The Sudan Election Countdown

The document examines the viability of Sudan's April 2010 elections, arguing that they are plagued by democratic closure, security concerns, and extreme logistical complexity. It highlights the boycott of the presidential race by Yassir Arman and disputes over the 2008 census as key risk factors. The author suggests that the elections should have been postponed or simplified, as the complexity of the ballots—particularly in South Sudan—and the proximity to the January 2011 self-determination referendum undermine their purpose of promoting national unity.

• The 2010 elections are characterized by 'democratic closure,' evidenced by the boycott of the presidential election by Yassir Arman, the main challenger to President Bashir. Arman's decision is based on 'security fears, the continued conflict in Darfur and irregularities in the management of the electoral process system.'
• A significant political risk involves a deadlock between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) over the 2008 population census. The SPLM claims the NCP 'bloated figures for the North', specifically for 'Arab' tribes in Darfur, which allegedly reduced the South's population proportion.
• The electoral process is described as 'the most ambitious and complicated in Sudan’s history,' with extreme burdens on voters. In South Sudan, where the UN reports a literacy rate of 24% (and only 12% for women), voters must complete 12 separate ballots. Mock voting showed it took women close to 45 minutes to cast these ballots, while an illiterate person might take twice as long as an educated person (36 minutes).
• Security and legal frameworks undermine the fairness of the elections. A December 2009 law maintains wide-ranging 'search, arrest, and seizure powers' for the armed forces, which critics argue threatens 'freedom of speech and a fair playing field.' Additionally, the Election Act lacks provisions for millions of internally displaced persons (IDPs) from Darfur to vote in their places of origin.
• The author argues that the elections should have been postponed until after the January 2011 self-determination referendum or limited to executive positions. Because the process will likely involve 'a few tense months of vote counting' and contesting results, there is insufficient time left to 'make unity attractive' to Southerners before the referendum.

APA

Mwanika, P. N., & Heleta, S. (2010). The Sudan Election Countdown. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-sudan-election-countdown

Chicago

Mwanika, Philip Njuguna, and Savo Heleta. The Sudan Election Countdown. Institute for Security Studies, 2010. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-sudan-election-countdown.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mwanika |first1=Philip Njuguna |last2=Heleta |first2=Savo |title=The Sudan Election Countdown |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=April 2010 |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-sudan-election-countdown |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mwanika2010sudan, author = {Mwanika, Philip Njuguna and Heleta, Savo}, title = {{The Sudan Election Countdown}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2010}, month = apr, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-sudan-election-countdown}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }