Reconsidering Planned Generation

The report argues that many planned coal plants in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are candidates for reconsideration due to declining costs of solar and battery storage, evolving grid needs, and the risk of long-term financial lock-in. It introduces a five-indicator framework—fuel source, initiation date, sunk costs, designed grid role, and evolution of grid needs—to prioritize plants for reevaluation. RMI's analysis suggests that solar paired with battery energy storage systems (BESS) is increasingly cost-competitive with new ultra-supercritical coal, potentially offering a more affordable and flexible alternative for modernizing grids.

• As of October 2025, there are over 640 GW of grid-connected coal power in the global development pipeline, with 630 GW of that capacity planned in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
• A significant portion of the planned coal pipeline in LMICs consists of projects conceived over a decade ago, with 28% (over 170 GW) initiated prior to 2016.
• RMI proposes a five-indicator framework to identify coal plants for reconsideration: fuel source (imported vs. domestic), initiation date, sunk costs/obligations, designed grid role (baseload vs. mid-merit), and the evolution of grid needs.
• Plants in the early stages of development are the most viable candidates for reconsideration; approximately 370 GW of planned coal plants are in the announced, pre-permitting, or permitted stages.
• The operational needs of grids are shifting away from traditional baseload power toward flexibility and peaking capacity, which often conflicts with the design of planned coal plants.
• Solar paired with four-hour battery energy storage systems (BESS) is currently cost-competitive with new coal on a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) basis under moderate cost assumptions.
• By 2040, solar paired with BESS could outcompete new coal in all projections, with costs potentially as low as 40% of new coal project costs.
• Technological advancements in clean energy have seen dramatic cost reductions over the last decade: solar costs fell by 70%, wind by 55%, and battery costs by 90%.
• Virtual power plants (VPPs) and long-duration energy storage (LDES) are emerging as critical tools for increasing grid flexibility and integrating variable renewable energy.

APA

Galeos, S. K., Kansal, R., & Sherwood, J. (2026). Reconsidering Planned Generation. RMI. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2026/06/rmi-2026-reconsidering-planned-generation.pdf

Chicago

Galeos, Selena Kay, Rachit Kansal, and James Sherwood. Reconsidering Planned Generation. RMI, 2026. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2026/06/rmi-2026-reconsidering-planned-generation.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Galeos |first1=Selena Kay |last2=Kansal |first2=Rachit |last3=Sherwood |first3=James |title=Reconsidering Planned Generation |publisher=RMI |date=June 2026 |url=https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2026/06/rmi-2026-reconsidering-planned-generation.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{galeos2026reconsidering, author = {Galeos, Selena Kay and Kansal, Rachit and Sherwood, James}, title = {{Reconsidering Planned Generation}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2026/06/rmi-2026-reconsidering-planned-generation.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }