expand by 2043.

Africa possesses the world's highest untapped hydropower potential, yet only 11% of this capacity is currently installed. While large-scale projects like the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Plant are advancing, growth is hindered by the need for extensive transmission networks in unstable regions and institutional failures. By 2043, hydropower is forecast to contribute 5.3% of the continent's energy production.

The report identifies severe disruptions in Sudan's food systems and financial infrastructure due to conflict, noting that over 20 million people face acute food insecurity. It highlights a dramatic decrease in planted areas, the destruction of processing capacity in Khartoum, and the collapse of the Central Bank of Sudan's electronic banking switch. To address these, the document proposes 'twin-track' interventions focusing on prioritized value chains (sorghum, horticulture, and oilseeds) and the adoption of digital financial services and informal payment networks to bypass physical and institutional barriers.

The document analyzes the 'epidemic' of military takeovers in Africa, identifying governance dysfunction, democratic decline, civil-military tensions, and Islamist insurgencies as primary drivers. It argues that the African Union (AU) and regional economic communities (RECs) have relied on reactive, inconsistent, and ineffective blanket sanctions that fail to deter coup plotters. The author recommends a shift toward prevention, targeted sanctions, and the strengthening of civil-military relations and democratic legitimacy.

The report examines vertical integration in National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes, finding that while most countries reference sub-national governments and non-governmental actors, there are varying levels of integration across planning, implementation, and monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) stages.

The report examines vertical integration in National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), highlighting the roles of subnational governments and non-governmental actors. Based on an analysis of 45 multisectoral NAPs, it finds that while most countries recognize subnational roles in planning and implementation, gaps remain in monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) and stable financial flows to local levels. It provides recommendations for national governments, subnational authorities, development partners, and funding bodies to strengthen multi-level coordination and capacity.

The Green Climate Fund's Accreditation Panel recommends the re-accreditation of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) for a second term, maintaining its scope for medium-sized projects and medium environmental and social risk (Category B). The assessment confirms FAO's strong technical expertise in adaptation, REDD+, and the blue economy, and its ability to implement GCF's gender and environmental and social policies. While generally compliant, the Panel identified a gap in explicit policy statements regarding Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT), making the re-accreditation conditional upon the formal approval of an AML/CFT policy or the inclusion of consistent statements within its prohibited practices policies.

A review of 41 multisector NAP documents reveals that transboundary climate risks are sporadically mentioned and lack a systematic approach, with most references limited to shared ecosystems like river basins. The document argues that the dominance of place-based adaptation and state sovereignty norms hinder the integration of cross-border risks, and recommends leveraging intergovernmental organizations and territorial framing to improve regional collaboration.