Search Climate Insights Directory

This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics explains the mechanisms of El Niño, its interaction with climate change, and its global socio-economic and environmental impacts. It highlights a 61% chance of an El Niño event emerging between May and July 2026, noting that human-caused warming is likely increasing the frequency and severity of such events, while simultaneously making them harder to predict.

The report argues that the convergence of trade and climate policy is creating systemic gaps that marginalize developing countries. It highlights the mismatch between WTO rules and climate objectives, the lack of a unified governance space between the WTO and UNFCCC, and a scarcity of granular data on distributional impacts. To ensure a just transition, the authors advocate for a multilateral agenda that prioritizes development, differentiation, and the treatment of green technologies as global public goods.

This briefing from RMI and the New Energy Industrial Strategy (NEIS) Center analyzes the global energy crisis triggered by the US-Iran war. It argues that while governments are currently relying on short-term fixes like strategic reserves and subsidies, the crisis provides an opportunity to accelerate the transition to clean energy, electrification, and efficiency to reduce long-term vulnerability to volatile global fuel markets.

The research paper 'The New Twin Fossil Shock' analyzes how two major energy crises in the 2020s—the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the 2026 shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz—are accelerating the global transition to an 'electric age.' The authors argue that unlike the oil shocks of the 1970s, current alternatives such as solar, wind, and electric vehicles (EVs) are cost-competitive, scalable, and provide a permanent route out of fossil fuel dependency.

The US electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing a slowdown in momentum due to federal policy shifts, including the expiration of purchase tax credits and the repeal of tailpipe emission limits. While EV sales fell 4% in 2025, charging infrastructure continues to expand through private investment. Automakers are pivoting away from all-electric targets toward a mix of hybrids and affordable models, while manufacturing investments in the Midwest and South have seen significant cancellations.

The research paper argues for a binding international agreement on fossil fuel subsidies within the WTO framework to address global negative externalities and climate change. It proposes using the Agreement on Climate Change, Trade and Sustainability (ACCTS) as a model, specifically highlighting the Standardized Carbon Rate Measurement (SCRM) as a way to move beyond definitional debates. The authors suggest that successful subsidy reduction must be linked to a state's capacity to transition to green energy and may require WTO waivers on local content requirements to support renewable energy transitions.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies outlines a proposed 'Energy Policy scenario' for Africa to transition toward a low-emissions energy future. It analyzes the gap between current fossil fuel production and climate targets, the potential for scaling renewables and nuclear energy, and the role of energy efficiency in reducing total demand.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the impact of various global carbon tax scenarios on Africa's energy transition and economic future, specifically highlighting the 'Sustainable Africa' scenario.

This report by Ember and the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) argues that falling costs for 'electrotech'—solar, batteries, and electric end-use technologies—provide a faster and cheaper path to energy access and economic development for emerging markets than traditional fossil-fuel-based models. It highlights how many CVF nations are already leapfrogging developed economies in solar penetration and electrification, reducing their dependence on expensive fossil fuel imports.

The Industrial Transformation Technology and Investment Model (ITTIM) is a free, open-source Excel-based tool designed to map transition pathways for achieving non-emitting industrial sectors. It estimates energy use, CO2 emissions, expenditures, and capital investment needs across various regions and subindustries, utilizing a cumulative six-tier technology framework to mitigate 97% to 99% of industrial energy-related and cement calcination emissions.

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers outlines principles for reforming the UN Security Council (UNSC) to better reflect current global power dynamics and increase legitimacy. The author argues for an expanded Council that balances representation with functionality and realism, proposing the removal of the veto and the introduction of minimum capacity criteria for membership.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies outlines the challenges Africa faces in transitioning to a low-carbon future, emphasizing that the region will suffer disproportionately from climate change despite its low contribution to the cause. It argues for a gradual energy transition, the necessity of climate finance, and the implementation of a fair global carbon tax to support sustainable development and resilience.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the critical lack of connecting infrastructure in Africa and its impact on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). It highlights significant gaps in road and air transport, the financial deficits in infrastructure funding, and the role of external investment from China.

This research paper introduction from the Institute for Security Studies provides an overview of the current global climate crisis, highlighting record-breaking temperatures in 2024, the increasing frequency of weather-related disasters, and the rising scale of climate-induced displacement. It emphasizes the gap between current policies and the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, while noting the persistent rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

This report section analyzes the impact of commodity dependence on African economies, detailing the 'resource curse' where heavy reliance on raw material exports correlates with poor governance, political corruption, and slow economic growth. It contrasts the development trajectories of resource-rich and resource-poor nations and discusses the role of sovereign wealth funds and the global energy transition in shaping future demand.

This research paper provides a historical and contemporary overview of governance in the Global South, examining how colonial legacies, Cold War geopolitics, and structural adjustment programmes have shaped modern state structures. It analyzes governance performance using World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) and highlights a divergence between political participation and institutional capacity across different regions.

This research paper analyzes the sectoral composition of economies across different income groups, focusing on the role of manufacturing, services, and ICT in economic development. It compares Africa's development trajectory with those of India, China, and the Asian Tigers, highlighting the impact of industrialization and demographic windows on growth.

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers analyzes the failure of UN Security Council (UNSC) reform, attributing the deadlock to the entrenched positions of negotiating blocks and the P5 members' desire to maintain the veto power and their associated privileges.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines two primary policy responses to climate change in Africa: carbon sequestration through forest regeneration and the implementation of a global carbon tax. It highlights the critical role of the Congo Basin as a carbon sink and analyzes four illustrative global carbon tax scenarios, concluding that a differentiated payment approach aligns best with international equity principles and the Paris Agreement.

This research paper argues that the UN Security Council (UNSC) requires structural reform due to its eroding authority and a global shift in power. Using forecasting data, the author suggests that future legitimacy depends on including the US, China, and India, while proposing a move away from permanent vetoes toward verifiable criteria for global power and the potential inclusion of regional coalitions.