Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2023

The document analyzes global conflict trends using Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) data. It finds that while battle-related deaths from state-based conflicts decreased in 2023 compared to 2022, 2023 remains the third most violent year since 1989, driven largely by wars in Ukraine and Gaza. The report notes a record high of 59 state-based conflicts in 2023, suggesting a more complex conflict landscape where fewer countries experience a higher number of simultaneous conflicts. Non-state conflicts have stabilized at a higher level than a decade ago, with the Americas now the most affected region due to cartel violence in Mexico and Brazil. One-sided violence continues to be driven primarily by non-state actors, though thirteen governments were still responsible for such violence in 2023.

• In 2023, the number of state-based conflicts reached 59, the highest number recorded since 1946. However, the number of conflict-affected countries decreased to 34, indicating that a greater number of conflicts are occurring within a smaller number of countries, which suggests the conflict landscape is becoming more complex.
• Battle-related deaths from state-based conflicts in 2023 totaled approximately 122,000. While this was a halving of deaths compared to 2022, 2023 was the third most violent year since 1989. The primary drivers of these fatalities were the Russian invasion of Ukraine (71,000 deaths) and the war between Israel and Palestine (23,000 deaths in less than three months).
• Non-state conflicts, which involve organized groups without governmental links, have stabilized at a higher level than ten years ago. In 2023, there were 75 such conflicts resulting in around 21,000 battle-related deaths. The Americas became the region with the highest number of non-state conflicts (36), largely due to drug cartel violence in Mexico and Brazil.
• One-sided violence against civilians resulted in more than 10,200 fatalities across 35 countries in 2023. Non-state actors were the primary perpetrators, causing 7,200 fatalities, while government actors caused 2,000. This reflects a widening gap between non-state and state-perpetrated one-sided violence, although thirteen governments were still responsible for such acts in 2023.
• Regional analysis of state-based conflicts shows that Africa remains the most affected region with 28 conflicts in 2023, nearly double the 15 recorded in 2013. In the Middle East, battle-related deaths rose from just over 5,000 in 2022 to almost 26,000 in 2023, with the vast majority occurring in the Israel-Palestine war.
• The report identifies a trend of increasing internationalization in civil conflicts over the last decade. In 2023, 23 out of 59 state-based conflicts were internationalized civil conflicts, defined as those where third-party governments deploy combat personnel to support one side.

APA

Rustad, S. A. (2024). Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2023. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/92a7aad5-3572-4886-9e9c-8aa155f1d0f4/Conflict_Trends-2024_DIGITAL.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Rustad, Siri Aas. Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2023. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2024. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/92a7aad5-3572-4886-9e9c-8aa155f1d0f4/Conflict_Trends-2024_DIGITAL.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rustad |first1=Siri Aas |title=Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2023 |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2024 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/92a7aad5-3572-4886-9e9c-8aa155f1d0f4/Conflict_Trends-2024_DIGITAL.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rustad2024conflict, author = {Rustad, Siri Aas}, title = {{Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2023}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2024}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/92a7aad5-3572-4886-9e9c-8aa155f1d0f4/Conflict_Trends-2024_DIGITAL.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }