South Sudan: origins and implications of emerging (in)security dynamics

The document analyzes the rise of intra-South insecurity in South Sudan, attributing it to historical leadership splits, ethnic tensions, the militarization of politics, and political interference by the SPLM. It details several active rebellions led by former generals and assesses the impact of these dynamics on state stability and development, while providing policy recommendations for the Government of South Sudan and the international community.

• Since April 2010, eight individuals have led active rebellions against the Government of South Sudan (GoSS), with some resuming or starting activities after the 2011 referendum. These include George Athor Deng, Bapiny Monituel, Gabriel Tanginye, Peter Gatdet, Gatluak Gai, Abdel Bagi Ayii, David Yau Yau, and Uluak Oliny.
• The security situation is driven by four main categories of insecurity: age-old cultural practices like cattle rustling and child abduction, inter-ethnic tensions, strains in North-South relations, and politically motivated tensions resulting from competition and personality clashes.
• Historical fragmentation within Southern leadership has undermined cohesion. The Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) became a conglomerate of various armed groups and warlords following the 2006 Juba Declaration, which integrated elements that had previously fought against the SPLA.
• Ethnic identity and the fear of Dinka dominance fuel insecurity. There are perceptions that the Dinka marginalize other tribes, exploit leadership positions to settle wartime scores, and control national resources and lucrative government appointments.
• Politics in South Sudan is heavily militarized, with army generals dominating the ruling SPLM and state governance. For example, eight out of ten state governors were former SPLA generals, which often leads to military rather than democratic solutions for political crises.
• Political interference by the SPLM Political Bureau during the April 2010 gubernatorial elections created significant grievances. The Bureau rejected some candidates elected by electoral colleges in favor of those deemed loyal to the party, leading to revolts by figures like George Athor.
• While the GoSS has accused the National Congress Party (NCP) in Khartoum of covertly arming rebels, the document states that no independent proof has been presented to substantiate these claims.
• The emerging insecurity threatens to undermine investor confidence, discourage the return of the skilled diaspora, and divert national resources toward an increased defense budget at the expense of development.
• Efforts to foster internal peace, including South-South dialogue forums, amnesty for rebelling generals, and the creation of the Ministry of Peace and CPA Implementation, are viewed as unfinished projects due to a lack of genuine commitment from leadership and political exclusion.

APA

Atta-Asamoah, A., Sharamo, R. D., & Mwanzia, P. M. (2011). South Sudan: origins and implications of emerging (in)security dynamics. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SitRep2011_29July.pdf

Chicago

Atta-Asamoah, Andrews, Roba D. Sharamo, and Philip M. Mwanzia. South Sudan: origins and implications of emerging (in)security dynamics. Institute for Security Studies, 2011. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SitRep2011_29July.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Atta-Asamoah |first1=Andrews |last2=Sharamo |first2=Roba D. |last3=Mwanzia |first3=Philip M. |title=South Sudan: origins and implications of emerging (in)security dynamics |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 July 2011 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SitRep2011_29July.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{attaasamoah2011south, author = {Atta-Asamoah, Andrews and Sharamo, Roba D. and Mwanzia, Philip M.}, title = {{South Sudan: origins and implications of emerging (in)security dynamics}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2011}, month = jul, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SitRep2011_29July.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }