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The document examines the legal tension between the right to self-determination and the principle of uti possidetis (the inviolability of colonial borders) in Africa. It argues that South Sudan's independence represents a normative shift from state security to human security, suggesting that territorial integrity is not absolute when serious human rights violations occur and representative government is denied. The author traces the historical marginalisation of southern Sudan and concludes that while independence is a key step, full self-determination requires ongoing democratic and institutional guarantees.

The report analyzes the geopolitical tensions arising from natural gas discoveries in the Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), particularly the conflict between the Republic of Cyprus (RoC) and Turkey. It explores how these resources could either catalyze a political settlement or exacerbate regional instability. Additionally, it provides a comparative analysis of wealth management, contrasting the 'resource curse' seen in Sudan with the successful 'Norwegian model' to offer guidance for Cyprus on avoiding economic pitfalls like 'Dutch disease'.

The document examines the tensions and opportunities in the relationship between the South African government and its business sector regarding activities in Southern Africa. It highlights a domestic legacy of mistrust rooted in apartheid and ideological differences, which hinders coordinated economic diplomacy. While South African corporate expansion supports regional growth, it has also led to perceptions of 'neo-imperialism'. The paper discusses the ANC's call for a business code of conduct and recommends a 'perceptions audit', improved diplomatic skills, and increased dialogue between business and parliament to align national economic interests with regional development goals.

The document examines the transition from the African Renaissance Fund (ARF) to the South African Development Partnership Agency (SADPA). It details SADPA's intended role in coordinating international development cooperation, its potential funding of up to R3 billion, and its dual purpose of supporting African regional integration while opening economic opportunities for South African businesses.

China is increasingly engaging in post-conflict settings in Africa, though it lacks a uniform policy framework. Its approach is characterized by a preference for non-interference, a belief in indigenous African agency, and the prioritization of economic modernization and infrastructure over political reform. In Sudan, China has transitioned from a political patron of Khartoum to a more complex role involving participation in UN and AU peacekeeping missions, providing humanitarian aid in Darfur, and establishing diplomatic relations with the Republic of South Sudan. While China's bilateral model offers rapid infrastructure delivery and financing, the document suggests that future success depends on aligning Chinese assistance with African-led strategies and enhancing synergies between bilateral and multilateral efforts.

The document analyzes the rise of intra-South insecurity in South Sudan, attributing it to historical leadership splits, ethnic tensions, the militarization of politics, and political interference by the SPLM. It details several active rebellions led by former generals and assesses the impact of these dynamics on state stability and development, while providing policy recommendations for the Government of South Sudan and the international community.

In a 2011 speech, Dame Nicola Brewer describes the evolving relationship between the UK and South Africa, framing Africa as a continent of potential rather than a problem. She highlights the UK's commitment to development aid, regional integration, and a transition to a carbon-constrained future, while advocating for shared democratic values and African leadership in resolving regional conflicts and reforming the UN Security Council.

The document examines the historical and contemporary drivers of conflict in Sudan, arguing that the centralisation of power in Khartoum and the economic neglect of peripheral regions created a pattern of resistance. It distinguishes between the 'high politics' of oil, which fueled the second civil war and secessionist movements, and the 'low politics' of subsistence resources, such as land and water, which continue to drive local-level violence between pastoralists and farmers. The author concludes that the stability of both Northern and Southern Sudan depends on their ability to move away from elite-driven power concentration and establish inclusive governance and resource-sharing frameworks.

The policy brief examines how the mismanagement of oil resources, lack of transparency, and systemic corruption contributed to the breakup of Sudan. It highlights the failure of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) to resolve disputes over oil-rich border areas like Heglig and Abyei, and notes that both Northern and Southern leaders neglected local communities in oil-bearing regions. The author concludes that the perceived injustice in the distribution of oil wealth convinced Southern Sudanese that secession was the only path to fairness.

The document examines the complex interdependence between Northern and Southern Sudan as the South moves toward independence. It highlights the critical role of oil co-management, as Southern Sudan derives 98% of its income from oil exports that must travel through Northern infrastructure. The author argues that while the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) provided a path to secession, significant risks remain, including unresolved border disputes in Abyei, the potential for continued insurgency in the North, and the fragile internal governance of the South. Regionally, the document notes the potential for a new independent South Sudan to shift the balance of power within the Nile Basin Initiative, potentially challenging Egypt's historical dominance over Nile water rights.

