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The report confirms that the Building Climate Resilience for Food and Livelihoods in the Horn of Africa (BREFOL) programme, managed by the African Development Bank, is classified as an Environmental and Social Safeguards (ESS) Category B programme. It documents the disclosure of Environmental and Social Management Frameworks (ESMF) and Environmental and Social Management Plans (ESMP) on February 2, 2024, in English, French, Amharic, and Somali across Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and South Sudan.

Turkey has expanded its influence in sub-Saharan Africa by leveraging a combination of humanitarian diplomacy, shared religious identity, and an anti-colonial narrative to establish soft power, which has subsequently paved the way for hard power interests. A key pillar of this strategy is the relationship with Somalia, recently solidified by a 10-year Defence and Economic Co-operation Framework Agreement granting Turkey authority over the management and defence of Somali waters. While Turkey positions itself as an alternative to Western powers, it faces competition from other middle powers like the UAE, Qatar, and Egypt. The document notes that Turkey's future engagement will be heavily influenced by its domestic economic crisis, potentially shifting priority toward high-yield economic activities such as defence exports and construction contracts over humanitarian aid.

The report examines Kenya's climate risk insurance landscape, highlighting the effectiveness of government-subsidised programmes like KLIP and KAIP, while identifying significant barriers such as inadequate weather data, low insurance penetration (2.4%), and a substantial adaptation funding gap of approximately KES 853bn annually. It argues for a multi-level risk transfer approach and improved data infrastructure to enhance the commercial viability and impact of climate insurance.

Natural Justice's 2024-2028 strategy focuses on the legal empowerment of African communities to defend their rights against harmful extractive projects and climate impacts. The organisation employs a 'Litigation Plus' approach, combining strategic legal action with community-led research and policy influencing. Key priorities include securing land tenure, protecting traditional knowledge via the Nagoya Protocol, and promoting a just energy transition. The strategy is implemented through three main programmes: Standing with Communities, Defending Rights against Environmental and Social Impacts, and Affirming and Securing Rights to Lands, Resources and Knowledge.

Natural Justice's 2024-2028 strategy focuses on empowering African indigenous peoples and local communities to defend their land, resource, and human rights against environmental threats and extractive projects. The organization employs a 'litigation plus' approach, combining strategic legal action with community legal education and advocacy. Key priorities include fighting fossil fuel expansion, securing land tenure, and protecting traditional knowledge, with a specific emphasis on feminist leadership and the decolonization of environmental justice.

The document examines how climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' that exacerbates gender-based violence (GBV) by interacting with existing structural vulnerabilities and gender power dynamics. It highlights that women and gender minorities face distinct risks due to their specific labor roles, such as water collection and farming, and limited access to resources. While review articles show an increase in GBV following extreme weather events, the author notes a lack of robust quantitative data and a significant knowledge gap regarding sexual and gender minorities. The brief calls for governments to translate UN Women, Peace and Security (WPS) commitments into action through gender-sensitive disaster relief and the inclusion of marginalized groups in adaptation planning.

The document examines the role of 'civic humanitarians'—local actors embedded in society through faith, community, or ethnic ties—within Uganda's refugee response. It argues that while Uganda's progressive policies facilitate refugee-led organisations (RLOs), the localisation agenda is hindered by stringent national registration requirements and narrow, techno-managerial definitions of accountability. The authors highlight that refugees rely heavily on sociocultural support practices (such as 'saidu' and 'ubuntu' philosophy) that remain invisible in formal humanitarian debates. To improve localisation, the brief recommends creating separate registration tracks for RLOs, developing flexible funding mechanisms, and broadening the understanding of accountability to include community-driven and relational models.

The document analyzes the increasing debt distress in Africa, noting that public debt reached 65.6% of GDP in 2022. It highlights the shift toward non-concessional debt and the role of private creditors, who now hold over 40% of Africa's total external debt. The brief argues that the G20's Common Framework needs reform to be more inclusive of middle-income countries and private creditors. It advocates for the establishment of an African Credit Rating Agency to counter perceived biases from global agencies and the creation of an African Debt Monitoring Mechanism by June 2024 to improve transparency. Key recommendations include restructuring multilateral development banks, extending debt repayment periods, and increasing IMF Poverty Reduction Growth Trust access limits.

The study finds that human-induced climate change and a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) contributed approximately equally to the magnitude of extreme rainfall in the Horn of Africa during the 2023 OND season. While the IOD is a natural oscillation, the warming of 1.2C from fossil fuel combustion approximately doubled the rainfall magnitude. The researchers report high confidence that climate change increased rainfall intensity, though they have low confidence in the specific quantification due to limited model correlation and short records. The impact was compounded by previous droughts, unsustainable land management, and systemic challenges in early warning systems, leading to over 300 deaths and the displacement of more than one million people in Kenya and Somalia.

The briefing contends that fossil fuel extraction in Africa has failed to provide energy access, with 600 million people remaining without power while resources are exported. It highlights that Africa possesses 39% of the global renewable energy potential but lacks the investment and technology to harness it. The document proposes a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty based on non-proliferation, fair phase-out, and a just transition to provide the international framework needed to shift financing from fossil fuels to renewables and ensure a just energy transition for the continent.

The briefing contends that fossil fuel extraction in Africa has failed to provide universal electricity access, with 600 million people still lacking power, while most production is exported. It highlights that Africa possesses 39% of the world's renewable energy potential but receives only 2% of global renewable investments. The document proposes a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty based on three pillars: non-proliferation of new infrastructure, a just phase-out of existing production, and financial/technical support for a global transition to renewables.

The policy brief examines the 'stabilisation' phase of Somalia's offensive against Al-Shabaab, highlighting how resource competition among political elites and donors creates coordination failures. It identifies tensions between federal and state governments, donor-driven top-down approaches, and the risks of rushing interim administration formation in liberated areas, recommending a centralised stabilisation fund and a central coordinating body.

The document analyzes the distinct paths toward statehood for Somaliland and the SADR, contrasting Somaliland's case of secession from Somalia with the SADR's struggle for self-determination against Moroccan occupation. It examines how the African Union's adherence to inviolable colonial borders, despite precedents like Eritrea and South Sudan, complicates these efforts. The authors argue that both territories seek to reclaim colonial-era boundaries rather than alter them, yet they face significant economic and political hurdles due to a lack of formal recognition.

The Great Blue Wall (GBW) is a proposed regional programme for the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) designed to create a network of regenerative seascapes. Led by the IUCN and targeting nine countries, the initiative seeks to combine nature-based solutions with innovative financing to protect critical blue ecosystems—such as mangroves, seagrasses, and coral reefs—while fostering a regenerative blue economy. The programme requests USD 200 million from the Green Climate Fund (GCF), with an additional USD 100 million in co-financing, to implement a four-component strategy focusing on policy frameworks, market development, capital flow acceleration, and regional coordination. Key goals by 2031 include the protection of 2 million km² of the ocean in the WIO and the creation of 2 million jobs.

The report identifies systemic barriers to gender equality in the off-grid solar (OGS) sector across sixteen Sub-Saharan African countries, highlighting a critical lack of sex-disaggregated data and the prevalence of restrictive social norms. It finds that women generally have less access to OGS technologies and are underrepresented in technical and leadership roles within the workforce. To address these gaps, the Hardest-to-Reach (H2R) initiative proposes a strategy focused on elevating women as customers, employees, and entrepreneurs through gender-lens investing, technical assistance for portfolio companies, and dedicated training facilities.

The document defines 'biotic eruptions' as population or biomass explosions of species driven by human alterations to the environment or the introduction/removal of species. These eruptions can lead to irreversible state shifts in ecosystems, such as harmful algal blooms (HABs) or Arctic greening, which disrupt food security and economic stability. The author argues that these ecological disruptions can cascade into social instability and conflict, particularly in regions with weak governance. Case studies on Lake Victoria and China illustrate how biodiversity loss and invasive species like the fall armyworm exacerbate vulnerabilities. The briefing recommends restoring keystone species, reducing nutrient pollution, and diversifying food systems to enhance security resilience.

Iberdrola is implementing a just transition strategy focused on decarbonizing the economy while supporting affected workers and communities. The company has closed all its coal plants and is investing heavily in renewables, with planned expenditures of €47 billion from 2023-2025 and €65-75 billion between 2026 and 2030. Key initiatives include the Exiom-Iberdrola Alliance in Spain to manufacture photovoltaic modules, the School of Electricians for Women in Brazil, and collaborations with UNICEF to promote green employment in Spain, Brazil, and Somalia. Iberdrola also advocates for a just transition through international pledges and was the first company to share its Climate Transition Plan for net zero emissions before 2040 with the UN.

The "Hardest-to-Reach" (H2R) programme aims to provide clean, climate-resilient off-grid solar (OGS) energy to 72.4 million people across 16 sub-Saharan African countries. The initiative utilizes a two-pronged financing approach: a $50 million grant-funded Market Support Facility (MSF) to support market entry and capacity building for new players, and a $200 million blended finance Market Expansion Facility (MEF) providing impact-linked loans to scale existing OGS companies. The programme targets a mitigation outcome of 5.1 million tCO2eq avoided and an adaptation outcome of 54.3 million first-time energy access beneficiaries. It emphasizes gender inclusivity, targeting 32% female customers and creating approximately 13,922 green jobs, including 4,641 for women.

The document outlines the interconnected risks of climate change, food insecurity, and national security, specifically focusing on how these factors drive instability in the Horn of Africa. It argues that food insecurity acts as both a byproduct and a driver of conflict, creating opportunities for violent extremist organizations like al-Shabab to gain influence. Using Ethiopia as a case study, the briefing highlights the impact of drought, floods, and interstate disputes over resources, while noting that the U.S. national security strategy recognizes global food systems as being under threat from climate events and geopolitical conflicts.

The Horn of Africa faces severe challenges including governance failure, chronic food insecurity, and high poverty rates, with no countries on track to eliminate extreme poverty by 2030. The region is characterized by a very young population and high dependence on rain-fed agriculture, which is increasingly threatened by climate change and conflict. While Ethiopia and Sudan dominate the regional GDP, most nations suffer from poor infrastructure and dysfunctional health and education systems. The report models an 'Integrated Development Push' scenario involving improvements in governance, agriculture, and human capital, which could significantly increase regional GDP and reduce extreme poverty by 2040.