The seminar highlighted the economic interdependence of Northern and Southern Sudan, noting that while oil and water resources are critical for the viability of both regions, they could serve as unifying factors for peace. Key challenges identified include the governance of the oil sector, the distribution of Nile basin water, the status of the Abyei region, and the presence of Darfur rebels in the South.

The report examines the tension between national sovereignty and supranationalism in African decision-making, highlighting the role of the African Union (AU) and Regional Economic Communities (RECs). It analyzes the complexities of forming 'African Common Positions', using the 2009 Copenhagen climate negotiations as a case study, and critiques the EU's approach to partnership, specifically regarding Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs). The document also explores security architectures in the Horn of Africa and Southern Africa, noting the influence of external actors and the challenges of multi-membership in regional bodies.

The report examines the potential secession of Southern Sudan, highlighting unresolved issues such as border demarcation and oil revenue division. It assesses the risks of the new state becoming a 'weak state' with limited control over its borders and the proliferation of small arms, while also noting opportunities for regional economic integration and trade with Kenya and Uganda.

The briefing examines the tensions between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) ahead of the 2011 referendum. It highlights disputes over voter registration, the status of the Abyei region, and post-referendum arrangements regarding oil revenue and borders. The author notes that while South Sudan possesses significant oil and mineral wealth, it faces challenges regarding governance, infrastructure, and ethnic stability. The document also details the role of international actors, such as the US and AUHIP, in attempting to prevent a return to armed conflict.

The report details a two-day conference in Nairobi focused on the integration of the private security sector into African peacekeeping. It examines the shift from 'combat' roles to 'non-core' military functions, the tension between state monopolies on force and the efficiency of private contractors, and the urgent need for binding international regulatory frameworks to replace non-binding guidelines like the Montreux Document.

The document examines the 'major loophole' in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) regarding the lack of a clear judicial mechanism to compensate Southern Sudanese communities for environmental degradation caused by oil companies. It details the adverse impacts of oil production—including water contamination, soil erosion, and mass displacement—and analyzes the overlapping and often conflicting jurisdictions of the Government of National Unity (GNU) and the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS). The author argues that while the CPA guarantees compensation, the absence of specific environmental laws and the political nature of the National Petroleum Commission (NPC) leave victims without recourse. The paper recommends the urgent enactment of interim environmental laws and the use of existing regional judiciaries to fill the legal vacuum before the 2011 referendum.

The document examines the viability of Sudan's April 2010 elections, arguing that they are plagued by democratic closure, security concerns, and extreme logistical complexity. It highlights the boycott of the presidential race by Yassir Arman and disputes over the 2008 census as key risk factors. The author suggests that the elections should have been postponed or simplified, as the complexity of the ballots—particularly in South Sudan—and the proximity to the January 2011 self-determination referendum undermine their purpose of promoting national unity.

The National Chairman of the South African Institute of International Affairs reviews the 2009-2010 period, highlighting South Africa's influence in the G20 and the BASIC group during the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit. It discusses the need for reform in Bretton Woods institutions and the challenges of democratic stability in Africa, specifically in Zimbabwe, Nigeria, and Sudan. The statement also outlines President Zuma's prioritisation of bilateral relations with Angola, Brazil, and the UK, and the establishment of the South African Development Partnership Agency (SADPA).

The report analyzes the complex relationship between Egypt and the Sudan (North and South) ahead of the 2011 Southern Sudan referendum. It highlights Egypt's strategic interests in Nile water security, regional stability, and trade, while warning that a flawed referendum or failed secession negotiations could lead to renewed civil war or state collapse. The document argues that Egypt must move beyond its preference for Sudanese unity to constructively engage with both Northern and Southern Sudanese entities to ensure a peaceful transition and maintain its influence in the Nile Basin.

The report details a seminar on Sudan's political transition under the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Discussions focused on the challenges of upcoming elections, the resolution of the Abyei border dispute via the Permanent Court of Arbitration, and the ongoing instability in Darfur. Speakers highlighted the CPA's limitations, including its lack of representativeness and unresolved issues regarding oil revenue sharing and the separation of religion and state.